Thread by @DKarol

Conventional wisdom today is Biden wins with a Democratic House, but narrowly Republican Senate, due to Senate map. Maybe wrong, but let's consider that scenario.This alignment (Prez+House vs. Senate) hasn't occurred since the days of Grover Cleveland! What would it produce? 🧵

Unlike today's R House, a GOP senate could block all Biden's exec branch &, importantly, judicial appointments. OTOH, Senate Rs are more moderate than House ones. Biden's bipartisan wins in 2021-2022 came via some of them. Maybe less debt limit drama? 2)

Would a narrow GOP Senate majority really blockade ALL judicial nominations for FOUR years? Unprecedented things have happened lately! But still seems extreme. If not, what would compromise look like? On legislation, 2nd terms are seldom great successes anyway. 3)

2nd term Bush failed on SocSec & immigration. Obama failed on guns & immigration. Obama's big 2nd term initiative was Iran deal, which didn't require Congressional majority,& which Trump undid. Biden cares about foreign policy. He retains some GOP support on Ukraine. 4)

President can do some things on the domestic side via unilateral action too, but question is what Biden could/would do that way that he hasn't already done, perhaps freed up in a 2nd term? Alternatively, what options for bipartisan deals with McConnell would be available? END