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David Karol Profile picture
David Karol
@DKarol
Govt & Politics Prof, @UofMaryland. Author: Red, Green and Blue & Party Position Change in American Politics. Co-author: The Party Decides.
Apr 25, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Conventional wisdom today is Biden wins with a Democratic House, but narrowly Republican Senate, due to Senate map. Maybe wrong, but let's consider that scenario.This alignment (Prez+House vs. Senate) hasn't occurred since the days of Grover Cleveland! What would it produce? 🧵 Unlike today's R House, a GOP senate could block all Biden's exec branch &, importantly, judicial appointments. OTOH, Senate Rs are more moderate than House ones. Biden's bipartisan wins in 2021-2022 came via some of them. Maybe less debt limit drama? 2)
Apr 24, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Very well-intended, but misguided piece. 1968 Humphrey nomination reflected strength not of "national parties", but was last hurrah of state/local bosses e.g. Daley. National committees NEVER picked Presidential or Congressional nominees & are stronger now than they were then.🧵 In 1968 Humphrey did not "exert control over party stalwarts" "as the sitting Vice-President" (!!!) State/local party elites nominated him because they preferred him. He was the last presidential nominee who didn't run in primaries, but there had been many before him. 2)
Aug 26, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Even if gerrymandering ISN'T driving polarization, it's still very bad! It skews representation, so reforms like independent redistricting commissions & proportional representation have merit. Then why push back on claims that it is behind polarization? 🧵 The claim that polarization stems from political chicanery like gerrymandering or some other "fixable" political rule, rather than being deeply rooted in society and the party system, is misleading and unhelpful. 2)
Dec 19, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It's wrong to discuss "The GOP" as if it's a thing so distinct from its base, as @RadioFreeTom does. Politicians represent voters. Often they share their views. They have SOME leeway, but Trump was nominated b/c he played to nativism/racism among R voters more than others did.1) Exit polls showed Trump's primary victories were NOT driven by independents or new voters. He was giving traditional Republican voters what they wanted. This IS the base GOP pols have attracted under Goldwater, Nixon, Reagan & the Bushes, awkward as it may now be for some. 2)