A couple of reactions to the Jake Sullivan speech in a quick thread. There is not a lot of *news* in this speech, but it nevertheless underscores a pretty profound shift in the U.S. approach towards capitalism, which it thinks should fundamentally change. brookings.edu/events/the-bid…
As Sullivan describes it, we're moving away from the clear "Parthenon" structure of the post-WWII global economy and towards something that looks very different, more in the style of Frank Gehry. (Queue the global trade architecture jokes.)
He also argued that the traditional approach to trade is based on "over-simplified assumptions." In light of digitization and climate change, that is absolutely true, and we do need urgent change. That doesn't mean, though, that we should ignore allies' desires to trade more.
Trade needs to be green, and it can be. This is the ambition of the GASSA, which did a lot of ~werk~ in the speech. But talks aren't going smoothly. If that's our big #trade hope, where does that leave us? This is only a bilateral agreement. We should be able to conclude it!
On export controls and the forthcoming EO on #outbound investment screening, Sullivan emphasized that they are "not a technology blockade" and that the administration is still committed to a small yard with a tall fence.
The speech was replete with support for the EU position, specifically referencing VDL's recent remarks on de-risking over de-coupling. This reflects a clear intention to reaffirm the transatlantic relationship. The transatlantic alliance is strong and only getting stronger.
A major call-to-action is that he says it will take "dedicated commitment" to make this new future a reality. That requires buy-in from a broad constituency of domestic actors and foreign allied economies. It also requires time, which isn't on the administration's side.
So, overall, the speech is light on news but heavy on philosophy. It calls for patience and confidence in building a more resilient international system, while calling for a substantial rewrite of geopolitical relations and the allied economic statecraft agenda.
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Heading into the third ministerial meeting of the TTC, is the United States really leveraging trade and industrial policy to "hoover up" EU industry? A 🧵
The US passed the Inflation Reduction Act in Aug 2022, providing $368 billion in climate change funding. The size of this package, heralded as the largest single climate in spend in history, is indeed historic. But it has also invited pushback from allies (ROK, EU, others).
Spending this much on climate isn't necessarily new. In its 2014-2020 budget, the EU spent $232.8 billion on climate. Under the EU recovery fund, spending on climate change will amount to roughly $45 billion/year, resulting in calls for the fund to be institutionalized.