Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #trade

Most recents (24)

#Trade is good. It is amazing that so many fail to comprehend how trade works. But, more importantly, even fewer the huge implications of it. Let's take a look. When two parties voluntarily exchange, they do so because each of them expect to become better off by doing so. It
doesn't matter if they are equally wealthy, or if one has a more pressing need. The simple truth still holds: they wouldn't exchange unless they saw reason to. Any trade that takes place is thus the result of each of the parties' striving for a situation that is more satisfying
to them. This makes exchange different from redistribution, which takes from one to give to another, and it requires the absence of fraud, where one party tricks the other into exchanging based on (intentionally) false information. Without the use or threat of physical force or
Read 16 tweets
There’s a lot of talk around comparative 🇬🇧/🇺🇸 standards when it comes to #food and future #trade deals; but what do these differences mean in practice? ⤵️

[Thread, 1/10]
EGGS 🥚

🇬🇧 - Minimum legal requirement of enriched cages (750 sq cm) + perch, nest box & litter.

🇺🇸 - No federal laws on hen welfare; voluntary guidelines suggest cages of 432 sq cm.

US 🍳 costs = 28% lower. That’s no yolk.

2/10
CHICKEN 🐓

🇬🇧 - Only potable water permitted to wash carcasses. Legal maximum stocking densities/AMR protocols apply.

🇺🇸 - No legal maximum stocking densities in major 🍗 producing states - Pathogen Reduction Treatments (eg chlorine dioxide) required to wash carcasses 🦠

3/10
Read 10 tweets
With the #UKCoordinationGroup & #EPlenary about to adopt a resolution on the EU-UK future relationship, here are some elements which would be of great help to integrated supply chains & logistics on both sides of the border @davidmcallister @berndlange @CHansenEU @EP_Trade 1/
1. 1st, a #transport agreement is an absolute must @davidmcallister @berndlange @CHansenEU @KarimaDelli : without an agreement, there is no fallback to allow traffic by road, rail & air freight to continue. Without it, planes won't fly & a very small number of EU & UK vehicles 2/
(trucks & vans) cld ever cross the border relying on a very limited number of ECMT permits (wouldn't even cover 5% of the traffic). The situation is just as serious for the island of Ireland since #transport is not dealt with in the Protocol part of the withdrawal agreement 3/
Read 15 tweets
The 2.1% #GDP print gives "optical illusion" of an economy chugging along at moderate 2% clip at end-2019, but composition of growth reveals softer picture.

More than 70% of Q4 advance came from temporary collapse in imports, business investment subdued & consumers + cautious
Average 2.3% GDP advance in 2019 is marginally weaker than 2.4% print in 2017 but this is another optical illusion as most recent 3 Qs mark economy’s worst performance since the 2016 slump.
Even momentum headed into 2020 is softer than the 2.3% y/y print would indicate
Consumer spending only +1.8% in Q4 as households exercised more caution in the face of elevated policy uncertainty and moderating income growth.

In 2020, cooler employment trends and lower income growth prospects will lead consumers to gently rein in spending
Read 8 tweets
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Phase One #Trade Deal: Chinese Commitments

1/ To purchase at least an additional $200 billion in U.S. exports over the next 2 years (base: 2017).

2/ To do more to crack down on the theft of American technology and corporate secrets by its companies and state entities.
3/ To avoid currency manipulation.

4/ To bring forward the planned opening of its capital market.

5/ To set up a system to resolve conflicts over drug patents.

6/ To endorse an enforcement system.
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Phase One #Trade Deal: Full Texts En/Cn

#China’s Ministry of Finance published both English and Chinese versions of the text - Statement
*Link (Chinese): bit.ly/3aivKcX
Read 28 tweets
Mr. Hogan is the new @Trade_EU Commissioner and is making his first trip outside the EU as part of the @vonderleyen Commission. He is speaking with @CSISEurope's Heather Conley and Scholl Chair Bill Reinsch.
Mr Hogan was previously Irish Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government. At The Europe Desk, we recently interview @HcMEntee, Irish Minister for European Affairs, on Ireland's role in transatlantic relations after #Brexit: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bri… @GUGlobalIrish
Read 47 tweets
My current #Working #Research #Topic: "A Review of the #CommonMonetaryArea of #SouthernAfrica: Are Client Countries Better-off De-Linking from the #Anchor #Economy?". I'm using #OptimumCurrencyArea #OCA #Theory to analyse the #CMA arrangement. Draft will be ready January end..!
The #CommonMonetaryArea of #SouthernAfrica or #CMA could seem to some (mostly the technically inclined) to be a no-brainer & a clear natural #OptimumCurrencyArea given the historical links between the #anchor #SouthAfrica & the #clients (#Lesotho #Eswatini & #Namibia)...
Be that as it may, 2020 marks 46 years since the #RandMonetaryArea - #RMA agreement and 34 years since the RMA was revised to establish the #CommonMonetaryArea - #CMA between #SouthAfrica, #Lesotho, Swaziland (now, #Eswatini) and #Namibia...
Read 10 tweets
Earlier ..
POTUS Signs the Phase One Trade Agreement! pscp.tv/w/cO86WzFxTFFH…
ORTIZ: "Thanks to Trump’s efforts, American manufacturers, farmers, and small businesses enjoy a more level playing field with their foreign competitors. And when the game isn’t rigged, no nation can match American business ingenuity and work ethic." trib.al/4S1QK0d
“Our negotiations were tough, honest, open, and respectful, leading us to this really incredible breakthrough.”

The US and China signed a much anticipated “phase one” Trade Deal, making an important breakthrough in the nearly 2-year-old #Trade War. theepochtimes.com/us-china-sign-…
Read 7 tweets
#China to ramp up purchases under Wed #trade deal by $200bln over 2 years using 2017 as base. Big question in US biz community how China reaches goal. ~$80bln for manufacturing means cars, aircraft. Would #China buy in econ slowdown, stalled market? One calls it “pure fantasy”.
Another flaw in the purchasing goals: so many issues for #China market left unaddressed. US biz says big purchases of farm goods, energy possible because of need. But for manufactured goods, services, they say need better access, reforms in Chinese market. 🤔
Finally, if purchase targets set so high, it is almost inevitable they will be a source of conflict in the future— which doesn’t help ease uncertainty. 😬 #China #trade
Read 3 tweets
Disappointing to see #trade only mentioned in relation to anti-dumping & level-playing field measures + 0 tariffs & quotas in @MichelBarnier speech. Surely negotiators could do better, even in 10 months. Industry will need more than that, on both sides @StefaanDeRynck 1/
0 tariffs & quotas is important but not sufficient. You need to ensure industry can actually benefit from it (Rules of origin!). Something @Kommerskoll knows something about... Considering how prod & #supplychains are integrated, industry needs + than bilateral cumulation 2/
For #customs, a bare min. is to seek to retain the UK in the EU safety & security zone so that entry & exit summary declarations are not required. That's in line with the EU security coop objective & is vital for accompanied roll-on roll-off (Dover-Calais, Dublin-Holyhead...) 3/
Read 12 tweets
"People are dying."

Elizabeth has witnessed the difference between the UK and US health systems. She knows the human cost of high prices. Don’t allow the US to sabotage access to meds on the #NHS.

EPIC THREAD!!!...
There has been a lot of debate on the impact of a #tradedeal with #Trump on #NHS medicine prices. Here’s a thread detailing why people are right to be worried… 1/
Firstly, the US has history. #Bigpharma spends more influencing politicians in Washington than any other industry. So the US has repeatedly used #trade agreements to force changes on countries that will boost the industry’s profits. 2/
Read 27 tweets
Hard factual headlines will follow this one:

"Tories have maxed up UK state debt by 2.5 times in just 9 and half years!" This is unprecedented in peacetime!

1/15
"Despite #Tory #Lies to the contrary? UK #economy is flat on its back, and likely to fall further - GDP was just 0.1% in the 6 months to 30sep19 being our worst showing since the financial crash!"

2/15
GDP(Gross Domestic Product) = total output of UK #economy, on which vital tax-take depends. HMG needs our tax (from companies, employees, householders) to fund OUR public services. Flat GDP growth (low % uplift) means less capability to fund services on which we depend!

3/15
Read 16 tweets
"Reclaiming monetary Sovereignty and sustainable prosperity in #Africa" starts now with @FadhelKaboub at the launch of the international conference "The quest for economic and Monetary sovereignty in the 21st century in Africa. @Mon_Sovereignty facebook.com/RosaLux.NorthA…
@FadhelKaboub @Mon_Sovereignty Follow the LIVE in the link below 👇🏿👇🏿facebook.com/RosaLux.NorthA…
@FadhelKaboub @Mon_Sovereignty @FadhelKaboub : In Tunisia, in the 70s two interesting patterns were unleashed with the opening of he economy.
☝🏼☝🏼Increase in trade deficit
☝🏼☝🏼increase of external debt
@Mon_Sovereignty #Tunisia
Read 11 tweets
💡 How to reconcile globalisation & #TaxJustice?

Some 🗝️ key points by 🎙️ @gabriel_zucman in another cracking #podcast episode of @TheTaxcast

🎧 ➡️ taxjustice.net/2019/10/25/tax…

THREAD 1/7
#TaxEvasion & #TaxAvoidance are not laws of nature, but policy choices. We can choose to:
🕵️‍♂️ allow secrecy
💸 lightly regulated the tax avoidance industry
🌪️allow tax competition to drive a #RaceToTheBottom

Or we can choose not to allow them 👇 2/7
The alternatively could be to choose to:
🧮 record wealth in registries
🏛️ regulate #TaxAvoidance industry
🌍 make international #tax coordination a core part of #Trade agreements & international cooperation

3/7
Read 8 tweets
1/n
#China #India #ModiXiSummit 2019.
Few Things not Talked, But are Conveyed & Understood in Unspoken & Informal Communication Arena !?

Twelve (12) Points;

1. #Kashmir ; No mediation Please
2. #CPEC through PoK ; NO GO Please
3. #Terrorism ; Radical Islamic Terrorism
Contd
2/n
...
4. #Pakistan ; Go, Went & Gone.
5. #POK ; Next. When ?
6. #Trade ; Need for Balance.
7. Mutual Trust, People to People - Contact & Connect.
8. Convergences on #WTO, Climate Change, Globalisation & Terrorism.
Contd...
3/n
...
9. Respect each other's Sensitivities, Core Concerns & National Interests.
10. Resolve Boundary Issue/Question/Dispute & Complete LAC Exchange of Perceptions. Peace & Tranquility at LAC.
Contd..
Read 5 tweets
Leave Fallacies Thread

Trade Section

All fallacies applied to or derived from 🇬🇧 Trading Situation
Trade 1.
EU provides Non-EU #trade

Leave (mostly) don't know the #EU provides trade deals for (including in negotiation) 80% of our global trade both in and outside of the EU

Tend to say leaving the EU and taking tariffs on EU trade opens up the world. When it closes it
Trade 2. Commonwealth EMOTION.
The belief is EU suppresses trade with the Commonwealth. Don't know, once you exclude individual negotiations with Canada/Aus/India, that the EU gives most of the Commonwealth tariff-free access to the EU. Instead, leave means going backwards.
Read 11 tweets
#OpportunityCost is the aggregate net cost of doing something, vis a vis 'not doing it' at all.

The initial project, option & prospect of #Brexit came with huge opportunity costs, which were too easily pre-discounted as #ProjectFear. 1/
The initial #Leave case, dramatised by the #BorisBus, contended that UK could save its £350m pw #EU 'gross membership contribution' and pass that 'saving' straight to the #NHS - as 'additional funding'. 2/
The #Leave case focused on saving UK's #EU gross membership cost in favour of #NHS.

It ignored regular #EU annual contributions back into a multiplicity of UK projects, which would obviously be stopped, if we ceased membership.
3/
Read 34 tweets
1) THREAD: What to expect if the #US 🇺🇸withdraws from #NATO? At the Körber #PolicyGame, we discussed this scenario w/ high-level officials and experts in coop w/ @IISS_org - here are the summarized results for the Twitterati community: (have mercy, it’s my first thread!)
2) We wanted to know: How would Europeans react in such a situation?What are interests and red lines? Thus, we invited a 🇫🇷, 🇩🇪, 🇵🇱,🇬🇧, and 🇺🇸 team to play our scenario. Crisis in the #South, Crisis in the #East - were #Europeans able to get their act together w/out the 🇺🇸? 💪 🇪🇺
3) The short answer is: willing yes ❕but able❔ First, most teams focused on reversing a #US withdrawal from #NATO by all possible means, offering the 🇺🇸concessions that were unthinkable before - from #trade to #energy. But what if that doesn’t help? 🤔
Read 19 tweets
1/

Current state of play with trade agreements planning for life after the EU:

Trade agreements that have been signed:

Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Antigua and Barbuda
Barbados
Belize
The Commonwealth of Dominica
The Dominican Republic
Grenada
The Republic of Guyana
Jamaica
2/

Saint Christopher and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panama
Chile
Madagascar
Mauritius
Seychelles
Zimbabwe
Faroe Islands
Iceland
Norway
Israel
Liechtenstein
Fiji
3/

Papua New Guinea
Palestinian Authority
South Korea
Switzerland

Mutual recognition agreements signed:

Australia
New Zealand
United States
Read 7 tweets
THREAD: CF40 just concluded the third Yichun Forum in northeast #China’s Heilongjiang province. Here are some takeaways from the keynote speakers: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/qAmqQE2XQOyU… 1/7
Chen Yuan, chairman of CF40 Executive Council: China should reconsider the strategic significance of its foreign reserves, turning it into the focus of financial
battlefield in the future from its past role as a highly reliable core fortune. 2/7
Zhou Xiaochuan, former #PBoC governor: Only when #RMB is truly internationalized, can China effectively deal with the side effects of various distortions at the global monetary market which is now dominated by US dollar. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
1. #News ~ Google Insider @Perpetualmaniac: "people have been waiting for this Google Snowden moment..." Hundreds of leaked Google documents available on @Project_Veritas website... #TRUMP

2. #News ~ NEW: Google "Machine Learning Fairness" Whistleblower Goes Public, says: "burden lifted off of my soul," Leaks Hundreds of Internal Documents #TRUMP

3. #News ~ Democrats/ Leftists THREATEN MURDER OF EL PASO VICTIM'S FAMILY b/c they met with President Trump During His Visit to Texas thegatewaypundit.com/2019/08/leftis… #Trump @realDonaldTrump
Read 71 tweets
Thread on some thoughts on @ewarren's plan to demand poor countries meet labor & environmental standards to trade with the US & on @Noahpinion's critique.

1) Yes, Clinton-era free trade agreements caused a multi-decade job bleed from the US, especially in manufacturing
2) Free trade generally benefits lower cost providers. Therefore, a net positive for emerging nations.

3) There are things we could have done to phase in free trade deals, like boost investment & re-training in other industries, to limit the downsides. But hindsight is 20/20.
4) While ALL consumers benefit from lower prices from free trade & much smaller groups of workers benefit from protectionism, it's the job of a nation's leaders to balance the two. That did not happen here. The digital boom abandoned the analog workers of exported industries.
Read 12 tweets
🇩🇪 It confirms that German GDP likely ⬇ in 2Q while proxies pointed to the risk of another ⬇ in 3Q (technical recession).

This scenario would add pressure on #Germany to launch a stimulus package to support growth at both the national and 🇪🇺 level.

🇪🇺 Trichet Sees Next Crisis if #ECB doesn’t get Help - Handelsblatt
handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldp…
🇩🇪 #Germany’s economy needs a fiscal boost - FT
ft.com/content/5ea7db…
Read 67 tweets
1/13 On oil & oil equity prices:

So why does oil and oil equities underperform the S&P and NASDAQ in 2019 by a wide margin? #OOTT #brent #WTI #oilprice
2/13 As shown by Crescat Capital, this is a growth/ETF/momentum market which left commodities at 50 year relative historical lows! @crescatkevin @TaviCosta
3/13 So how do oil prices format?

Short term, spot prices #trade around inventory levels.

However, it is hard for #Brent and oil equities to go up on declining inventories while demand/macro weakens (macro outlook uncertain). #OOTT #WTI @HFI_Research
Read 13 tweets

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