1/ Yesterday’s imposition by the High Representative @OHR_BiH of a decision supposed to “unblock” the formation of a government in the Federation of #Bosnia and Herzegovina was the result of a badly executed imposition on October 2, as polls were closing, which was likewise…
2/ …supposed to “unblock” government formation. It has nothing to do with peace implementation – the High Rep’s mandate. It is a doubling-down on a failed policy pursued by the US and the EU to contain the problem and empower local oligarchs as guarantors of “stability.”
3/ The EU opposes such impositions on principle but will be relieved by the result, as short-lived as it will no doubt be. Instead of asking themselves why their Balkan policy keeps making matters worse, the US and the EU are digging in.
4/ DPC has for years been calling for a comprehensive strategic policy review. Now is the moment to get serious and ditch a failed policy, and those who are pushing it.
5/ We will provide a closer analysis of the imposition and its effects following this afternoon’s session of the Federation parliament session.

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More from @DPC_global

Apr 29
1/ The Federation of BiH (FBiH) House of Representatives voted a new government into office yesterday, following a set of impositions by @OHR_BiH High Representative Schmidt on Thursday designed to enable them to do so.
2/ The ugly scenes in & outside parliament, and the means (money, threats, ministerial posts) by which both parliamentary groups, the (now) ruling coalition and the opposition,…
3/ …over the last months have tried to assemble/prevent a parliamentary majority are a vivid demonstration of the dirty political business Schmidt and his Western backers allowed themselves to be drawn into.
Read 32 tweets
Mar 27
1/ As EUSR @MiroslavLajcak is visiting Berlin tomorrow to drum up support for the Ohrid agreement, here is a look at what was actually agreed:
2/ When @JosepBorrellF took the stage late Saturday (March 18) in Ohrid to declare “we have a deal” on the EU Kosovo-Serbia agreement, he left observers puzzled what had actually been agreed on in substance,…
3/ …even after the implementation annex was subsequently released.
Read 33 tweets
Mar 27
1/ In advance of the US-convened 2nd Summit for Democracy, DPC’s latest policy paper,
“Gaslighting Democracy in the Western Balkans: Why Jettisoning Democratic Values is Bad for the Region and the Liberal World,” is now online
democratizationpolicy.org/gaslighting-de…
2/ While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted the West to rally to the cause of defending democracy and freedom against hostile authoritarian powers, the defense of these democratic values has been substantially sidelined in the WB6.
3/ The paper assesses the damage wrought by an increasingly transactional and values-free Western policy, both to the region and US and EU credibility.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 16, 2022
1/ There is agreement on a state-level government in Bosnia and Herzegovina – but don’t pop the champagne yet. The deal at state level is cynical transactionalism at its best; Federation governance remains precarious. Re-cap:
2/ The main ostensible rationale for @OHR_BiH’s election night imposition of changes to the election law and FBiH constitution was to eliminate the ability of parties – read the HDZ BiH – to block govt formation via the Croat caucus in the House of Peoples.
3/ Rather than eliminating this capability, the change aimed to reduce the HDZ’s motive to do so by giving it leverage to impede other parties in the FBiH HoP from nominating executives – President/VP – by raising the threshold from about 1/3 to nearly half of delegates (11/23).
Read 17 tweets
Oct 3, 2022
After two months of uncertainty, @OHR_BiH High Rep Schmidt last night imposed a broad set of amendments to the Federation of BiH Constitution & the BiH Election Law.
ohr.int/measures-to-im…
He retreated from his original July proposal facing strong domestic and international resistance.
The timing is insidious. The original plan in July was in violation of European and international conventions on political rights; but changing the rules of the game immediately AFTER the closure of voting makes a mockery of BiH citizens’ active and passive voting rights.
Read 33 tweets
Sep 29, 2022
1/ In the run-up to general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, more ink has been spilled about what @OHR_BiH might impose and when than on expected election results. Such a move – before, on, or after October 2 – would alter the electoral architecture to a Dayton-minus status.
2/ The Dayton architecture was always about tribal power allocation among “constituent parties,” never about government functionality or accountability to citizens – that’s why it had been foreseen by its Western architects as a transitional arrangement to peace.
3/ What the domestic signatories (and their neighbor patrons) cared about was power, its assurance, and impunity.
Read 24 tweets

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