1/ Today the UN Security Council has #Bosnia and Herzegovina #BiH on its agenda: a report by @OHR_BiH and a vote on renewing the @euforbih mandate.

The High Representative’s report is available here:
ohr.int/64th-report-of… 2/ Apart from self-justification for the Oct 2022 and April 2023 “reform” impositions and unwarranted positivity on EU progress (inter alia), the report is generally strong – and particularly damning on secessionist steps (points 27-36) and other obstruction by RS authorities.

1/ The latest chapter in the West’s struggle w/ the ruling elites in #Bosnia and Herzegovina dismantling the rule of law is reaching its endpoint tomorrow… 2/…w/ a final vote by the BiH Parliamentary Assembly’s House of Peoples on an amended Law on the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council (HJPC).

1/ The ruling by @ECHR_CEDH in the Kovačević v. #BiH case is, to repurpose a quote by then-VP Biden, a “big fucking deal:” it challenges central elements of the Dayton structure and business model of #Bosnia and Herzegovina politics.

hudoc.echr.coe.int/app/conversion… 2/ It represents a leap in the development of ECtHR case law from Sejdić-Finci through Pilav, Šlaku, Zornićand Pudarić, but builds on them, also finding that Article 1 of Protocol 12 was violated in two instances.

1/ DPC senior associates Valery Perry and @KurtBassuener recently took a road trip in the western & central BiH. This provided an opportunity to see a sample of communities that have been neglected as a result of malgovernance & years of failed Western policy in the region. 2/ An overwhelming theme was the strong presence of the diaspora… The most commonly sighted license plates were from Austria, Germany and Switzerland, along with neighbors Croatia and Serbia, though the Netherlands, Sweden, Italy and France were also strongly represented.

1/ A big thank you to all the diplomats, officials, and parliamentarians who took their time to discuss the situation in the Western Balkans this week in Brussels and The Hague, following similar briefings in Washington and Berlin. (Thread) 2/ The seriousness of the situation in the Western Balkans is slowly sinking in, even with executives – yet the way ahead is by no means clear to many. A few observations.

1/ Dodik’s latest challenge to the #Bosnia and Herzegovina constitutional order is a step escalation above prior attacks on BiH institutions and judiciary. The BiH Constitutional Court configuration is “original Dayton,” black letter law. 2/ Had we not accommodated Dodik’s previous challenges and maintained a credible deterrent, we wouldn’t find ourselves in this situation. None of the statements – US, EU, UK, OHR – even imply action in response. And the EU reflex is to absorb the challenge and seek accommodation.

1/ The events of the past days illustrate that the West is committed to a #WesternBalkans policy centered on @avucic, with willful blindness towards his depredations against independent media, justice, and public/civic life and his irridentist designs on neighbors. 2/ This has been the case for some time.
democratizationpolicy.org/gaslighting-de…

1/ In advance of tomorrow’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on US policy toward the Western Balkans, DPC would like to outline the main questions we hope will be asked and answered.

foreign.senate.gov/hearings/asses… 2/ First, how can the US government defend its Serbia and Vučić-centric policy in light of the devastating reporting by the NY Times that detailed the criminal, violent, and anti-democratic links that permeate Serbian domestic politics and society...

nytimes.com/2023/05/03/mag…

1/ The Federation of BiH (FBiH) House of Representatives voted a new government into office yesterday, following a set of impositions by @OHR_BiH High Representative Schmidt on Thursday designed to enable them to do so. 2/ The ugly scenes in & outside parliament, and the means (money, threats, ministerial posts) by which both parliamentary groups, the (now) ruling coalition and the opposition,…

1/ Yesterday’s imposition by the High Representative @OHR_BiH of a decision supposed to “unblock” the formation of a government in the Federation of #Bosnia and Herzegovina was the result of a badly executed imposition on October 2, as polls were closing, which was likewise… 2/ …supposed to “unblock” government formation. It has nothing to do with peace implementation – the High Rep’s mandate. It is a doubling-down on a failed policy pursued by the US and the EU to contain the problem and empower local oligarchs as guarantors of “stability.”

1/ As EUSR @MiroslavLajcak is visiting Berlin tomorrow to drum up support for the Ohrid agreement, here is a look at what was actually agreed: 2/ When @JosepBorrellF took the stage late Saturday (March 18) in Ohrid to declare “we have a deal” on the EU Kosovo-Serbia agreement, he left observers puzzled what had actually been agreed on in substance,…

1/ In advance of the US-convened 2nd Summit for Democracy, DPC’s latest policy paper,
“Gaslighting Democracy in the Western Balkans: Why Jettisoning Democratic Values is Bad for the Region and the Liberal World,” is now online
democratizationpolicy.org/gaslighting-de… 2/ While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted the West to rally to the cause of defending democracy and freedom against hostile authoritarian powers, the defense of these democratic values has been substantially sidelined in the WB6.

1/ There is agreement on a state-level government in Bosnia and Herzegovina – but don’t pop the champagne yet. The deal at state level is cynical transactionalism at its best; Federation governance remains precarious. Re-cap: 2/ The main ostensible rationale for @OHR_BiH’s election night imposition of changes to the election law and FBiH constitution was to eliminate the ability of parties – read the HDZ BiH – to block govt formation via the Croat caucus in the House of Peoples.

After two months of uncertainty, @OHR_BiH High Rep Schmidt last night imposed a broad set of amendments to the Federation of BiH Constitution & the BiH Election Law.
ohr.int/measures-to-im… He retreated from his original July proposal facing strong domestic and international resistance.

1/ In the run-up to general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, more ink has been spilled about what @OHR_BiH might impose and when than on expected election results. Such a move – before, on, or after October 2 – would alter the electoral architecture to a Dayton-minus status. 2/ The Dayton architecture was always about tribal power allocation among “constituent parties,” never about government functionality or accountability to citizens – that’s why it had been foreseen by its Western architects as a transitional arrangement to peace.

At today’s European Council #EUCO, Zagreb racked up another success in pushing its aggressive agenda for #Bosnia and Herzegovina. Based on the information presently available, the following reference to #BiH will appear in the Conclusions: “The European Council discussed the prolonged political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The European Union reiterates its commitment to the European perspective of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Western Balkans…