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1/ So, entering the fighter debate. A lot has been coverd and discussed about it, here a short 🧵about some things I could not fit into this 👇 @ecfr comment.
ecfr.eu/article/the-ca…
ecfr.eu/article/the-ca…
2/ 🇺🇦 are at serve disadvantage for both tactical and technical reasons.
The tactical are hard to change. Fighters need to hug the ground to avoid 🇷🇺 GBAD. That means the range of whatever AA missile they fire is reduced. Because the missile has to waste a lot of energy climbing
The tactical are hard to change. Fighters need to hug the ground to avoid 🇷🇺 GBAD. That means the range of whatever AA missile they fire is reduced. Because the missile has to waste a lot of energy climbing
3/ ... instead of range.
🇷🇺 missiles gain range by firing at low-flying targets from above.
Regardless what missile is used, even hypothetically, 🇷🇺 will outrange 🇺🇦.
🇺🇦 will have to sneak up to ntercept any 🇷🇺 plane. But, to fulfill their mission, ...
🇷🇺 missiles gain range by firing at low-flying targets from above.
Regardless what missile is used, even hypothetically, 🇷🇺 will outrange 🇺🇦.
🇺🇦 will have to sneak up to ntercept any 🇷🇺 plane. But, to fulfill their mission, ...
4/ ... they need to be able to shoot at the 🇷🇺 strike planes carrying glide boms.
If they can avoid/evade 🇷🇺 fighters, that's fine as well. You don't need to go into a lobbing duel with R-37M carrying Mig-31.
If they can avoid/evade 🇷🇺 fighters, that's fine as well. You don't need to go into a lobbing duel with R-37M carrying Mig-31.
5/ 🇺🇦 Soviet legacy vintage fighters are bad at sneaking up. One reason is the radar. The baseline Rubin (Mig-29) and Mech (Su-27) radars not only lack the range of modern 🇷🇺 PESA(AESA radars.
They are mechanically tilted cassegran dish radars with party analogue computers.
They are mechanically tilted cassegran dish radars with party analogue computers.
6/ Their radar beam is much wider than that of a modern radar, and needs more pulses & energy to detect a target. Modern radar warning receivers (RWR) may pick the signal up, even if the 🇺🇦 radar only scans them.
7/ But they also lack "track while scan" (TWS) modes, hence if they start tracking a target, they can't scan for ofther aircraft flying around.
Tracking is even easier for 🇷🇺 RWR to pick up, and if the 🇷🇺 plane doesn't know there were 🇺🇦 planes around, it knows now.
Tracking is even easier for 🇷🇺 RWR to pick up, and if the 🇷🇺 plane doesn't know there were 🇺🇦 planes around, it knows now.
8/ Then, to fire at a 🇷🇺 aircraft, the 🇺🇦 aircraft has to constantly illuminate the target with a high energy radar beam. The R-27ER1 needs the echo from the beam to find its target.
The 🇺🇦 needs to have its radar always pointed towards the 🇷🇺 aircraft. If it banks away ...
The 🇺🇦 needs to have its radar always pointed towards the 🇷🇺 aircraft. If it banks away ...
9/ ... the missile would be lost. That means it needs to close in towards 🇷🇺 lines and fighters.
To reach its maximum range, a R-27ER1 takes more than a minute.
In the 🇷🇺plane, even the dumbest RWR recognises the beam and allerts the pilot. The Russian plane takes evasive action.
To reach its maximum range, a R-27ER1 takes more than a minute.
In the 🇷🇺plane, even the dumbest RWR recognises the beam and allerts the pilot. The Russian plane takes evasive action.
10/ The 🇺🇦 plane has unmased itself, and becmes a target.
Now let's assume 🇺🇦 had old 🇦🇺🇪🇸🇫🇮🇺🇸 F-18 to do the same thing. (btw. I don't know why no one talks abut F-18s, carrier capable aircraft are much better suited to operate from improvised strips).
Now let's assume 🇺🇦 had old 🇦🇺🇪🇸🇫🇮🇺🇸 F-18 to do the same thing. (btw. I don't know why no one talks abut F-18s, carrier capable aircraft are much better suited to operate from improvised strips).
11/ The F-18s AN/APG-65 or AN/APG-73 is still meachanically scaned, but with digital beam control. It has TWS capability. So the cance to detect it, are much lower.
The pilot does not loose situational awarness while tracking a target.
The pilot does not loose situational awarness while tracking a target.
12/ Moreover, it would fire a AIM-120. This missile does not require any iluminatiuon. Either it gets tracking data from the launching aircraft, or it memorises where the enemy aircraft was.
Once close, it switches on its own radar and rides the attack home.
Once close, it switches on its own radar and rides the attack home.
13/ Only now the 🇷🇺 aircraft would see it is under attack. And the 🇺🇦 fighter may have turned away already, again hugging the ground, hiding in ground clutter.
🇺🇦 pilots would survive this much longer. And it would be a more serious threat to 🇷🇺 aircraft, restraining operations.
🇺🇦 pilots would survive this much longer. And it would be a more serious threat to 🇷🇺 aircraft, restraining operations.
14/ For this to be effective, 🇺🇦 would not need a lot of fighters. Just sufficient to be able to always fly CAP missions. So all above 24 aircraft.
They would also need NATO compatible early warning radars and communication equipment for ground control. But this ...
They would also need NATO compatible early warning radars and communication equipment for ground control. But this ...
15/ ... is already being delivered, because you need it to integrate Western SAM systems into an integrated air defence network.
Scaning the German lists for military assistance I find enough hints this is dome already.
Scaning the German lists for military assistance I find enough hints this is dome already.
16/ You saw today's pictures from the attack against 🇺🇦 cities. This is a cynical 🇷🇺 strategy to keep 🇺🇦 SAM close to cities and away from the front.
Delivering fighters is the fastest way to counter it. Fighters are so substitute for SAM.
Delivering fighters is the fastest way to counter it. Fighters are so substitute for SAM.
17/ But production rates of SAM systems have their limits, and you can't increase them on a short notice.
18/ some further readings: this excellent report by @RUSI_org on the air war: rusi.org/explore-our-re…
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