Thread by @lucindomino

#OnTheRoad to 2025: The ABCs of Senate Elections in the Philippines (🧵)

Philippine politics tends to follow seasons. By June of this year, the 1st session of the 19th Congress will adjourn. A month after that, Congress will reconvene for the 2nd session during PBBM's second SONA. This, in turn, gets the ball rolling for the 2024 Budget intramurals.

Along the way, there will be times when the headlines heat up. But things (usually) calm down and reset into "ordinary time". The next big "Event" of the political cycle is the 2025 Senate elections.

And as early as now, it is likely that potential candidates are making preparations for their 2025 campaigns. Surveys are also sporadically popping up. The first was a November 2022 survey, which had the following results:

Then you have the Publicus Survey (conducted March 2-5, 2022)

And then most recently, the OCTA survey (conducted March 24-28). The results are wildly different since the list of possible candidates- and as a result, voter preferences- are still fluid and inconsistent.

politics.com.ph/2023/04/25/mac…

With that said, this thread is not yet about the 2025 elections. Rather, it is a "back to basics" about Senate elections in general- consequences of institutional design, common themes and strategies, as well as the factors which make each race unique.

First, we need to understand the institution itself. Under the 1987 Philippine Constitution, the legislative power is exercised by a bicameral (two chamber) Congress, which is divided into an upper chamber (the Senate) and a lower chamber (the House of Representatives).

The Senate has 24 seats. Of those 24, 12 are elected every 3 years. This is due to the transitory provisions of the '87 Constitution: all 24 seats were open for election in 1992, But of the 24, the top 12 received a full 6-year term, while the remainder got a 3-year term.

Each member of the Senate is eligible for two six-year terms, after which they are term-limited and must sit out one election. However, nothing prevents a former Senator from running again in the next election.

But at the same time, former Senators tend to face a "demographic cliff", e.g. their base tends to age-out over time, and they are unable to appeal to newer voters which makes it harder to stage a return. In other words, nala-laos.

So far, there are no quantitative studies on this phenomenon, and some tend to have an easier time making it back than others. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that many venerable names have struggled to return (see: Osmena, Magsaysay, Aquino)

Note the distinction between seats and members. While 12 seats are up for election every 3 years, not all are vacant. It is a mix of seats for reelection and seats vacated by term-enders. For example, in 2025, 7 seats are up for reelection, while 5 are vacant due to term limits.

And even if 12 Senators will be elected, not every voter will have a complete slate by election day. Many only have a slate of eight. This is why the conventional wisdom is that seats 1-7 are generally "safer" than seats 8-12, where "magic" can occur.

cnnphilippines.com/news/2022/5/2/…

There is also no hard and fast rule on vacant seats. For example, in 2001, a special election was held, simultaneous with the midterm election, to serve the remainder of ex-Sen. Guingona's term (who was appointed VP) Honasan was elected as 13th Senator. elibrary.judiciary.gov.ph/thebookshelf/s…

But in 2010, 13th-placer Hontiveros was not allowed to occupy Senator Benigno S. Aquino III's seat (according to COMELEC, his seat was technically not vacant, since he would have returned to finish his term in the Senate had he lost the 2010 race).

sunstar.com.ph/article/194448…

Finally, each Senator is elected "at large". This means that the entire country is treated as one whole district, in contrast to the House of Reps, where each member is elected to a specific, geographically and legally defined district.

In this sense, a Senator has the same constituency as the President and Vice-President. In fact, the Senate was designed specifically to "foster presidential ambition"

quezon.ph/2007/06/06/an-…

As such, candidates which already have a national profile (such as celebrities) tend to have an advantage.

https://twitter.com/lucindomino/status/1649112417954304002

But other factors play a role as well. For example, endorsement by a popular President can encourage vote-clustering and lift unknown candidates up.

researchgate.net/profile/Erika-…

At the same time, association with an unpopular President can tank a Senatorial slate. The most infamous case was 2007, when the opposition came up with a golden slogan against a PGMA tainted by Garci: "Isang boto lang po, laban sa nakaupo"

quezon.ph/2007/06/06/an-…

But unlike the P/VP races, where voters get one exclusive vote each, the Senate race has 12 seats to fill. In this sense, the P/VP race is an "ala carte order" (you get one dish) while a Senate race is a buffet (you get 12 choices).

Finally, Senate elections tend to come in two flavors. The first is a Senate race which coincides with the P/VP election, where each P/VP fields a slate of 12. In these elections, the Senate race tends to take a backseat to the P/VP race, in terms of news coverage.

The second type is the "midterm", which coincides with an incumbent President's term. As such, the Senate race becomes a "referendum" on the incumbent President, who can opt to shoot ads and "stump" for his slate in sorties.

And in accordance with this theme, the existing parties tend to coalesce and simplify into administration and opposition slates. The President, and the leader of the opposition, can cut ads and "stump" for their slate during sorties.

But at the same time, a midterm Senate race tends to focus on the candidates themselves, who can campaign individually or as a slate, depending on their arrangement with the campaign manager.

Midterms also provide an example when "shared" and "independent" candidates play an unexpected role. See: Villar and Pangilinan in 2007. And the Poe-Chiz-Legarda debacle (which I remember vividly, having worked on that campaign) news.abs-cbn.com/nation/02/21/1…

In summary: while certain themes and strategies which recur, each Senate election has its own dynamics. And attention must be paid not only on the marketing of each candidate but also on the specific dynamics of the "political time" when the race is taking place.