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Luc Dioneda Profile picture
Luc Dioneda
@lucindomino
Political scientist by training; legis/speech writer by profession; political observer/writer on X and Medium. Also behind Gago the Bounty Fresh Chicken.
May 28 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Hindi talaga dapat i-downplay ang Duterte influence. For all the hype over Bam and Kiko, the Duterte side still scored a tactical victory in the 2025 elections. Sa DDS yung 1 of the surprise winners (Marcoleta), sa kanila yung # 1 (Go), they saved 2 of the candidates who were widely expected to lose- Imee Marcos and Camille Villar. Jimmy Bondoc and Philip Salvador got 10 million freaking votes each.
Jan 29, 2024 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
All the President's Men: A Thread (🧵) on Factional Dynamics in the Marcos-Duterte Turf War On the Marcos side. During and right after the campaign, there were three main groups:

- The First Lady (LAM)
- The Speaker (FMR)
- BFFs (Rodriguez/Lagdameo/Abalos)
- FPGMA + Inday

(Imee and Imelda out of the circle immediately)

bilyonaryo.com/2022/06/26/the…
Oct 24, 2023 • 31 tweets • 6 min read
Manok Ko Yan! Philippine Elections as Gambling: A thread (🧵) A painting by Juanito Torres entitled ‘Tupada’, depicting prominent personalities of the 2022 Presidential elections as roosters. Photo from Art Lounge Manila/Instagram. If you pay attention to Filipino discussions on elections, you will hear many figures of speech related to gambling, specifically cockfighting. You might hear people referring to a candidate as their "Manok" (e.g., "Manok ko yan").
Jun 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Over in the United States, the GOP is adjusting to the new contours of identity politics. They have also had some success in getting votes among hispanics and african-americans: Related: pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…
Jun 18, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
One name might be familiar here-
Davao del Norte Governor Edwin Jubahib. You might remember him from this moment during the 2022 campaign. Image Gov. Jubahib is a former member of Partido Reporma, and an ally of former Speaker Alvarez. Are the remnants of Partido Reporma shifting to Marcos? Recall also the recent survey commissioned by a Partido Reporma member, Arnel Ty:

Jun 17, 2023 • 29 tweets • 7 min read
Open Season: A 🧵 on the recent SWS polls and their implications for the SONA and the 2025 Senatorial Elections The First Regular Session of the 19th Congress adjourned "sine die" last June 2. It ended with a marathon effort to pass the controversial Maharlika Bill, perhaps to add some substance to President Marcos Jr.'s legislative achievements:
news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/01/23/…
Jun 7, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A showdown looms! Image Also, have you noticed that the initials "G.M.A." are nowhere in this statement? It seems to signal that their fight is not just about who gets to wield the gavel in the Bigger House.
May 15, 2023 • 26 tweets • 5 min read
Booster Shot: 10 More Stories from Sen. Flavier's autobiography (🧵) Image So it goes without saying that the Twitterati enjoyed this thread. So here's another 10 stories from Sen. Flavier's autobiography, "From Barrio to Senado".

May 9, 2023 • 38 tweets • 7 min read
From Barrio to Senado: A Prescription on Humility and Humor in Public Service from Dr. Juan Flavier (🧵) Image Despite only being 4'11 in height, very few politicians loom as large in the popular consciousness as Dr. Juan Flavier. And with good reason. He remains one of the most beloved public servants, both as Secretary of Health ('92-'95) and as a Senator ('95-'01, '01-'07).
Apr 29, 2023 • 28 tweets • 7 min read
#OnTheRoad to 2025: The ABCs of Senate Elections in the Philippines (🧵) Image Philippine politics tends to follow seasons. By June of this year, the 1st session of the 19th Congress will adjourn. A month after that, Congress will reconvene for the 2nd session during PBBM's second SONA. This, in turn, gets the ball rolling for the 2024 Budget intramurals.
Apr 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Might even be an indirect psyop technique to gain support among the locals? See also:

dazeddigital.com/life-culture/a…
Apr 20, 2023 • 31 tweets • 8 min read
The Persistence (and Limits) of Celebrity Politics: Lito Lapid, Bong Revilla, and the 2025 Senate Midterm Elections (🧵) For over a year now, I've been writing about the upcoming 2025 Senate midterm elections. The first of these was a thread on the reelection of the "Duterte Boys" (Go, dela Rosa, and Tolentino) as a litmus test of former President Duterte's political capital (separate from the VP)
Sep 3, 2022 • 26 tweets • 6 min read
How Authoritarian Propaganda Works, According to Theodor Adorno: a 🧵 First, a recapitulation. For the past two Presidential elections, I've been developing a theory of the turn of the Philippine electorate towards authoritatian values.
Sep 1, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
This piece by Prof. Miriam Coronel-Ferrer is one of my favorite articles on Ph politics. It provides a window on generational turnover in our political system.

…nehistorysourcematerials.blogspot.com/2011/02/readin… The article is written in the context of 1998. Two succesive Presidential elections and several Congressional and local races had brought new faces to the scene.
Jul 29, 2022 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
Why the "Opposition" is weak: a 🧵 on the consequence of weak political parties and high barriers to electoral office. Politically speaking, we are in the Age of the Supermajority. President Marcos Jr. (and his predecessor President Duterte) are/were emboldened by weak political opposition.
Jul 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I usually hesitate to discuss politics in terms of dichotomies, but this right here falls squarely into the concept of the "Banality of Evil". It's the idea that evil isn't necessarily diabolic. It can be routine and perpetrated without thought.

themarginalian.org/2017/02/07/han… Or in OP's case, perpetrated by otherwise "kind" or "nice" people.
Jul 27, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
If she has plans of running in '28, then she should consider opening an exploratory committee no later than '25. At the same time, she should start going around the country. Continue the medical missions, relief ops and go on a nationwide listening tour. Before planning even starts on the "How" of a Hontiveros campaign, she first has to figure out the "Why?" of her campaign, and where it intersects with "What do the people want?". An exploratory committee/listening tour could help with both.
Jul 25, 2022 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
President Marcos Jr.'s first State of the Nation Address (SONA) in Political Time: A 🧵 By this point, analysts and observers alike will have drawn their conclusions on President Marcos Jr.'s First SONA. Most will use some combination of rhetorical and policy analysis. In this thread, I propose using "political time" as a lense to gague his speech.
Jul 24, 2022 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
Why is security so tight at President Marcos II's first SONA? 1969-1970 was a decisive turning point on the road to the declaration of Martial Law. First and foremost, 1969 was Marcos' reelection year. Not a single President up to that point, other than Manuel Quezon, had successfully secured a second term.
Jun 10, 2022 • 51 tweets • 10 min read
The Undercurrent: Part 1 a 🧵 on a possible future of the kakampink wave It is June 10 as I write this thread. A month has passed since the May 9 elections. Most of the heat from the campaign, and we are in the process of transitioning to the Marcos II administration.
Jun 10, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
In government budget-speak, there is a difference between programs and projects. NOAH is a project- "A special undertaking carried out within a definite timeframe and intended to result in some pre-determined measure of goods and services." Once a government project ends, it is up to the proponent to justify its continuation. In the case of PROJECT NOAH, it started in 2012 under DOST , was granted 2 extensions, then was continued under UP in 2017.

up.edu.ph/up-to-continue…