🧵Given the recent speech by Prigozhin, it is important to clarify the situation in Bakhmut. Based on compiled information that I am allowed to publish, it is true that Wagner is responsible for assaults and advances in Bakhmut. So why do things look grim on their end?
2/ Wagner convicts have limited value and only make advances when heavy artillery fire is present. If the artillery is suppressed or runs out of ammunition, they don't make progress. Unfortunately, the lack of ammunition on our side hinders counter-battery fire.
3/ Serious tensions exist between Wagner and the Ministry of Defense. These tensions exist not only at the top level but also at the regular level. Some Wagner units act as policing forces, commit crimes, and openly disrespect military commanders with impunity.
4/ Poor cooperation between Wagner and MoD results in a lack of coordination between them. The MoD only establishes control over territories captured by Wagner, while Wagner continues to assault forward without proper coordination.
5/ The emergence of multiple "PMCs": Wagner, Potok, Veteran, Yenisey, Skif, Tigr, Irbis, Rys' and Wolves have created additional coordination complexities, including logistical challenges, a lack of clear command chains, and insufficient intelligence exchange and coordination.
6/ Example: A newly formed "Wolves" squad drove to Ukrainian lines without coordination, attempting to "gain reputation". However, due to their lack of knowledge about the area and the situation, they drove into a landmine and died. The wounded members had to be evacuated.
7/ In Bakhmut, Wagner manages to move forward by turning defensive positions into rubble with intense artillery, mortar, TOS, and air support fire. They are also aware of the Ukrainian forces' lack of artillery ammunition and are not afraid of counter-battery fire.
8/ However, Prigozhin himself admitted that without artillery ammo, Wagner is ineffective, and they can only move forward with huge losses that they cannot sustain. The MoD seems reluctant to provide more support, likely due to their fear of a counter-attack at any moment.
9/ Without artillery superiority on the field, Wagner's tactics don't work and yield no results and lead to fruitless and unsustainable casualty ratios. We need much more ammo, artillery and other counter-battery means to nullify their assault capabilities.
10/ Wagner troops lack both training and experience in preparing complex and organized defenses. Organizing defenses, establishing firing positions, and managing logistics in a well-structured manner is difficult, and Wagner is not designed or equipped for it.
11/ While it's unclear if our command will decide to counter-attack in the area, it's quite possible that what russia was able to achieve in the course of 9 months will be reversed within a week and result in a breakthrough and encirclement of Horlivka and the rears of Donetsk.
12/ While this is mere speculation on my part, considering the poor state of their troops in Bakhmut, launching a counter-offensive in this direction could cause a serious blow to russian morale. This is just one of many potential directions for such an attack.
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1/ This thread reveals new and important details about Wagner's activities in Mali, shedding light on potential implications for regional stability and the impact on Ukraine. Additionally, it highlights important information that may have been previously overlooked
2/ On April 22nd, radical groups targeted a military base in Sevare, Mali. The Mopti airfield, which is utilized by both the Malian armed forces and "Wagner," was their primary target. This airfield serves as a home base for aviation equipment.
3/ According to publicly available information, the attack was carried out by detonating two cars filled with explosives. Despite this, satellite images indicate that there was no significant damage to the infrastructure of the military base, airport, or equipment.
1/ Another noteworthy development in the ongoing invasion is the reported use of anti-thermal blankets/coats by russian soldiers in close proximity to Donetsk.
2/ According to the information provided by our soldiers, russian sabotage groups (DRGs) are reportedly using these anti-thermal blankets/coats to avoid detection by thermal cameras and UAV's.
3/ A video previously published on a russian Telegram channel allegedly demonstrates the effectiveness of the product, displaying how a soldier can remain undetected under the anti-thermal blanket.
🧵 1/ Despite PMC Wagner's reputation for heinous crimes and brutal tactics, certain aspects of their activities have received limited coverage. This thread illuminates the far-reaching influence of PMC Wagner and the significant security risks it poses to the global community
2/ The occupation of Soledar in the Donetsk region by the Wagner mercenaries provided the russian media with a significant success story, enabling them to shift the focus away from the army's major operational failures and loss of control over the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.
3/ As the reputational bubble of Wagner continued to inflate, and the "PMC" was granted exceptional rights to recruit criminals, its head, Prigozhin, accused Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov of "treason" due to the lack of support and ammunition.
PMC Thread🧵: 1/ In my recent thread, I discussed a new "PMC" and promised to provide more information when possible.
This group is known as the "Wolves" and it is involved in an assault, scouting, and sabotage missions. But their story is more complex than that:
2/ Rather than gaining notoriety for their effectiveness, the Wolves have become the center of a brewing scandal. Hundreds of soldiers mobilized by the Ministry of Defense last year, unexpectedly found themselves as members of the PMC, of which they had no prior knowledge.
3/ In a video published by the Telegram channel "Astra," dissatisfied soldiers from military bases 11048 and 61899 claim that they were misled into moving from the "Postoyalye Dvory" training ground in the Kursk region to the city of Rostov. Upon arrival, their IDs were taken.
1/ As the coup in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan continues to unfold, satellite imagery is providing new insights. Recent imagery shows that the number of damaged or destroyed airplanes at Khartoum International Airport is greater than previously reported.
2/ It's worth noting that the ongoing conflict in Sudan primarily involves General Hemette, head of the Rapid Support Forces, and General Al-Burhan, both of whom came to power as a result of a coup.
3/While Al-Burhan is generally perceived as being an official government, both individuals represent different factions of the same military junta.
Given the ongoing discussions regarding the Ukrainian counter-offensive, it's crucial to understand russia's echeloned defense system along the frontline, particularly in the south. These defense lines are composed of multiple obstacles that Ukrainian forces will face
2/ To help paint a clearer picture, we'll be using satellite imagery from Feb 2023 to analyze a section of the enemy's fortifications located south of Vasylivka, Zaporizhia oblast. Although some changes have occurred since then, the general idea of the defenses remains the same
3/ One key feature of russia's defense lines are famous dragon's teeth, pyramidal anti-tank obstacles that can effectively impede or slow down mechanized or motorized units during an attack. These obstacles can be particularly effective in combination with other defense measures