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Ian Ellis Profile picture
@ianellisjones
Apr 30, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Pacific Theatre Update 👀

Done:
🇨🇳 "Major military activity" & training
🇷🇺 Pacific Fleet "high alert" & drills
🇰🇷🇯🇵🇺🇸 Combined exercises
🇵🇭🇦🇺🇺🇸 Exercise Balikatan

Ongoing:
🇰🇵 Spy satellite launch
🇸🇬🇨🇳 Drills
🇻🇳🇨🇳 Paracel
🇵🇭🇨🇳 Spratly
🇨🇳 Response to 🇺🇸P-8 Poseidon🇹🇼 & Subs in 🇰🇷
Also watching movements of key naval assets:

🇨🇳 Shandong Carrier Strike Group

Transited Bashi Channel on 24-04 & likely headed for port after 3 weeks in the Philippine Sea

🇺🇸 Nimitz CSG

Departs Thailand 29-04

🇺🇸 Makin Island Amphibious Group

Last known location: Philippines
This year marks the 38th and largest-ever iteration of the prominent annual military exercise between the 🇵🇭 & 🇺🇸:
A reminder about my maps & analysis:
Latest: In a statement, the 🇺🇸 State Department criticized 🇨🇳 China's "harassment and intimidation" of 🇵🇭 Philippine vessels in the contested SCS waterway. It added any attack on Philippine armed forces would trigger a US response.

The US "stands with our Philippine allies in… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
North Korea update:

In Washington, 🇰🇷 President Yoon held a summit with 🇺🇸 President Biden and announced the adoption of the “Washington Declaration,” under which the US will share information on nuclear and strategic operations and planning and regularly deploy strategic assets… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The 🇫🇷 French Navy is also active in the region, operating with 🇰🇷🇯🇵🇺🇸
🇦🇺 Australia is also exercising in the region, participating in Exercise #Balikatan23 with 🇵🇭🇺🇸 and now drilling with 🇯🇵
Location of @USNavy ships released today by @NavalInstitute:

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More from @ianellisjones

Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 24
Notable developments in the Indo-Pacific last week:

- China conducted back-to-back joint combat patrols 24nm from Taiwan on the same day for the first time
- 59 PLA aircraft detected around Taiwan + 43 entered its ADIZ on Monday, largest single-day surge of 2025 + highest in 5 months
- Recent PLA military drills in the Taiwan Strait, Western Pacific, South China Sea, East China Sea, + Yellow/Bohai Sea
- New Shuiqiao landing barges carrying out docking trials with civil-military RO-RO ferries
- Elevated PLA drone activity, including WZ-10 + GJ-2

Taiwan recently wrapped up a week of “Rapid Response Exercises,” practicing tactical maneuvers, key asset protection, concealment, and cover operations to enhance readiness and response capabilities. MND said: “ROC Armed Forces closely monitor maritime and aerial activities, conducting joint operations to track and respond to PLA incursions.”

China’s foreign ministry stated: “China’s relevant military operation is necessary, lawful and legitimate in order to defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity. It’s a firm response to external forces who are hellbent on abetting and aiding ‘Taiwan independence,’ and a warning to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces’ unconscionable acts... Those who attempt to use Taiwan to contain China will get burned for playing with fire.”

More info and sources below:Image
Review of Chinese PLA military activity 2025 year-to-date:
On 17 March, Taiwan detected 59 PLA aircraft around the island, and 43 crossed into its Air Defense ID Zone (ADIZ) — the largest single-day surge of 2025 and highest in 5 months.
Read 7 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 21
“...this newest logistics capability is further evidence of the PLA’s efforts to meet Chairman Xi Jinping’s reported mandate to have military capabilities necessary to conduct a large-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2027.” @tshugart3 @ChinaMaritime Image
“The new Shuiqiao LPUs offer the PLA a critical capability and fulfill a long-sought requirement to reliably deliver a large volume of second echelon forces into amphibious landing areas. In the context of other developments that include improvements to amphibious base infrastructure, the increased use of a diverse array of civilian vessels to support amphibious operations, and other PLA capability developments, the Shuiqiao LPUs are another example of the PLA significantly increasing capabilities to conduct a large-scale cross-strait operation—if they are ordered to do so—in coming years.”
May already be testing the new landing barges with a “civilian” PLA-associated roll-on, roll-off (RO-RO) ferry:
Read 4 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 18
Many rumors circulating about U.S. aircraft carriers.

Here’s an update on all 11 🇺🇸

• 3x deployed: Truman in Red Sea, Vinson in WESTPAC, Washington forward in Japan
• 4x active/available: Ford completing COMPTUEX in the Atlantic, Lincoln & Roosevelt in San Diego, Nimitz in Bremerton
• 1x sea trials: Bush in the Atlantic
• 3x maintenance: Reagan in Puget Sound, Ike in Norfolk, Stennis in Newport News

American carriers frequently conduct routine operations off the coast of the U.S. - just because one leaves port does not mean it’s on deployment.

Ford is next up on the east coast but must first complete COMPTUEX training, & Nimitz has been conducting pre-deployment training off the west coast.

Senior U.S. officials @__CJohnston__ spoke with expect a deployment extension for Truman in CENTCOM. There is precedent to move a CSG from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, so Vinson could be sent in that direction if need be. In a surge scenario, Roosevelt & Lincoln are also available.

At this time, the U.S. Navy has not announced any new deployments. More info & sources below.Image
The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (HSTCSG) is in the Red Sea currently conducting its 3rd day of strike operations against the Iranian-backed Houthi in Yemen.
Truman’s deployment will likely be extended, @__CJohnston__ reported today.
Read 5 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 16
🚨 The U.S. launched large-scale precision strikes against the Houthi in Yemen yesterday: Map

The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, on station in the Red Sea, & USAF participated in the operation, which hit “dozens & dozens” of targets

~20% of the fleet in theater (thread) Image
Approximately 50% of the deployed U.S. Navy force is in the Indo-Pacific + Med/Middle East area of responsibility.
On Saturday, 15 March, U.S. Central Command executed a series of precision strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi targets across Yemen to “defend American interests, deter enemies, & restore freedom of navigation.”
Read 17 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 6
China has really ratcheted up the bellicose rhetoric recently with warnings, threats, and ultimatums:

• “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

• “We will come and get you [Taiwan], sooner or later... We make no promise to renounce the use of force.”

• “Rubio’s remarks are steeped in the Cold-War mentality and full of lies and false accusations. The Taiwan question is the most crucial, sensitive and explosive issue in the China-U.S. relations. If the U.S. does not hope to trigger confrontation, they must stop crossing or trampling on the red line.”

• “Anyone who dares to push for ‘Taiwan independence’ will certainly face swift and strong countermeasures from the PLA. And we warn some individuals of the U.S. side: playing sneaky tricks on Taiwan would only backfire.”

• “We warn the [Taiwan] DPP authorities that holding back the tide with a broom will only end up in self-destruction... In the face of the prevailing trend of China’s reunification, any petty tricks by the DPP authorities are futile. Being too cunning by half will end up costing its life. As the PLA has pointed out multiple times, seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ is a dead end. For those who are hopelessly stubborn, let them crash headlong into the harsh reality.”

• “We urge the U.S. to immediately correct its wrongdoings, abide by the one-China principle and three China-U.S. joint communiqués, handle the Taiwan question with extra prudence, stop using Taiwan to contain China, stop upgrading its substantive relations with Taiwan, stop helping Taiwan expand so-called ‘international space,’ stop emboldening and supporting ‘Taiwan independence,’ and avoid further severe damage to China-U.S. relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

More info, updates, and sources below.
Beijing’s response after the U.S. State Department removed the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” from its website:
In a press conference on 27 February, a spokesman for China’s defense ministry said:
Read 6 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 2
🚨 China intensified its military presence & activity near Taiwan in Feb, significantly outpacing previous years

- 362 PLA aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ (4x more than 2024 & 5th highest on record)
- 223 navy warships tracked (+42%)
- 5x joint combat readiness patrols

Thread: Image
The rapid pace of PLA military activity around Taiwan I covered in my January report continued through February, once again surpassing 2023 and 2024 levels.

Read the January review here, and see below for the February report.
The PLA has deployed in strength across the Indo-Pacific, with a task force currently circumnavigating Australia for the first time and two amphibious surface action groups operating in WESTPAC and the South China Sea.

During February, the PLA held live-fire/shooting exercises in the Western Pacific, South China Sea, Tasman Sea, Gulf of Tonkin/Beibu Gulf, Yellow Sea, and Bohai Sea.
Read 7 tweets

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