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Ian Ellis Profile picture
@ianellisjones
Apr 30, 2023 β€’ 9 tweets β€’ 4 min read β€’ Read on X
Pacific Theatre Update πŸ‘€

Done:
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ "Major military activity" & training
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί Pacific Fleet "high alert" & drills
πŸ‡°πŸ‡·πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Combined exercises
πŸ‡΅πŸ‡­πŸ‡¦πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Exercise Balikatan

Ongoing:
πŸ‡°πŸ‡΅ Spy satellite launch
πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¬πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Drills
πŸ‡»πŸ‡³πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Paracel
πŸ‡΅πŸ‡­πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Spratly
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Response to πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈP-8 PoseidonπŸ‡ΉπŸ‡Ό & Subs in πŸ‡°πŸ‡·
Also watching movements of key naval assets:

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Shandong Carrier Strike Group

Transited Bashi Channel on 24-04 & likely headed for port after 3 weeks in the Philippine Sea

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Nimitz CSG

Departs Thailand 29-04

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Makin Island Amphibious Group

Last known location: Philippines
This year marks the 38th and largest-ever iteration of the prominent annual military exercise between the πŸ‡΅πŸ‡­ & πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ:
A reminder about my maps & analysis:
Latest: In a statement, the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ State Department criticized πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³Β China's "harassment and intimidation" of πŸ‡΅πŸ‡­ Philippine vessels in the contested SCS waterway. It added any attack on Philippine armed forces would trigger a US response.

The US "stands with our Philippine allies in… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
North Korea update:

In Washington, πŸ‡°πŸ‡· President Yoon held a summit with πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ President Biden and announced the adoption of the β€œWashington Declaration,” under which the US will share information on nuclear and strategic operations and planning and regularly deploy strategic assets… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The πŸ‡«πŸ‡· French Navy is also active in the region, operating with πŸ‡°πŸ‡·πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί Australia is also exercising in the region, participating in Exercise #Balikatan23 with πŸ‡΅πŸ‡­πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ and now drilling with πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅
Location of @USNavy ships released today by @NavalInstitute:

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More from @ianellisjones

Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jun 8
PLA Navy in 2025: More warships, farther than ever before

β€’ 1,350+ Chinese vessels near Taiwan (+26%)
β€’ Liaoning’s longest deployment ever, deep into WESTPAC
β€’ First circumnavigation of Australia
β€’ 20+ joint combat readiness patrols

These deployments demonstrate Beijing's blue water ambitions and the capability to project power outside the first and second island chains, sending a clear message to not only the U.S. and Taiwan but also Australia, Japan, and the Philippines.Image
The Chinese PLA has deployed four big deck warships - two aircraft carriers and two amphibious assault ships - over the last month.

The U.S. Navy is also active in the region:
The Liaoning carrier task group is operating deep in the Western Pacific, more than 2,000 miles (3,200km) from its homeport at Yuchi Naval Base. This represents the PLA's longest carrier deployment on record and the first time deploying beyond the second island chain.
Read 5 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
May 2
🚨 China dispatched 546* PLA aircraft around Taiwan in April, the highest monthly total of 2025 & most since August

Nearly 1,800 PLA aircraft have been detected operating nearby year-to-date (+48% yoy), with 1,200+ crossing into Taiwan's ADIZ (+184%)

New heatmap with @OSINTNW: Image
Year-to-date, PLA incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in 2025 continue to run significantly higher than 2023 and 2024. Image
China wasn't fooling around on 1 April when they announced exercise Strait Thunder 2025A, taking advantage of favorable weather conditions to "close in on Taiwan from multiple directions" and execute one of the PLA's largest blockade drills to date. 135 PLA planes were detected over 2 days.
Read 6 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 18
American strategic bomber fleet out in full force πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ

β€’ 4x USAF B-1B Lancer bombers deployed to Japan in support of first Bomber Task Force mission, marking a historic visit

β€’ 6x B-2 Spirit stealth bombers forward deployed to Diego Garcia continue strike ops against the Houthi Image
More info on the B-2 bomber deployment:
A Bomber Task Force (BTF) deployment of USAF B-1B Lancer aircraft, Airmen and support equipment from the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, arrived at Misawa Air Base, Japan, on 15 April. (PACAF) Image
Read 5 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 12
New @jointstaffpa map shows the flight paths of Chinese (red) + Russian (yellow) military aircraft operating near Japan, Taiwan, + South Korea in the past year.

Japan scrambled 704 times in response, with two-thirds (464) due to Chinese aircraft. 3x as many PLA drones detected. Image
704 scrambles in FY2024 (1 April to 31 March) is a modest 5% (+35) increase over the prior period. Image
More detail on location and type of aircraft: Image
Read 4 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 3
During exercise Strait Thunder-2025A, the Chinese PLA released several maps and visuals of Taiwan, some marked with target icons and depicting key locations burning and under attack.

Quick compilation (and more info below):
Here’s everything that happened (as it was happening):
Day 1 snapshot:
Read 4 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 1
BREAKING: China launches joint military exercises around Taiwan, practicing a β€œblockade on key areas”

On 1 April, PLA Eastern Theater Command deployed Army, Navy, Air Force, & Rocket Forces to β€œclose in on Taiwan from multiple directions.”

- Sea-air combat readiness patrols
- Joint seizure of comprehensive superiority
- Assault on maritime & ground targets
- Blockade on key areas & sea areas

β€œIt is a stern warning & forceful deterrence against β€˜Taiwan Independence’ separatist forces.”

The PLA released a theme poster called β€œClosing In: Sinister Moves of Taiwan Separatists Courting Disaster Upon Themselves.”
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command began conducting joint military exercises around Taiwan on Tuesday, 1 April 2025, according to an announcement by Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for the theater command. Image
Image
Image
Why is China doing this now and what are these exercises designed to do? @WarintheFuture explains:
Read 13 tweets

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