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Ian Ellis Profile picture
@ianellisjones
Apr 30, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Pacific Theatre Update 👀

Done:
🇨🇳 "Major military activity" & training
🇷🇺 Pacific Fleet "high alert" & drills
🇰🇷🇯🇵🇺🇸 Combined exercises
🇵🇭🇦🇺🇺🇸 Exercise Balikatan

Ongoing:
🇰🇵 Spy satellite launch
🇸🇬🇨🇳 Drills
🇻🇳🇨🇳 Paracel
🇵🇭🇨🇳 Spratly
🇨🇳 Response to 🇺🇸P-8 Poseidon🇹🇼 & Subs in 🇰🇷
Also watching movements of key naval assets:

🇨🇳 Shandong Carrier Strike Group

Transited Bashi Channel on 24-04 & likely headed for port after 3 weeks in the Philippine Sea

🇺🇸 Nimitz CSG

Departs Thailand 29-04

🇺🇸 Makin Island Amphibious Group

Last known location: Philippines
This year marks the 38th and largest-ever iteration of the prominent annual military exercise between the 🇵🇭 & 🇺🇸:
A reminder about my maps & analysis:
Latest: In a statement, the 🇺🇸 State Department criticized 🇨🇳 China's "harassment and intimidation" of 🇵🇭 Philippine vessels in the contested SCS waterway. It added any attack on Philippine armed forces would trigger a US response.

The US "stands with our Philippine allies in… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
North Korea update:

In Washington, 🇰🇷 President Yoon held a summit with 🇺🇸 President Biden and announced the adoption of the “Washington Declaration,” under which the US will share information on nuclear and strategic operations and planning and regularly deploy strategic assets… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The 🇫🇷 French Navy is also active in the region, operating with 🇰🇷🇯🇵🇺🇸
🇦🇺 Australia is also exercising in the region, participating in Exercise #Balikatan23 with 🇵🇭🇺🇸 and now drilling with 🇯🇵
Location of @USNavy ships released today by @NavalInstitute:

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More from @ianellisjones

Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 6
China has really ratcheted up the bellicose rhetoric recently with warnings, threats, and ultimatums:

• “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

• “We will come and get you [Taiwan], sooner or later... We make no promise to renounce the use of force.”

• “Rubio’s remarks are steeped in the Cold-War mentality and full of lies and false accusations. The Taiwan question is the most crucial, sensitive and explosive issue in the China-U.S. relations. If the U.S. does not hope to trigger confrontation, they must stop crossing or trampling on the red line.”

• “Anyone who dares to push for ‘Taiwan independence’ will certainly face swift and strong countermeasures from the PLA. And we warn some individuals of the U.S. side: playing sneaky tricks on Taiwan would only backfire.”

• “We warn the [Taiwan] DPP authorities that holding back the tide with a broom will only end up in self-destruction... In the face of the prevailing trend of China’s reunification, any petty tricks by the DPP authorities are futile. Being too cunning by half will end up costing its life. As the PLA has pointed out multiple times, seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ is a dead end. For those who are hopelessly stubborn, let them crash headlong into the harsh reality.”

• “We urge the U.S. to immediately correct its wrongdoings, abide by the one-China principle and three China-U.S. joint communiqués, handle the Taiwan question with extra prudence, stop using Taiwan to contain China, stop upgrading its substantive relations with Taiwan, stop helping Taiwan expand so-called ‘international space,’ stop emboldening and supporting ‘Taiwan independence,’ and avoid further severe damage to China-U.S. relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

More info, updates, and sources below.
Beijing’s response after the U.S. State Department removed the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” from its website:
In a press conference on 27 February, a spokesman for China’s defense ministry said:
Read 6 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 2
🚨 China intensified its military presence & activity near Taiwan in Feb, significantly outpacing previous years

- 362 PLA aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ (4x more than 2024 & 5th highest on record)
- 223 navy warships tracked (+42%)
- 5x joint combat readiness patrols

Thread: Image
The rapid pace of PLA military activity around Taiwan I covered in my January report continued through February, once again surpassing 2023 and 2024 levels.

Read the January review here, and see below for the February report.
The PLA has deployed in strength across the Indo-Pacific, with a task force currently circumnavigating Australia for the first time and two amphibious surface action groups operating in WESTPAC and the South China Sea.

During February, the PLA held live-fire/shooting exercises in the Western Pacific, South China Sea, Tasman Sea, Gulf of Tonkin/Beibu Gulf, Yellow Sea, and Bohai Sea.
Read 7 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Feb 27
🚨 Major Chinese military activity in the Indo-Pacific

- Launched snap live-fire drills 40 nautical miles from Taiwan
- Conducted unannounced live-fire drills between Australia & New Zealand
- Deployed 2x surface action groups led by Type 075 big deck amphibious assault ships 🧵 Image
“The PLA has blatantly violated international norms by unilaterally designating a drill zone 40 NM off the coast of Kaohsiung and Pingtung, claiming to conduct live-fire exercises without prior warning.”
The 3-ship PLA Navy Task Force 107 recently conducted two days of live-fire drills in between Australia and New Zealand. This is the furthest south a PLAN group has ever operated.
Read 9 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Feb 25
China is “on a war footing” & the PLA “pretends every day is the Super Bowl,” preparing for Taiwan contingencies

Masterclass from @MikeStudeman, former Commander of Naval Intelligence, on Bouma Report

- 2025 military outlook
- Invasion vs blockade
- Xi's gamble to surpass Mao🧵
Heavy stuff at high speed—
Here’s the full 100 min recording that begins around 18:00. A few more clips and quotes below.
Read 8 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 27
A lot of U.S. military activity in the Indo-Pacific:

- 200 National Guard Airmen + F-35A fighters deployed to Kadena
- Elevated recon sorties; additional ISR assets moved into theater
- First exercise with the Philippines involving a U.S. carrier
- USAF B-1B Lancer bombers deployed to Guam
- USS America + USS Blue Ridge operating in WESTPAC
- Multiple exercises at Kadena, Yokota, & Misawa Air Bases
- Fast attack-sub USS Columbia (SSN 771) pulled into Guam
- Conducted 4-day combined aerial exercise with South Korea

More info + sources below.Image
Snapshot: 2025 U.S. Navy footprint

8 of America’s 11 aircraft carriers are active or working up, and 3 are currently deployed: Truman in the Middle East (5th Fleet), Vinson + Washington in the Indo-Pacific (7th Fleet)
More than 200 Vermont Air National Guard Airmen, equipment and F-35A Lighting II aircraft recently deployed to Kadena Air Base, Japan, as part of a planned rotation to enhance regional security and strengthen interoperability with joint and allied forces.

“We are there to support operations and train in the Indo-Pacific region,” said U.S. Air Force Col. Michael Blair, 158th Operations Group commander. “Operating out of Kadena provides our Airmen the opportunity to execute missions in a sustained deployed environment, sharpening their skills and bolstering readiness.”

This deployment, part of scheduled ongoing rotations of aircraft and Airmen to that region, will span several months and include exercises in Japan and other regional islands. Among the key activities is Cope North, a premier multilateral joint exercise and the largest of its kind in the region.

“Exercise Cope North is a unique opportunity to work closely with our allied partners,” Blair said. “The level of interoperability required during this exercise demonstrates our collective ability to respond to emerging threats and ensure regional stability.”

The deployment to Japan complements the Vermont Air National Guard’s ongoing global commitments, including the more than 50 Airmen deployed last fall to support missions in U.S. Central Command and U.S. Africa Command theaters.

“With this latest deployment, more than a third of our Airmen are actively contributing to critical missions worldwide,” said U.S. Air Force Col. Daniel Finnegan, 158th Fighter Wing commander. “Their efforts underscore our unwavering dedication to peace, security and the fulfillment of our nation’s commitments abroad.”

Source: VT Air National Guard
Read 11 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 20
“The pace of modernization that the PLA is going through is unprecedented. It’s far outpacing what we are doing...

We are the smallest and oldest that we’ve ever been. The Chinese, the PLA, is the largest and most modern that it has ever been.”

—USAF Brig. Gen. Douglas Wickert
“That is risk. That is uncertainty. And that’s why what we are doing here at Edwards Air Force Base is extremely important.”

Fascinating perspective on China from the Commander of the 412th Test Wing, which plans and conducts all flight and ground testing of next-gen aircraft.
This is the first time I’ve seen a senior U.S. military official publicly address the two new advanced airframes that China recently leaked online (what some are calling the J-36 & J-50).
Read 6 tweets

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