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Ian Ellis Profile picture
@ianellisjones
Apr 30, 2023 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 4 min read โ€ข Read on X
Pacific Theatre Update ๐Ÿ‘€

Done:
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ "Major military activity" & training
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Pacific Fleet "high alert" & drills
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Combined exercises
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Exercise Balikatan

Ongoing:
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ต Spy satellite launch
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Drills
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Paracel
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Spratly
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Response to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธP-8 Poseidon๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ & Subs in ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท
Also watching movements of key naval assets:

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Shandong Carrier Strike Group

Transited Bashi Channel on 24-04 & likely headed for port after 3 weeks in the Philippine Sea

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Nimitz CSG

Departs Thailand 29-04

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Makin Island Amphibious Group

Last known location: Philippines
This year marks the 38th and largest-ever iteration of the prominent annual military exercise between the ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ & ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ:
A reminder about my maps & analysis:
Latest: In a statement, the ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ State Department criticized ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณย China's "harassment and intimidation" of ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippine vessels in the contested SCS waterway. It added any attack on Philippine armed forces would trigger a US response.

The US "stands with our Philippine allies inโ€ฆ twitter.com/i/web/status/1โ€ฆ
North Korea update:

In Washington, ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท President Yoon held a summit with ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ President Biden and announced the adoption of the โ€œWashington Declaration,โ€ under which the US will share information on nuclear and strategic operations and planning and regularly deploy strategic assetsโ€ฆ twitter.com/i/web/status/1โ€ฆ
The ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท French Navy is also active in the region, operating with ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia is also exercising in the region, participating in Exercise #Balikatan23 with ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ and now drilling with ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
Location of @USNavy ships released today by @NavalInstitute:

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @ianellisjones

Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 4
During the darkest hours of 2 and 3 January, the U.S. conducted operation โ€œAbsolute Resolve,โ€ a discreet, precise mission to apprehend Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.

The special operations extraction force, escorted by a U.S. Navy, Marine, and Air Force protection package, arrived in downtown Caracas while maintaining the element of tactical surprise, successfully took Maduro into custody, and exfiltrated safely.

A comprehensive review of everything we know to date:
w/ @SA_Defensa, @LatAmMilMVMTs, @__CJohnston__Image
At 22:46 EST on 2 January 2026, โ€Šafter โ€Š"patiently waiting for the right triggers to be met... the weather broke just enough" and POTUS ordered the U.S. military to move forward with operation โ€œAbsolute Resolve.โ€
โ€œOver the course of the night, aircraft began launching from 20 different bases, on land and sea, across the Western Hemisphere. In total, more than 150 aircraft, bombers, fighters, intel, recon, and rotary wing aircraft were in the air.โ€

The 150+ aircraft worked in โ€œclose coordination, all coming together... to layer effects for a single purpose: to get an interdiction force into downtown Caracas while maintaining the element of tactical surprise.โ€

As the operation began, the helicopters with the extraction force, which included law enforcement officers, took off and began their flight into Venezuela at 100 feet above the water. โ€œAs they approached Venezuelan shores, the U.S. began layering different effects provided by SPACECOM, CYBERCOM, and other members of the interagency to create a pathway.โ€

Overhead, the extraction forces were protected by aircraft from the U.S. Marines, U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, and the Air National Guard. The protection package included F-22s, F-35As, F-35Bs, F/A-18E/Fs, EA-18Gs, E-2Ds, B-1B bombers, and other support aircraft, as well as numerous remotely piloted drones.

As the package approached Caracas, the joint air component โ€œbegan dismantling and disabling the air defense systems, employing weapons to ensure the safe passage of the helicopters into the target area.โ€

Delta Force arrived at Maduroโ€™s compound at 01:01 AM EST (02:01 AM local time) on 3 January and descended into the compound. โ€œWhile apprehending the indicted persons on arrival into the target area, the helicopters came under fire and they replied with overwhelming force in self-defense.โ€

Maduro and his wife surrendered and were taken into custody by the Department of Justice, assisted by the U.S. military, with no loss of U.S. life. After securing Maduro, the force began to prepare for departure โ€œHelicopters were called in to exfiltrate the extraction force while fighter aircraft and remotely piloted aircraft provided overhead coverage and suppressive fire. There were multiple self-defense engagements. As the force began to withdraw out of Venezuela, the force successfully exfiltrated and returned to their afloat launch bases, and the force was over the water.โ€

By 03:29 AM EST, the 160 SOAR MH-47G Chinook transporting the VIP touched down on amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) in the Caribbean Sea. LHD 7, with its air combat element (ACE) practicing agile combat employment (ACE) in Puerto Rico, has served as a mobile hub for special operations forces in USSOUTHCOM.

One helo was hit during the engagement, but remained operational, and all aircraft made it home safely. Source: Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Read 5 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Dec 30, 2025
Over the past 48 hours, China surrounded Taiwan and executed large-scale live-fire military exercises featuring simulated decapitation strikes and the seizure of key ports.

โ€œIt is a noose-style blockade. The operational scope is no longer limited to symbolic, isolated shows of force, but has evolved into a coordinated and interconnected blockade network, practicing the tactics to choke off the islandโ€™s vital supply lines,โ€ the official PLA press account stated bluntly.

With a potential Day 3 on the horizon, hereโ€™s everything you might have missed:Image
For easier viewing, press and hold to load in 4K. Special thanks to @SinoTalk and @songs349.

>>On the morning of 29 December, PLA Eastern Theater Command launched joint military exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait, dubbed โ€œJustice Mission 2025,โ€ and deployed air and naval forces โ€œto approach Taiwan Island in close proximity from different directionsโ€

The PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force participated. The stated objectives at the outset included:

- Blockade on key ports and areas
- Seizure of comprehensive superiority
- Joint sea-air combat readiness patrols
- All-dimensional deterrence outside the first island chain (new language)
The PRC designated seven exercise zones in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, southwest, southeast, and east of Taiwan. From 09:00 to 11:00, the PLA established an 8th training area to the east of Taiwan (per @MoNDefense).
Read 9 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Dec 8, 2025
Confirmed today: The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, currently sailing west in the Pacific on a surge deployment, chopped into U.S. 7th Fleet.

Amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7) entered the South China Sea and recently stopped in Da Nang.

New INDOPACOM snapshot: Image
ABECSG arrives in the region amid heavy Chinese PLA Navy activity:
Lincoln + Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 21 moved from 3rd to 7th Fleet sometime between 4 and 8 December, per DVIDS. Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Dec 6, 2025
As of yesterday, Reuters reports that 90+ Chinese ships are operating in the region - down from 100+ earlier this week - surpassing China'sย "mass naval deploymentย in December last year" in the "largest maritime show of force to date."

A high-level visual (notes + sources below): Image
โ€œThe Chinese ships have massed in waters stretching from the southern part of the Yellow Sea through the East China Sea and down into the contested South China Sea, as well as into the Pacific, according to four security officials in the region.

Their accounts were corroborated by intelligence reports from a country in the region, which detailed the deployment. Reuters reviewed the reports on condition it did not name the country.

As of Thursday morning, there are more than 90 Chinese ships operating in the region, coming down from more than 100 at one point earlier this week, the documents showed.

The operations exceed China's mass naval deployment in December last year that prompted Taiwan to raise its alert level, the sources said.โ€
The Hainan amphibious task group was last spotted ~500nm north of Palau. Australia is closely tracking the ATG but itโ€™s unclear how far south the group will transit. @SinoTalk unpacks why the PLA might conduct a second circumnavigation op and what it would look like:
Read 7 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Nov 15, 2025
Mapping potential military targets in Venezuela

Yesterday, the U.S. announced Operation Southern Spear to "remove narco-terrorists from our hemisphere." With the Ford carrier strike group now on station in SOUTHCOM, the U.S. could launch land strikes at any time.

w/ @SA_Defensa Image
"Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine returned to the White House on Friday for a second consecutive day of deliberations centered on potential military action in Venezuela, as U.S. forces in the region prepared for possible attack orders.

It remains unclear if President Donald Trump has decided to pursue such an escalation, though high-level discussions over whether to strike Venezuela โ€” and how โ€” have been underway for days...

An administration official said 'a host of options' have been presented to the president." (WaPo)
Special thanks to @SA_Defensa, heโ€™s one of the best in the business.
Read 7 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Nov 10, 2025
Many moving pieces in SOUTHCOM as the Ford Carrier Strike Group steams toward the Caribbean & POTUS considers striking land targets in Venezuela.

Visualizing U.S. force posture, w/ illustrative Tomahawk Land Attack Missile & Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile strike packages: Image
On 24 October, the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (GRFCSG) and embarked carrier air wing were directed to the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility. Open source flight tracking data indicates its journey across the Atlantic is likely underway. @MT_Anderson
@MT_Anderson MV Ocean Trader is back in the southern Caribbean. For specific ship locations scroll @MT_Andersonโ€™s timeline
Read 5 tweets

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