Thread by @axanner

Let's examine India's attempts at military expansion in the Indian Ocean region, focusing on their relationships with the Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles, and why calls for #IndiaOut is justified. 1/23

Following President Yameen Abdul Gayyoom’s electoral defeat, the MDP administration declared an “India First” policy, signaling India's interests would take precedence over other nations' interests. #Maldives 2/23

India has been concerned about China's growing influence in the Indian Ocean, with the Belt and Road initiative, its military base in Djibouti, and its port in Gwadar. 3/23

India's fears have led to speculation about Chinese military bases in countries like Myanmar and Laamu Atoll in the Maldives, though there's no concrete evidence. 4/23

India has been seeking dominance in the Indian Ocean, as shown by statements from former PM Manmohan Singh and the Indian Maritime Doctrine, which depict India's navy as a powerful blue-water fleet. 5/23

India's defense budget allocation for the navy has increased from 14.5% in 1999-2000 to 19% a decade later. This demonstrates India's commitment to securing its interests in the region. 6/23

The MDP administration in the Maldives is comfortable with Indian military presence, often praising India's actions in their country as neighborly benevolence. 7/23

In 2015, India and Mauritius signed a memorandum of understanding to improve sea and air transport facilities in the Mauritian archipelago of Agaléga, including state-of-the-art telecommunications equipment. 8/23

Indian company Afcons won the $87 million USD project to develop facilities in Agaléga, which would grant New Delhi "greater maritime awareness" in the south-west Indian Ocean. 9/23

The governments of both India and Mauritius have kept the details of the facilities being developed on Agaléga a secret, raising concerns among the inhabitants. 10/23

Satellite imagery from December 2020 reveals the extent of the Agalégan base development, including a 3,000-meter runway, barracks, and fields. 11/23

Analysts suggest that the facilities in Agaléga will serve as a staging point for India's P-8I maritime patrol aircraft and enable the Indian Navy to observe shipping routes around southern Africa. 12/23

In 2015, India approached Seychelles with a deal similar to that of Mauritius, aiming to jointly develop facilities on Assumption Island. The development would help patrol Seychelles' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). 13/23

However, the Seychellois opposition refused to ratify the agreement, citing concerns about national sovereignty. The agreement was eventually struck down. 14/23

In 2018, after the deal fell through, Seychellois President Danny Faure visited India and was offered a $100 million USD line-of-credit by PM Modi. 15/23

Its speculated that the new President Wavel Ramkalawan may be asked by India to reconsider parts of the Assumption Island plans. India's appointment of a former Army Chief as the Indian High Commissioner in Seychelles reinforces this belief. 16/23

The rivalry between India and China has placed pressure on small island nations like the Maldives, which must navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape. 17/23

The current "India-First" foreign policy approach in the Maldives raises questions about potential consequences for the nation's sovereignty. 18/23

Maldivians have expressed their anger on social media, using the hashtag #IndiaOut, in response to the lack of transparency surrounding military agreements between the Maldives and India. 19/23

The Maldivian Ministry of Defence has not disclosed the number of Indian military personnel present in the Maldives or details of any military agreements between the two countries. 20/23

Neither the Parliament nor the public have been given access to details of military agreements between the Maldives and India, citing various concerns. 21/23

For all these reasons, there is a growing fear that India may have more sinister plans in store, such as converting small island nations in the Indian Ocean into vassal states, undermining their sovereignty and autonomy. 22/23

It is crucial for small island nations to remain vigilant and carefully navigate their relationships with India, ensuring that their sovereignty and autonomy are not compromised. 23/23