Thread by @MarkHertling

I believe Ukraines’ upcoming offensive operation will achieve huge tactical and perhaps large operational success.

But for those who believe it will be represented by large arrows on maps, that will not be indicative of this phase. 1/

This will be a tough fight, with newly-formed Ukrainian units conducting (for the first time) large-scale combined arms breeches against prepared Russian defensive positions.

This will be a new phase of the campaign that will be very different. 2/

My belief is that Ukraines’ forces will perform well (even better than before) & the Russian force will continue to perform poorly (though not as bad as they have in the past).

That is partly due to switching roles (attacking vs defending, and time spent by each preparing). 3/

Both sides are now probing each other.

Russia in the air (to determine Ukraine troop location & air defense positioning), Ukraine is starting to conduct Recon in Force (RIF) after months of intelligence prep of the battlefield & waiting for better weather. 4/

Be wary of those who are looking for big moves & huge or fast gains.

That could happen in some areas, but pushing logistics to support the Ukraine offensive will be the big test for each side.

This is where I believe Ukraine will out perform Russia, due to meticulous prep. 5/

Make no mistake, the next phase will likely be the toughest for both sides…and friction, fog & chance - as well as the commanders will & coup d’oeil (as described by Clausewitz) will play a part.

The prepared side will carry the day. 6/6