I believe Ukraines’ upcoming offensive operation will achieve huge tactical and perhaps large operational success.
But for those who believe it will be represented by large arrows on maps, that will not be indicative of this phase. 1/
This will be a tough fight, with newly-formed Ukrainian units conducting (for the first time) large-scale combined arms breeches against prepared Russian defensive positions.
This will be a new phase of the campaign that will be very different. 2/
My belief is that Ukraines’ forces will perform well (even better than before) & the Russian force will continue to perform poorly (though not as bad as they have in the past).
That is partly due to switching roles (attacking vs defending, and time spent by each preparing). 3/
Both sides are now probing each other.
Russia in the air (to determine Ukraine troop location & air defense positioning), Ukraine is starting to conduct Recon in Force (RIF) after months of intelligence prep of the battlefield & waiting for better weather. 4/
Be wary of those who are looking for big moves & huge or fast gains.
That could happen in some areas, but pushing logistics to support the Ukraine offensive will be the big test for each side.
This is where I believe Ukraine will out perform Russia, due to meticulous prep. 5/
Make no mistake, the next phase will likely be the toughest for both sides…and friction, fog & chance - as well as the commanders will & coup d’oeil (as described by Clausewitz) will play a part.
The prepared side will carry the day. 6/6
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Last night, I tweeted that I had been assessing & considering the challenges Ukraine's Army (UA) Commanders were facing in preparing for the “spring offensives.
I said I'd share some thoughts on what I would be thinking if I were among them.
This is that 🧵 1/
First, there were people who thanked me for this, but There were dozens who said "don't give secrets to the Russians!"
Trust me, this 🧵: 1. Will not help RU 2. May help civilians better understand & manage expectation 3. Is based on what most militaries already know. 2/
Oh...one guy responded "do it, but don't make it too long."
To that guy I would say "this is it...deal with the length and try to stay focused!" 3/
Woke up early to Putin's "State of the Russian Federation" remarks. It's mostly being reported due to his comments about him deciding to end the New Start Treaty agreements.
While that was significant, there was MUCH more. 1/
Putin "vowed" to "systemically" continue the offensive in Ukraine.
As I said in this @washingtonpost piece published yesterday, Putin's military has failed, in all 5 phases of this war, in achieving his strategic objectives. 2/ wapo.st/3YRnCcs.
Putin was bold enough to say:
"Ukraine is not just a neighboring country. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture & spiritual space. These are our comrades, those dearest to us."
There are various estimates of how many "soldiers" (& criminals) RU has mobilized & sent to the front. I'd guess it's equal to or slightly greater than the initial invasion force (190K).
But as I've said many times, these are untrained forces. 3/
The @GOP is debating on condemning @potus actions on the China Balloon at the SOTU. If they do condemn, after the gang of eight and then other members it will only show how unserious they are about national security.
As I said on Friday, as a former Cavalryman I learned that unless there is an immediate threat, a smart person spends time observing, reporting, and analyzing.
While the immediate reaction may be "shoot it down," experts may provide a more prudent approach.
That happened. 2/
We'll learn @NORADCommand tracked across the Bering Sea, Aleutians, Alaska & then Canada.
Based on experience, there was constant tracking, as has been reported, and immediate risk mitigation (jamming, spoofing, following).
2. It's isn't "learning the tank" I'm concerned about:
--can they quickly learn the capability of the Abrams (& Leopard II) the way it is designed to operate. That's training w/ other tanks, infantry, scouts, drones,artillery, engineers, intel...all more than crew training. 2/
--when the tank - or small critical parts in the tank - break (which they do), & when those small & large replacement parts need replacing, & when it requires daily/weekly/monthly echelon maintenance, will Ukraine have also trained those who do these things. 3/