Thread by @deepakj_tweet

Say Goodbye to #Spam calls & SMS. This TRAI initiative might KILL Truecaller alongside spammers👇

TRAI has yesterday announced that the telecom operators including Jio, Airtel would need to use AI filters from 1st May to block spam messages and calls.

ALL BUSINESSES ARE SUBJECT TO THE REGULATORY RISK AND THIS ANNOUNCEMENT IS GOING TO IMPACT A LOT OF BUSINESSES.

#Truecaller

#Truecaller - The app has built its business strategy on spam tagging and it is one of the 4-5 apps on every Indian phone. In fact, we might uninstall all other apps but not Truecaller.

Now, it might see big EXODUS of users in case the AI filters work as expected.

With telecom operators having all the voice data - they can very easily tag the spam calls and the numbers would get blocked within 5-10 calls once the machine learning systems kick in.

Lets see How Truecaller reinvents itself in its biggest market.

NOW COMING TO THE SPAMMERS

#Spammers - The spammers were already reeling under the pressure from Truecaller. How would they evade the AI filters?

In any case, I have always wondered the Unit Economics of these spammers. Lets do some back of the envelope calculations

#SpamUnitEconomics

@10-15 calls an hour - The agent makes ~2000 calls a month and the cost would be Rs. 25K a month (Salary and supporting infra)

Now, spammers use a few leverage areas

- High margin industries: You would receive calls for loans, real estate, cars, credit cards etc. All of these are high ticket size and high margin plays. Every conversion would easily lead to Rs. 5000+ payout

- List of In market users: Spammers do not call randomly. They procure lists of consumers who are very likely to convert. You are running a home loan and would get loan transfer calls. You are using one credit card and would get another card offer. You get the Drift - Right?

- Optimised and well rehearsed sales pitches: Spammers also know the user week points - they use GREED of the user to sell them the product. Example: We are giving loan at 1% lesser than your current running loan.

Out of 2000 calls - even if 1% users convert (VERY CONSERVATIVE GUESS). The company would make 5000X20 = Rs. 1,00,000 of Revenue on a cost of Rs. 25000.

This is 75% EBIDTA business.

Now, this is under pressure so these guys would definitely be willing to spend a good portion of this EBIDTA for saving their business.

BUT WHO WOULD COME UP WITH THE SOLUTION?

India is a country of Entrepreneurs and I am sure some smart Kid in a Tier 2/3 town might be building a solution to keep spammers in the business. He might have already built it and might be looking for reaching his potential clients (Spammers).

WHAT DO YOU THINK?