1/ A Tail hunter is concerned with only one form of trend. The trend with directional extension.
There are many forms of trend hidden in this series such as random trend components, trends within mean reverting cycles and a primary trend of directional extension.
2/ Unlike many other forms of momentum seeker, to capture these directional trends, we need loose pants to allow for the many other forms of trend that interfere with the trend we are seeking.....the Outlier.
3/ So our models are very simple...but that is just the way we like it. No profit targets like our other momentum brethren seeking different trends, just a simple stop and trailing stop giving freedom for movement along the course of this directional series.
4/ We give maximum degrees of freedom for the class of trend we hunt. They certainly aren't beautiful trends, They are ugly ducklings in our world of trend, and that is why they are so hard to hunt for those seeking certainty.
5/ This is not a game for prophecy as our class of trend defy predictive logic. We must abandon our desire to pre-empt these ugly ducklings and learn to love our systems, as they are the method we use to capture the fruits from these wicked market anomalies.
6/ But with our diversified systematic process we hunt these anomalies everywhere and everywhence as despite our inability to predict them in advance, we know they are a universal characteristic found in every liquid market.
@rjparkerjr09 1/ Here is an example to explain how most processes in the real world (including trading) are non-ergodic in nature. What this means is that the time average differs from the ensemble average. Still confused?
I will try to break it down here,
@rjparkerjr09 2/ Let's assume we have a trading strategy which has a win rate of 50% and an average win of $50 and an average loss of -$40.
According to our expectancy equation we generate a positive expectancy of (0.5 x $50)- (0.5 x $40) = $5 per trade.
All good. Now let's compound
@rjparkerjr09 Lets start with $100,000 and apply this to our process.
We apply a 50% win rate and if we win, then we gain 50% of our prior equity, and if we lose, we lose 40% of our prior equity.
We are making it extreme here but the win% and R:R appear to be the same....or are they?
1/ It is tempting to conclude that with maximal diversification, a trading process will emulate the price properties of the market (or an index), but while this is pertinent to a 'Buy and Hold' process, it is not pertinent to a Tail Hunter.
2/ A Tail Hunter uses a process of 'exclusion' to only participate in material price moves and avoids trading when price is displaying 'non-trending behaviour'.
3/ This process of exclusion means that under maximal diversification, the outcomes of the process means that the trade distribution approaches the 'tail properties' of a markets return distribution and not the properties of the 'entire distribution' of a markets returns.
What does a Classic Trend Follower mean when they refer to ‘warehousing risk’?
1/ There is a general market principle when it comes to risk. “Risk can never be removed, but it can be transferred”.
2/ In fact, portfolio managers are experts in ‘risk transference’ as we know that a portfolio can hold onto far more risk than what a single return stream can stomach.
3/ A portfolio applies principles of risk offset using return stream correlation to reduce overall portfolio risk. It is not that the risk of any individual return stream has altered but rather the overall risk of the portfolio has been reduced through correlation dependency.
1/ When we discuss ‘overfitting and underfitting’ with trading models there is not a ‘one size fits all answer’.
The riddle relates to what is referred to as 'Regime Dependent' Vs 'Regime Independent' models.
2/ A Classic TF model responds to exotic Outliers (anomalies) in the market data as opposed to the edge residing in a repeating condition of a historical data series.
We apply a regime independent model, focussed towards market transitions between stable regimes.
3/ A convergent practitioner on the other hand seeks to hone their edge by exploiting the specific 'predictable' behaviour associated with a particular regime.