Thread by @DrRadchenko

Here's an interesting development. China (but also Armenia, Kazakhstan, and many others) vote "yes" to a UN General Assembly resolution (A77/L65) that terms Russian actions against Georgia and Ukraine as "aggression". Let's take a closer look at what this could possibly mean.

I'll briefly touch on Armenia & Kazakhstan (Russia's treaty allies) later; here, let me just focus on China. China previously abstained on resolutions that touch on the war in Ukraine, so voting yes is indeed a new departure. Let's take a look at the language of resolution. Oops.

A couple of observations. First, the resolution is actually entitled "Cooperation between the United Nations and the Council of Europe" (so, Ukraine is kind of marginal here, and is only mentioned in paragraph 9 of the preamble. Full text here: digitallibrary.un.org/record/4009494….

Second, the resolution does not "condemn" Russia's aggression against Ukraine, but merely "recognises" that it has created "unprecedented challenges." Still.

It's worth noting that during the debate on the resolution, there were actually two votes. The first was whether to include paragraph 9 in the resolution. China (and Armenia & Kazakhstan) abstained. But since para 9 passed, the whole resolution was voted on as above.

You can watch the debate here: media.un.org/en/asset/k1g/k…. This includes a speech by the Russian delegate, lamenting "politisation" of the resolution, and "urg[ing] all the responsible members of the international community to vote against." Ehem.

As to what this could mean. First, the context. We have: Xi's recent visit to Moscow and his promise to Putin, on parting, "to push forward together." Significant. But it's also significant that the wording about "partnership without limits" evaporated from the joint doc.

We also have Defense Minister Li Shangfu's later visit to Moscow and indications of increasingly close Sino-Russian military cooperation. But - also - we have the recent phone conversation between Zelensky & Xi, where Xi reiterated support for Ukraine's territorial integrity.

So what we are seeing are in fact three things: First, Beijing is ticking some boxes to appear more neutral in the conflict than it actually is (Xi/Ze phone call & this resolution are thus part of the same pattern).

Second, this is a clear reminder to Moscow that it has very little leverage with China, and basically has to swallow what it's fed. It's an expected outcome of Putin's disastrous one-sided embrace of Beijing (and it's likely just the beginning).

Third, China continues to lean to one side, but with reservations. It seeks to freeze the conflict, rather than see it drag on indefinitely or escalate. A weakened / isolated Russia beholden to Beijing post-war objectively serves China's interests.

On Armenia / Kazakhstan. Each obviously has their own axe to grind with the Russians. Armenia can't be happy about Russia's reliability as a treaty ally in view of what's happening in Nagorno-Karabakh. Kazakhstan won't miss a chance to carefully stab Putin in the back.

I would, if I were them. Just a reminder: UNGA resolutions are non-binding, but good lord has this drawn a lot of attention. Rightly.