1/ Sanctions on the Russian aviation industry are leading to an increasing number of malfunctions and emergency landings, due to a lack of maintenance and technical support, and an acute shortage of spare parts. Safety is said to be gradually deteriorating. ⬇️
2/ The Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta reports that sanctions have had drastic effects on Russian airlines, which overwhelmingly rely on Western-made aircraft. Boeing and Airbus both cut off access to technical support and the supply of spare parts was stopped.
3/ Some spare parts are still available through "grey schemes", such as wheels and brakes. However, industry insiders say that such grey imports are arrive "much slower and cost more". Engine parts cannot be imported, forcing airlines to do costly maintenance work themselves.
4/ This affects Russian-made aircraft too, such as the Sukhoi Superjet 100 and MS-21, which both mostly rely on foreign-made components. Fuel filters are reportedly unavailable, leading the airlines to simply wash them and wait for them to fail instead of replacing them.
5/ The Russian aviation industry is replying on spare parts coming from places such as the UAE, China, Turkey and Iran. However, these reportedly take 3-4 times longer to arrive and cost 3-4 times as much. The supply chain is being choked off as sanctions are tightened.
6/ According to Novaya Gazeta, "spare parts suppliers have begun requiring intermediary companies in "friendly countries" (Turkey, UAE, China, Kazakhstan) to indicate the final recipient of spare parts, up to the tail number of the aircraft."
7/ "A number of countries (Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan) are simply in the "block" with large suppliers of aircraft parts and materials as violating sanctions."
8/ The Russian government compensated for these problems in the first year of the war with Ukraine by allocating them 172 billion rubles ($2.15 billion) from the federal budget, of which 100 billion ($1.25 billion) was intended to subsidise domestic transportation.
9/ However, this has only put off an inevitable crunch, which now seems to be arriving. Novaya Gazeta reports that airlines are cannibalising their aircraft for spare parts, while the planes that are still flying are suffering from decreasing reliability.
10/ As Novaya Gazeta comments, "Since the beginning of 2023, news feeds have increasingly received reports of malfunctions, depressurization, emergency landings of Western-made airliners from Russian operators: Aeroflot, Rossiya, Pobeda, Azur, UTair and others."
11/ The increased costs are also now likely to be passed on to passengers, with the Russian government mooting a 15-30% rise in the cost of domestic flights in Russia this summer. /end
1/ Russian soldiers have spoken about their experiences of being captured and later released by Ukraine, and what they plan to do next. Some are going back to the war, while others are disillusioned and trying to escape from their contracts. ⬇️
2/ Radio Free Europe has interviewed three men of very different backgrounds. They were among some 2,000 Russian soldiers exchanged in prisoner swaps with the Ukrainians. They include a long-serving mercenary, an alcoholic divorcee and a disillusioned volunteer.
3/ The mercenary, 43-year-old Viktor Masyagin, has been fighting in Ukraine since 2014. A veteran of the Chechen wars, he was among Igor "Strelkov" Girkin's men who briefly captured Sloviansk in 2014. Since then he has been fighting with the Veterans private military company.
1/ The 'People of Baikal' Telegram channel has published an explanation of the background to its story on the wounded Russian soldier Yegor Lebedev, for which it used an AI-generated image to protect his identity.
2/ "This is the story of a volunteer from Ust-Ilimsk wounded in Ukraine who had his money stolen and was fired from the service without his consent. We noted a comment in the Telegram channel of Igor Kobzev, governor of the Irkutsk region.
3/ "A user under the nickname "Matros" ["Sailor"] wrote that he was lying in the same hospital as a wounded man who told him about his problems with money and documents.
People of Baikal's correspondent contacted "Matros," whose real name is Arkady.
1/ Central Asian migrant workers recruited by Russian companies to dig trenches in occupied parts of Ukraine are complaining that they are not being paid, or in at least one case, are not even being allowed back into Russia. ⬇️
2/ The Sistema investigative project reports that a Moscow-based construction company recruited migrant workers from Tajikistan to dig trenches and build dugouts in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine in January 2023.
3/ The workers were to be paid a collective sum of 800,000 rubles ($11,400 at the January exchange rate) to dig a kilometer-long trench with dugouts. It was 15 km from the front line, so they were not concerned about being attacked. They lived in abandoned houses near Tokmak.
1/ This thread is the third part of @IanMatveev's translated analysis of the military and geographical considerations around possible Ukrainian offensive options in the south. Part 1 is here:
1/ This is a continuation of a translation of @IanMatveev's thread on the geographical and military considerations of a possible Ukrainian offensive in the south. For the first part, see here:
It is most advantageous to start a breakthrough in 3-4 directions at once, and on each also in several separate areas, to then develop those that will go well.
3/ How to choose a place for the breakthrough? This is influenced by two factors – the weakness of enemy defences and tactical expediency. They often conflict with each other.
1/ The excellent @IanMatveev has done another deep dive into military strategy in Ukraine – this time a look at the geographical considerations of a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south. See below for a translation (long thread ahead!).
2/ From @IanMatveev: The Ukrainian counter-offensive will certainly begin in the near future. What will it be like? It is quite possible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will attack in the direction of Melitopol and Crimea. Let's analyse such an offensive's main elements.
3/ On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukrainian forces can advance in two main directions - to Melitopol and Mariupol. I wrote about the pros and cons of both options here: t.me/arrowsmap/18 . Today we'll study one of them in detail – the one that I think is preferable.