Nick Bunker Profile picture
May 2, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
March 2023 #JOLTS Report:

The labor market continues to cool off

Job openings down to 9.6 million

Quits rate ticked down to 2.5%

Layoff rate up to 1.2%
December 2020 was the last time the layoff rate was as high as it was in March. Image
The quits rate ticked down in March to 2.5%, but it's still above its average in 2019 of 2.3% Image
The oft-cited ratio of job openings to unemployed workers declined to 1.6 in March, its lowest level since October 2021 Image
You never want to overreact to one month of data. Yet it's hard to not react to the spike in construction layoffs in March. Image
The Beveridge Curve continues to loop back to its pre-pandemic line. Hopefully it can do that without sliding down toward a higher unemployment rate. Image
Job openings in Retail Trade are crashing, down by over a quarter since December.

Retail Trade is now the only broad sector with fewer job openings in March than in February 2020. Image

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More from @nick_bunker

May 2, 2023
The Beveridge Curve was thrust into the spotlight last year as served as a sparring ground for a fight over the possibility of a soft landing.

With job openings dropping for the third straight month, it’s time to return to Beveridge space. 🧵
We’re now a year on from the post-pandemic peak in the job openings rate. In March 2022, the openings rate was 7.4% and has dropped down to 5.8% as of March 2023.

/2
About this time last year, Fed Gov Waller set off a debate about the possibility of a soft landing with a significant drop without spiking unemployment federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…

/3
Read 7 tweets
Mar 7, 2023
Ahead of tomorrow's JOLTS report, here's the latest data from the @Indeed Job Postings Index:

Job postings continue to decline and are now down 5.7% month-over-month as of March 3rd. New postings are dropping as well, down 3.9% m-o-m.

/1
The pullback in postings this year has been stark, but the postings are still elevated compared to their pre-pandemic baseline.

Total postings are up 33%, new postings — those on Indeed for seven or fewer days — are up 52%.

/2
Tomorrow @BLS_gov will publish data on the number of job openings at the end of January.

If openings grew at the same pace as job postings on Indeed, there were ~10.5 million openings on January 31st.

/3
Read 6 tweets
Nov 30, 2022
October 2022 #JOLTS Report: Strong and steady

Job openings down to 10.3 million

Private sector quits rate flat at 2.9%

Total layoffs steady at 0.9%
The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers ticked down to 1.7 from 1.9 in September, continuing its moderation in 2022.

But it's still very elevated from pre-pandemic level. Image
The quits rate continued to moderate, but the pace of descent is not very rapid.

Continued strong levels of job switching would keep nominal wage growth robust. Image
Read 8 tweets
Nov 29, 2022
Slightly delayed by the holiday, here's the November @indeed US Labor Market Update.

This month's Spotlight: 3 wage and compensation-related graphs to track in 2023

hiringlab.org/2022/11/29/nov…
As we head into 2023, whether or not wages and compensation slow down and the extent to which they do is a critical concern for job seekers, employers, and policymakers.

/2
The outlook for wage and compensation growth is still blurry, so here are 3 graphs to track in the months ahead that might bring things into focus

/3
Read 12 tweets
May 18, 2022
'Unretirements' continue to rise. As of April 2022, 3.3% of workers who were retired a year earlier are now employed.
That means roughly 1.7 million people in the past year have left retirement and taken a job.
The majority of ‘unretirees’ are taking part-time positions. Over the past three months, roughly 56% of workers returning to work were in jobs that were part-time.
Read 4 tweets
May 15, 2022
Curious about their contention about job openings overshooting most in industries most sensitive to financial conditions.
Sure, lots of growth in manufacturing. But construction is a relative laggard.

'Other services', 'education and health' and 'leisure and hospitality' are very FCI sensitive? Image
Williams made a similar point in his speech this week, contending that the Fed's interest rate tools are equipped to deal with an "overheating' labor market since much of the excess in the goods sector. newyorkfed.org/newsevents/spe…
Read 4 tweets

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