The Beveridge Curve was thrust into the spotlight last year as served as a sparring ground for a fight over the possibility of a soft landing.
With job openings dropping for the third straight month, it’s time to return to Beveridge space. 🧵
We’re now a year on from the post-pandemic peak in the job openings rate. In March 2022, the openings rate was 7.4% and has dropped down to 5.8% as of March 2023.
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About this time last year, Fed Gov Waller set off a debate about the possibility of a soft landing with a significant drop without spiking unemployment federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…
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As we head into 2023, whether or not wages and compensation slow down and the extent to which they do is a critical concern for job seekers, employers, and policymakers.
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The outlook for wage and compensation growth is still blurry, so here are 3 graphs to track in the months ahead that might bring things into focus
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'Unretirements' continue to rise. As of April 2022, 3.3% of workers who were retired a year earlier are now employed.
That means roughly 1.7 million people in the past year have left retirement and taken a job.
The majority of ‘unretirees’ are taking part-time positions. Over the past three months, roughly 56% of workers returning to work were in jobs that were part-time.
Sure, lots of growth in manufacturing. But construction is a relative laggard.
'Other services', 'education and health' and 'leisure and hospitality' are very FCI sensitive?
Williams made a similar point in his speech this week, contending that the Fed's interest rate tools are equipped to deal with an "overheating' labor market since much of the excess in the goods sector. newyorkfed.org/newsevents/spe…