Was tied up this morning, but #JOLTS looks interesting enough that it's worth a belated/abridged charts thread. I'm sure lots of others have already hit many of these points (looking at you, @nick_bunker, @DanielBZhao) but I can't resist.
Labor demand is clearly cooling. Job openings fell for the third straight month. Still high by historical standards, but now clearly falling (and quite rapidly).
The ratio of openings to unemployed workers hasn't been falling as steadily. But it's down to its lowest level since November 2021.
Quits aren't falling off a cliff, but they're also trending steadily down, suggesting workers are becoming more cautious about switching jobs.
The quits rate is now within two standard deviations of its prepandemic average (and only modestly above their prepandemic high). Openings still extremely high by historical standards, but falling rapidly.
Layoffs are still low by historical standards, but they're rising much more significantly than a few months ago. Hard to see in the total time series because of the pandemic spike, but clearer if you look at a truncated graph.
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U.S. employers added 253k jobs in April, defying (yet again) predictions of a slowdown. The unemployment rate ticked back down to 3.4%.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/05/0…
Notably February and March both revised down, by a combined 149k jobs.
Average hourly earnings stronger than expected -- up 0.5% from March, 4.4% from a year earlier. Consistent with the ECI data showing little slowdown in wage growth.
As expected, the Fed raised interest rates by another quarter point, its tenth increase in a bit more than a year. Rates are now the highest they've been since 2007, before the global financial crisis.
Statement: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/05/0…
March statement: "The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate..."
May statement: "In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time..."
In response to question from @jeannasmialek, Powell says that, "A decision on a pause was not made today." But he says the removal of the "anticipates" language was a "meaningful change."
For weeks now, I've been thinking about what to make of the U.S. economy right now. The job market is good -- historically good. Inflation is cooling. So why does it feel like another shoe is about to drop?
In the @nytimes today, I try to make sense of it nytimes.com/2023/04/14/bus…
Let's start here: The recovery from the pandemic recession has been nothing short of remarkable. Three years ago this month, the unemployment rate was nearly 15 percent. We'd lost 22 million jobs in a matter of weeks.
Today, incredibly, the job market is better than it was before the pandemic. The prime-age employment rate is the highest it's been in 20+ years. Among women, it has *never* been higher.
Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in March, and were up 5.0 percent from a year earlier.
Core price (ex food/energy) up 0.4 percent from Feb., 5.6 percent from a year ago.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/c…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/04/1…
The 5% increase in overall consumer prices is the slowest pace of year-over-year inflation since April 2021. Core inflation, though, has declined more slowly, which is part of why the Fed remains concerned.
Monthly data is very volatile (especially the for headline inflation). Year-over-year data incorporates a lot of old information. So it's helpful to look at the three-month trend. By that measure, both headline and core generally trending down.
Lots of talk (including by me!) that we might see a big downward revision to the January figure, but no: January revised down by a modest 13k, to +504k. December revised down by 21k to +239k.
We've added an average of 351,000 jobs over the past three months, 336k over the past six. Not sure we can say that job growth is *accelerating*, but it sure isn't slowing down meaningfully.
There were 10.8 million job openings at the end of January, down slightly from an upwardly-revised 11.2 million in December.
Layoffs up slightly. Quits down slightly. All consistent with a gradually cooling (but still hot) labor market. #JOLTS bls.gov/news.release/j…
The exception, of course, is hiring -- way up in January, to 6.1 million from 4.6 million in December. (Remember, these are gross figures, not net like in the monthly jobs report.) Consistent with the big gain we we saw in the jobs report last month.
Job openings *are* trending down. It's just a very slow process, and not a smooth one. Openings are still far above any prepandemic level.