Third, if the F-16 is unsustainable and unsurvivable, then spare a thought for the MiG-29s and Su-27s. Both the -29 and -27 are genuinely unsustainable in the medium-term due to lack of spares and repair/refurb capacity. It is imperative they be replaced.
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Despite this, Ukrainian fixed-wing has mostly managed to survive for 14+ months flying mainly DCA missions. Of course there will be F-16 losses, perhaps dozens, and we will have to accept that. This is a conventional war.
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Fourth, I refuse to take anyone who says GBAD instead of fixed-wing seriously unless they can tell me the availability of the US Army ADA's 50 Patriot batteries and the impact of donating 10-20% of them on readiness.
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PS, it is mind-numbing that this "25-year veteran of the USAF" does not mention the role of electronic fires or electronic attack aircraft in conducting SEAD once.
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For those unfamiliar with IBCS (Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System), it's the U.S. Army ADA's (Air Defense Artillery) new integrated C4ISR system.
With the appropriate integration kits, the IBCS EOC (Engagement Operations Center) will be able to provide C2 to any and all Western radars and SAMs that Ukraine operates, bypassing their organic C2 centers. It's open architecture, so integration kits can be developed as needed.
This is meant to enable an "any sensor, any effector" capability, where any integrated sensor (e.g. radar) can provide tracking and targeting data to any integrated effector (e.g. SAM launcher).
The following is an English summary of an interview with @TarasChmut by @mil_in_ua on 4 MAR for the first anniversary of the π·πΊ invasion of πΊπ¦. @magictouch190 kindly translated and prepared this summary which I have edited into this π§΅.
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1. Prior to 24 FEB, a project was approved for @backandalive to perform minor upgrades/repairs to the Tochka-Us of the 19th Missile Brigade (19 RBr). These were expected to enhance the systemβs precision and speed of deployment.
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This project was later partially completed. During the invasion, a new idea was also implemented. Specifically, the creation and provision of a new type of command post to the 19 RBr.
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Looks like it's time for a short Sapsan/Hrim-2 update. Disclaimer: the linked thread is the summary of a π·πΊ TG post. I don't know whether Sapsan is actually operational or not. I would treat this claim with caution as with all π·πΊ claims. So let's begin this π§΅.
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This is an incredible achievement for πΊπ¦ and an monumental failure for π·πΊ. Now that the worst seems to have passed, it's time for a another π§΅ on π·πΊ standoff munition inventory and production capacity going forward.
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Per this graphic from @oleksiireznikov, as of Jan. 3 π·πΊ had 59 Kalibr SLCMs and 118 Kh-101/555 ALCMs for a total of 177 units plus 52 9M728/9M729 GLCMs and 116 Kh-22/32 AShMs.
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For production, Budanov (Director of GUR) indicated that π·πΊ was producing 20 Kalibrs and 30 Kh-101s (50 total) per month as of Jan. 8. Based on the graphic, we find a production rate of 3-4 9M723 ["Iskander-M"] SRBMs and 2 9M728/729s per month.
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As there seems to be confusion about π΅π± HIMARS, here is a short π§΅to clarify. π΅π± is ordering 18 M142 HIMARS plus 468 HIMARS Launcher Loader Module (LLM) kits from πΊπΈ. The LLM "IS" HIMARS, it is literally the launcher assembly. They will be installed on a π΅π± domestic chassis.
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This means π΅π± is buying 486 HIMARS, 468 of which will be indigenized. The chassis will likely be the Jelcz P882 that is being used for the indigenization of the K239 Chunmoo from π°π·. π΅π± will also presumably install their TOPAZ FCS to enable it to launch their π°π· missiles.
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For πΊπΈ missiles, π΅π± is purchasing 521 GMLRS-U/IMPS (3,126 M31A2), 461 GMLRS-AW/IMPS (2,766 M30A2), and 532 ER GMLRS-AW (3,192 XM403) guided missiles plus 45 M57 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles (TBMs).
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