Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Profile picture
John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
@John_A_Ridge
Physics | Weapons Systems | National Security | Foreign Policy | Arms Exports | Security Assistance | Contributor @tochnyi | Donate @LibertyUkraineF
18 subscribers
Oct 7 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
@Lesya_G @JSetka @P_Kallioniemi @MriyaReport @MriyaAid Hi Lesya, as you may know I was a volunteer on Walter Report, later Mriya Report, from May 2022 to January 2023.

I have Mriya Report internal communications that detail continuous coordination between MR and the MA board from the creation of MR in July 2022 through January 2023. @Lesya_G @JSetka @P_Kallioniemi @MriyaReport @MriyaAid Given the turnover in the MA since then, I’m inclined to assume you may be unaware of that prior history.

The assertion there was no coordination between MA and MR is, from my perspective, demonstrably false. I’m happy to provide excerpted communications to that effect.
Oct 2 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
A brief round up of what we do actually know thus far about Iran's ballistic missile raid against Israel, named "Operation True Promise 2" by the IRGC.

Starting with the missiles, Iran employed 180-200 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), including Ghadr, Emad, and Kheibarshekan or Fattah-1. A derivative of the Shahab-3, Ghadr is a liquid-fueled MRBM that ordinarily carries a single separable reentry vehicle (RV). These specfic missiles have been upgraded with maneuvering reentry vehicles (MaRVs).

Ghadr is one of the primary missiles Iran employed against Israel in April during "Operation True Promise."
Aug 30 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Having read the PCL a few more times, some added clarification.

It does not appear *classified* defense articles were exported to China, Russia, or Iran.

Unauthorized exports of classified defense articles were made to Australia, Germany, Norway, Canada, Israel, and the UAE.
Image Although defense articles designated as Significant Military Equipment were exported to China without authorization, that SME does not appear to be classified. Image
Image
Aug 17 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Ukrainian PATRIOT Remote Launcher Group with four claimed Launching Stations.

This is a real PATRIOT RLG as a M903 LS fires two PAC-3 rounds against an incoming Iskander-M. Effects are unclear, but the LS are likely damaged.

(Geolocation @klinger66)
1|6

Image
Image Neither an Antenna Mast Group nor Communications Relay Group and Electric Power Unit are visible.

The CRG acting as the RLG's Launcher Control Station plus AMG and EPU are emplaced at a different site. RL1 enables the CRG/LCS to communicate with LS up to 10 km away via VHF.
2|6
Image
Image
Jun 13 • 23 tweets • 9 min read
So what is S-500? S-500 is a long-range air and missile defense system operated by the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces).

It is a direct derivative of S-300V, the principal long-range maneuver SAM operated by the SV (Russian Ground Forces).
1|23
Image I won't detail the complete program history of S-300P/F/V as @ChungTzuW has already written excellent threads about them which I strongly recommend reading for context.

In short, all three systems emerged from a joint VKS/VMF/SV procurement program.
2|23
May 24 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Why is GLSDB more susceptible to Russian electronic warfare than SDB? A few thoughts.

SDB and GLSDB are identical and share a GPS/IMU set. The relevant differences are range and target selection.
1|5

(Repost due to typo)
Image GLSDB has a range of >150 km while SDB has a range of ~110 km from a ~12 km release altitude and ~270 m/s release airspeed.

Position error due to accumulated inertial measurement unit drift is quadratically proportional to time of flight and range by extension.
2|5 Image
Mar 26 • 28 tweets • 11 min read
So what is 3M22 Tsirkon (SS-N-33)? I have some thoughts based on written Russian sources, published test footage, and conversations with Ukrainian colleagues.

Is Tsirkon a “hypersonic (anti-ship) cruise missile? The answer is “yesn’t”👇🏻
1|20 While renders from the past decade depict it as a rocket-assisted scramjet vehicle, similar to X-51 Waverider, this is not accurate to the system that has been fielded.

I suspect that they potentially depict an earlier Tsirkon concept that was abandoned or not pursued.
2|20

Image
Image
Image
Mar 23 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This is going to be a spicy 🧵, especially for Ukrainians.

But people need to realize that there was no feasible way for Ukraine to have retained its Soviet nuclear weapons in the 1990s. And attempting to would not have ensured Ukraine’s sovereignty.
1|7 Russia had the codes for the weapons’ Permissive Action Links. Ukraine had no way to arm them without rebuilding the weapons and replacing their PALs.

Moreover, Ukraine could not maintain the warheads, which required regular servicing, without Russian assistance.
2|7
Mar 19 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Lots of goodies, will summarize some interesting items.
$430.1M (Defense Wide) for Guam Defense System, with $181.3M for RDT&E, $800K for Procurement, and $248M for MILCON. Image $1.06B (USA/USMC/USN) for Maritime Strike TLAM (MST) across all services, with $535.6 for RDT&E and $533.7M for Procurement. This would fund the conversion of up to ~228 additional TLAM All-Up Rounds into MST AURs. Image
Mar 2 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Good overview of the challenges facing the Marine. Some additional context for SM-2 production. The SM-2 Block IIIAZ All-Up Rounds ordered from Raytheon are new build as far as I am aware. They are modifications of existing USN SM-2 Block IIIA stock.
Image The USN ordered 94 SM-2IIIAZ MODs and does not appear to be pursuing additional orders and there are no pending FMS orders. SM-2 Block IIIC MODS will likely continue through 2035 for the USN's Acquisition Objective for 1,000 SM-2IIIC AURs as well as FMS actions. Image
Dec 25, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Getting some pushback on my comments concerning @MriyaReport last night.

To clarify for those that aren’t familiar, myself and about 50% of the MR team (and 100% of MR’s subject matter experts) left in January 2023 because we were uncomfortable with the direction it was taking. We became deeply uncomfortable with the volume of misinformation about the frontline and other topics that was being aired by MR’s leadership, @BalticSnowTiger (Axel) and @YAmzallagh (Joe), as well as frequent guests such as @ChuckPfarrer.
Dec 1, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
.@anduriltech Roadrunner Round 2: I wrote my prior thread last night having only read the tweets and not some of the ancillary info and I was wrong about a few things, so wanted to go back and do something more serious. Roadrunner is a reusable VTOL Group 3 UAS that supports a variety of modular payloads. Roadrunner-M is a Roadrunner equipped with a high explosive warhead for use as C-UAS effector against G-3 UAS threats.
Sep 10, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
So, much respect to Brynn, but a few issues with this thread. The ATACMS procurement figures are completely wrong. @ColbyBadhwar has a near exact breakdown of US inventory coming out in a few days, so standby for that Also, no ATACMS were procured in FY23 according to the published FY23 and FY24 P-1s. The 2023 NDAA authorized the purchase of additional ATACMS, but no funding was appropriated in support of it afaik.
Jul 10, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
So regarding S-200's apparent land attack capability. S-200 employs semi-active radar guidance so there is at least an onboard guidance computer that an IMU could theoretically be integrated with. https://t.co/jFpB3xBu14
I've yet to find a written source that explicitly indicates that S-200 has a surface-to-surface capability or that the 5V28 has an INS. This source references an automatic ascent maneuver and self-destruct if target reflection is lost and not reacquired.
missilery.info/missile/c200
Jun 27, 2023 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
A few thoughts based on this piece from @epravda on the leadership shakeup at Ukroboronprom, 🇺🇦's state-owned defense conglomerate. @CrimsonInquiry has done an excellent 🧵 summarizing most of the key points.
1|12
Particularly noteworthy is the reported increase in shell production since @AKamyshin became Minister of Strategic Industries. The fact he was able to effect a >1,100% increase in quantity of shells produced within a few weeks is genuinely astounding.
2|12
May 19, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Time for another Russian standoff munition production update 🧵. These are the latest public production estimates from HUR, courtesy of RBC Ukraine. Russia is now reportedly producing ~60 cruise missiles and 7 ballistic missiles (5 surface-launched, 2 air-launched) per month.
1|9 Image Compared to prior estimates, this represents an overall 20% growth in CM production compared to JAN 2023, rising from ~50 to ~60 units monthly. Kh-101 and Kalibr production both increased by 5 units each.
2|9
May 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I've been asked to write a brief 🧵 on why this thread is wrong, so here we go. First, the comparison to 5GA is a non-sequiter. They perform entirely different functions to standoff munitions, so the comparison is irrelevant.
1|5 Second, there are more inexpensive means to defeat loitering munitions and one-way attack (OWA) UAVs than AAMs or even most SAMs. There are AAGs for example not to mention that MANPADS aren't actually that expensive.
2|5
May 2, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A few things. First, it's The Heritage Foundation, so who gives a damn? Second, I'm not sure how many times I have to scream this, but

THE CURRENT PRIMARY MISSION SET OF THE PS ZSU IS DEFENSIVE COUNTER AIR.

Ukraine's AD network cannot function without an ABAD component.
1|4 Third, if the F-16 is unsustainable and unsurvivable, then spare a thought for the MiG-29s and Su-27s. Both the -29 and -27 are genuinely unsustainable in the medium-term due to lack of spares and repair/refurb capacity. It is imperative they be replaced.
2|4
Apr 30, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Twitter firearm nerds, what the hell is this? My initial guess was either a DShK or perhaps a 23 mm 2A14 (or 2A7) autocannon on an improvised mount. @CalibreObscura @UAWeapons
Apr 24, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
For those unfamiliar with IBCS (Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System), it's the U.S. Army ADA's (Air Defense Artillery) new integrated C4ISR system. ImageImage With the appropriate integration kits, the IBCS EOC (Engagement Operations Center) will be able to provide C2 to any and all Western radars and SAMs that Ukraine operates, bypassing their organic C2 centers. It's open architecture, so integration kits can be developed as needed. Image
Mar 11, 2023 • 41 tweets • 18 min read
The following is an English summary of an interview with @TarasChmut by @mil_in_ua on 4 MAR for the first anniversary of the 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦. @magictouch190 kindly translated and prepared this summary which I have edited into this 🧵.
0|38
1. Prior to 24 FEB, a project was approved for @backandalive to perform minor upgrades/repairs to the Tochka-Us of the 19th Missile Brigade (19 RBr). These were expected to enhance the system’s precision and speed of deployment.
1|38