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John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Profile picture
John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
@John_A_Ridge
Physics | Munitions Understander | Missile Appreciator | Complex Azimuth Raider | NATSEC/Defense | Contributor @tochnyi | Donate @BackAndAlive | #NAFO
Peter Durbin Profile picture Jeremy Wagstaff Profile picture GollyG 💙 Profile picture +🇺🇦 JAFO 🇺🇸+ Profile picture Elijah Arul Profile picture 15 subscribed
Mar 26 • 28 tweets • 11 min read
So what is 3M22 Tsirkon (SS-N-33)? I have some thoughts based on written Russian sources, published test footage, and conversations with Ukrainian colleagues.

Is Tsirkon a “hypersonic (anti-ship) cruise missile? The answer is “yesn’t”👇🏻
1|20 While renders from the past decade depict it as a rocket-assisted scramjet vehicle, similar to X-51 Waverider, this is not accurate to the system that has been fielded.

I suspect that they potentially depict an earlier Tsirkon concept that was abandoned or not pursued.
2|20

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Mar 23 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This is going to be a spicy 🧵, especially for Ukrainians.

But people need to realize that there was no feasible way for Ukraine to have retained its Soviet nuclear weapons in the 1990s. And attempting to would not have ensured Ukraine’s sovereignty.
1|7 Russia had the codes for the weapons’ Permissive Action Links. Ukraine had no way to arm them without rebuilding the weapons and replacing their PALs.

Moreover, Ukraine could not maintain the warheads, which required regular servicing, without Russian assistance.
2|7
Mar 2 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Good overview of the challenges facing the Marine. Some additional context for SM-2 production. The SM-2 Block IIIAZ All-Up Rounds ordered from Raytheon are new build as far as I am aware. They are modifications of existing USN SM-2 Block IIIA stock.
Image The USN ordered 94 SM-2IIIAZ MODs and does not appear to be pursuing additional orders and there are no pending FMS orders. SM-2 Block IIIC MODS will likely continue through 2035 for the USN's Acquisition Objective for 1,000 SM-2IIIC AURs as well as FMS actions. Image
Dec 25, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Getting some pushback on my comments concerning @MriyaReport last night.

To clarify for those that aren’t familiar, myself and about 50% of the MR team (and 100% of MR’s subject matter experts) left in January 2023 because we were uncomfortable with the direction it was taking. We became deeply uncomfortable with the volume of misinformation about the frontline and other topics that was being aired by MR’s leadership, @BalticSnowTiger (Axel) and @YAmzallagh (Joe), as well as frequent guests such as @ChuckPfarrer.
Dec 1, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
.@anduriltech Roadrunner Round 2: I wrote my prior thread last night having only read the tweets and not some of the ancillary info and I was wrong about a few things, so wanted to go back and do something more serious. Roadrunner is a reusable VTOL Group 3 UAS that supports a variety of modular payloads. Roadrunner-M is a Roadrunner equipped with a high explosive warhead for use as C-UAS effector against G-3 UAS threats.
Sep 10, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
So, much respect to Brynn, but a few issues with this thread. The ATACMS procurement figures are completely wrong. @ColbyBadhwar has a near exact breakdown of US inventory coming out in a few days, so standby for that Also, no ATACMS were procured in FY23 according to the published FY23 and FY24 P-1s. The 2023 NDAA authorized the purchase of additional ATACMS, but no funding was appropriated in support of it afaik.
Jul 10, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
So regarding S-200's apparent land attack capability. S-200 employs semi-active radar guidance so there is at least an onboard guidance computer that an IMU could theoretically be integrated with. https://t.co/jFpB3xBu14
I've yet to find a written source that explicitly indicates that S-200 has a surface-to-surface capability or that the 5V28 has an INS. This source references an automatic ascent maneuver and self-destruct if target reflection is lost and not reacquired.
missilery.info/missile/c200
Jun 27, 2023 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
A few thoughts based on this piece from @epravda on the leadership shakeup at Ukroboronprom, 🇺🇦's state-owned defense conglomerate. @CrimsonInquiry has done an excellent 🧵 summarizing most of the key points.
1|12
Particularly noteworthy is the reported increase in shell production since @AKamyshin became Minister of Strategic Industries. The fact he was able to effect a >1,100% increase in quantity of shells produced within a few weeks is genuinely astounding.
2|12
May 19, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Time for another Russian standoff munition production update 🧵. These are the latest public production estimates from HUR, courtesy of RBC Ukraine. Russia is now reportedly producing ~60 cruise missiles and 7 ballistic missiles (5 surface-launched, 2 air-launched) per month.
1|9 Image Compared to prior estimates, this represents an overall 20% growth in CM production compared to JAN 2023, rising from ~50 to ~60 units monthly. Kh-101 and Kalibr production both increased by 5 units each.
2|9
May 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I've been asked to write a brief 🧵 on why this thread is wrong, so here we go. First, the comparison to 5GA is a non-sequiter. They perform entirely different functions to standoff munitions, so the comparison is irrelevant.
1|5 Second, there are more inexpensive means to defeat loitering munitions and one-way attack (OWA) UAVs than AAMs or even most SAMs. There are AAGs for example not to mention that MANPADS aren't actually that expensive.
2|5
May 2, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A few things. First, it's The Heritage Foundation, so who gives a damn? Second, I'm not sure how many times I have to scream this, but

THE CURRENT PRIMARY MISSION SET OF THE PS ZSU IS DEFENSIVE COUNTER AIR.

Ukraine's AD network cannot function without an ABAD component.
1|4 Third, if the F-16 is unsustainable and unsurvivable, then spare a thought for the MiG-29s and Su-27s. Both the -29 and -27 are genuinely unsustainable in the medium-term due to lack of spares and repair/refurb capacity. It is imperative they be replaced.
2|4
Apr 30, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Twitter firearm nerds, what the hell is this? My initial guess was either a DShK or perhaps a 23 mm 2A14 (or 2A7) autocannon on an improvised mount. @CalibreObscura @UAWeapons
Apr 24, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
For those unfamiliar with IBCS (Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System), it's the U.S. Army ADA's (Air Defense Artillery) new integrated C4ISR system. ImageImage With the appropriate integration kits, the IBCS EOC (Engagement Operations Center) will be able to provide C2 to any and all Western radars and SAMs that Ukraine operates, bypassing their organic C2 centers. It's open architecture, so integration kits can be developed as needed. Image
Mar 11, 2023 • 41 tweets • 18 min read
The following is an English summary of an interview with @TarasChmut by @mil_in_ua on 4 MAR for the first anniversary of the 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦. @magictouch190 kindly translated and prepared this summary which I have edited into this 🧵.
0|38
1. Prior to 24 FEB, a project was approved for @backandalive to perform minor upgrades/repairs to the Tochka-Us of the 19th Missile Brigade (19 RBr). These were expected to enhance the system’s precision and speed of deployment.
1|38
Mar 7, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Looks like it's time for a short Sapsan/Hrim-2 update. Disclaimer: the linked thread is the summary of a 🇷🇺 TG post. I don't know whether Sapsan is actually operational or not. I would treat this claim with caution as with all 🇷🇺 claims. So let's begin this 🧵.
1|7 Below is the prior thread that I wrote on Sapsan for reference.
2|7
Feb 17, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
This is an incredible achievement for 🇺🇦 and an monumental failure for 🇷🇺. Now that the worst seems to have passed, it's time for a another 🧵 on 🇷🇺 standoff munition inventory and production capacity going forward.
1|8 Per this graphic from @oleksiireznikov, as of Jan. 3 🇷🇺 had 59 Kalibr SLCMs and 118 Kh-101/555 ALCMs for a total of 177 units plus 52 9M728/9M729 GLCMs and 116 Kh-22/32 AShMs.
2|8
Feb 8, 2023 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
As there seems to be confusion about 🇵🇱 HIMARS, here is a short 🧵to clarify. 🇵🇱 is ordering 18 M142 HIMARS plus 468 HIMARS Launcher Loader Module (LLM) kits from 🇺🇸. The LLM "IS" HIMARS, it is literally the launcher assembly. They will be installed on a 🇵🇱 domestic chassis.
1|5 Image This means 🇵🇱 is buying 486 HIMARS, 468 of which will be indigenized. The chassis will likely be the Jelcz P882 that is being used for the indigenization of the K239 Chunmoo from 🇰🇷. 🇵🇱 will also presumably install their TOPAZ FCS to enable it to launch their 🇰🇷 missiles.
2|5 ImageImageImage
Feb 8, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts and comments on this 🧵. The conclusions presented are frankly excessively pessimistic IMO in their estimation of 🇺🇸 relative capabilities. Let's go through point by point.
1|8 Korea:
-🇺🇸/🇰🇷 have the capability to eliminate 🇰🇵 in a conventional conflict, barring direct 🇨🇳 intervention.
-🇰🇵 is nuclear weapon state and the logic of MAD applies.
- 🇰🇷/🇰🇵 status quo is both sustainable and highly unlikely to change.
2|8
Jan 25, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🇺🇸 Abrams main battle tanks being delivered to 🇺🇦 under USAI rather than PDA is an interesting development. A short 🧵on the possible explanations.
1/5 Option A: 🇺🇦 will receive new build Abrams.
These would likely be M1A2 SEPv3s, the latest Abrams variant, as it is currently the only Abrams variant the Lima Tank Plant has a new build production line for AFAIK.
2/5
Dec 13, 2022 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
Sigh, looks like I need to explain cruise missile guidance and route planning again. The word "turns" is somewhat misleading in this context and the phrase "demanding on the guidance system" lacks technical meaning. A 🧵with some context and explanations. 1/18 Below is a previous short 🧵I did on the subject to clear up similar misconceptions. 2/18
Dec 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
RE: the Saky debate. I recommend avoiding drawing hasty conclusions regarding the availability of ATACMS. 🇺🇦 has received at least 13 M270 MLRS from 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪, and 🇫🇷. Unless they have been similarly modified, the 🇬🇧 M270B1, 🇩🇪 MARS II, and 🇫🇷 LRU should all support ATACMS. 1/3 🇺🇦 received a number of M270B1s in July and MARS II in August (unknown if they arrived before or after Saky). This piece also explicitly highlights that there are a number of other nations potentially willing to provide ATACMS to 🇺🇦. 2/3