Ukrainian forces (currently clinging to about 5% of Bakhmut) have been attempting to demolish several of the high rises on the western edge of the town, but were unable to due to inadequate explosives. This is interesting for two reasons.
First, the attempted demolitions are a preparation for the loss of the city. The terrain to the west is wide open and mostly flat. High rises on the perimeter of Bakhmut would give Russia a dominant position overlooking the terrain on the approach to Chasiv Yar.
For that reason, demolishing these buildings is an obvious priority for Ukraine now that it is on the verge of losing its remaining toehold in the city.
The second reason it's interesting is that they've tried a few times and they just don't have enough explosives on hand.
This is indirect confirmation that the remaining AFU in Bakhmut are fighting in a vacuum, cut off from supply. Requisitioning explosives for this demolition should be a high priority, but it seems they have to try to make do with what they had on hand.
In any case, Wagner is moving quickly right now, the end in Bakhmut is a foregone conclusion, and right now Ukraine is unable to organize an effective withdrawal.
Here is some recent footage showing the state of the highway between Chasiv-Yar and Ivanivske. This is on the T-0504 highway, looking east towards Bakhmut which can be seen smoking in the distance.
Note, this isn't the road directly into Bakhmut, so this isn't even a portion of the road where Russia has direct fire. This clip was taken here, several miles from the frontline, and is still littered with wrecked vehicles:
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Really enjoyed this new book from David Stahel. It looks at how these officers balanced the public pressures put on them by the Hitler regime, the criminality of the Wehrmacht in the east, and the increasingly difficult military exigencies.
Interestingly, Stahel’s main distinctive source is correspondences between the generals and their wives. This adds a candid and intimate look at what they were thinking in real time.
It’s a nice book, which reconciles how these men can be four things at once - private individuals, public figures, accessories to war crimes, and often brilliant military professionals. The book is not long, either - about 300 pages.
Big Bears are in the air. Let’s see what gets hit tonight.
Air defense was smashed in Pavlovgrad - a transit hub in the operational rear of the Donbas.
Ukraine is going to say that they hit a hospital or a kindergarten or something, even though there’s already lots of footage showing plentiful secondary explosions and cook off.
By 1944, Japan was facing crippling shortages of fuel and munitions. This amplified the already acute inter-service rivalry in the Japanese military, wherein the Army and Navy would compete for resources and pursue independent plans. (1)
With fuel in short supply, the armed branches were at odds to claim dwindling supplies. The dispute came to a head when the navy began planning to dispute the American invasion of the Philippines - this would require a sort of last throw of the dice for the Japanese fleet. (2)
The naval command staff didn’t even bother to argue that a successful battle could be waged. Instead, they asked that they be given the fuel needed to wage a final battle. “The Navy asks for this honor”, they said. The army agreed. (3)
The remaining Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut are supplied across a dirt road from Ivaniske. At this point, no high rise blocks or strongpoints remain in Wagner's path to this crucial last supply line - only detached homes.
The Russian path to cut the last road out consists of about a mile of single story detached homes. The more defensible high rises need not factor in at all. For many reasons, detached homes are much harder to defend. Infiltration is easier, cover is less robust, sight is reduced.
Fighting continues along the rail line in the center of the city, but I would expect Wagner to start moving across the northern flank through the suburban district. If they can take up a strongly held position at the intersection marked above, it's over for the AFU grouping.
Ukraine is begging for F-16’s by putting emojis on its diplomatic planes.
I think that if Ukraine is still in the field by the autumn, there will probably be serious talk of training them on F-16's, but it's hard to emphasize how little it will matter. Russian air defense has really not been stressed or depleted at all.
I actually have always loved the F-16. It really is an iconic aircraft, and for that reason it doesn't deserve to be put into service in Ukraine.
Quick note on what's happening in Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces in the city are being ground out right now and are very unlikely to hold out much longer, with multiple axes of Russian advance converging on the remaining UA held areas. (1)
Russian progress has been steady over the last few weeks. Rybar's maps from March 20 and April 3 show the steady contraction of Ukraine's positions inside the city. (2)
The battle is in its climactic phase. The previous focus was the Russian envelopment on the wings, but over the last few weeks Russian forces have begun to break down Ukraine's remaining positions in the city proper. (3)