Mark Galeotti Profile picture
May 3 5 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Obviously the Kremlin drone story is still very much a breaking one, but people should really stop talking about this as an attempted assassination attempts against Putin. That's just playing to Kremlin talking points 1/
He notoriously rarely goes to the Kremlin, let alone stays there overnight, and there were no scheduled early morning meetings or the like there which might make one assume he might be in his (palatial) flat there 2/
Besides, that is, I understand, quite well protected. Not quite a bunker, but something that would be hard to hit by anything unable to make some sharp turns, which would make it vulnerable 3/
So instead, if we presume it was a Ukrainian attack, consider it a performative strike, a demonstration of capability and a declaration of intent: "don't think Moscow is safe." 4/
That is, after all, a clear message. What is less clear is whether it shakes Russians' nerve or angers them. We'll have to see. (And what Washington thinks, given that it seems to have been trying to get Kyiv to abandon, not step up its attacks deep into Russia.) 5/end

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More from @MarkGaleotti

May 2
A lengthy extract from my @OspreyBooks/@BloomsburyBooks book PUTIN'S WARS in @BusinessInsider, from the chapter on Spetsnaz. Of course, so many have since become casualties of the Ukraine war that this becomes more historical than anything else... 1/
businessinsider.com/mark-galeotti-…
Reconstituting these forces is more than just a matter of finding more warm bodies. Judging by memorials and the like, tactical officers have suffered disproportionate losses, so even if new 'Spetsnaz' are drafted into units, who will train and command them in the field? 2/
Similar things can be said about the VDV (paras) and MP (Naval Inf), but the Spetsnaz seem to have suffered even worse and demand even more from their tactical officers. They will need to be rebuilt near enough from scratch when the war is over. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Apr 13
A key problem with Macron's trip to China and comments is that - whatever his intention - they are interpreted in Moscow as signs of the impending fracture of the West, which only encourages digging in over Ukraine... 1/
kp.ru/daily/27489/47…
...Given that Moscow's strategy is now pinned to victory not on the battlefield but through politics, outlasting the West's will and capacity to support Ukraine. The idea is that when the aid stops, Kyiv will be forced to concessions. Realistic or not, this is the plan... 2/
...Which Putin likely believes because he has to - it fits his prejudices about the West and anyway it's the only real option he's got. To that end, every hint of division in the West becomes magnified to reassure Russians - and Putin - that this will not last forever... 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 30
Evan Gershkovich's is a shocking example of the way that these days the Kremlin doesn't even feel the need to have the most basic pretext to use hostage-taking as a tool of statecraft. Although… 1/
#EvanGershkovich
…on reflection, it's not so much the act of a state as a bandit gang. I've just submitted to the publishers the manuscript of a book which is, essentially, a history of the world told through the medium of organised crime. A key theme is how efficient bandit gangs can… 2/
…become the bases for states. What's deeply worrying and depressing is how quickly and eagerly Russia which, for all the cheap characterisations as a 'Mafia State' was actually something rather more complex, is being dragged into semi-medievalism by Putin and his thugs 4/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 22
Lots of hot takes after Xi's trip to Moscow saying Russia's vassalage now a done deal. As I say in this piece for @spectator, I don't think it's as cut and dried. Yes, China is now more powerful and Putin is looking for support, but... 1/
spectator.co.uk/article/after-…
Russia's growing turn on China as a market does also lead to a degree of mutual dependence. Just as Putin's European 'energy weapon' was overblown, so too it's not quite the case that Beijing now calls the shots absolutely because of this, especially as... 2/
While Putin seems obsessed with his struggle with Ukraine/West to the exclusion of other concerns - this is the defining conflict of his presidency - there is a strong Sinosceptic or even Sinophobic mood in the elite, especially the next political generation... 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 16
My third (and last!) @OspreyBooks book of the year, a dig into the 2008 Russo-Georgian War that in some ways contributed to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. How? Read on... 1/
ospreypublishing.com/uk/russias-fiv…
The war saw the first Russian attempt at coordinated modern political/cyber/intel/military ops, not always done so well, but it turned out to be a harbinger of the future, and something Moscow decided had real potential 2/ Image
More to the point, the mediocre performance of Russian forces allowed Defence Minister Serdyukov and CoGS Makarov to impose reforms on a recalcitrant high command, reorienting the military towards smaller-scale intervention missions rather than 'big war', which proved... 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 7
It's striking just how quickly Moscow's authority in Central Asia has collapsed. A thread, spinning off the claim by National Anti-Corruption Committee (NAC) Kirill Kabanov chair that "there is no respect for Russia in Central Asia" 1/
mk.ru/politics/2023/…
Kabanov claims that, despite close economic ties and direct aid from Moscow, "the people and elites of these countries do not extend their love to Russia. On the contrary, a common history is being destroyed or rewritten from the positions of colonialism and oppression" 2/
Of course, there is a sinister threat: Kabanov claims that after the visits of US officials, state sponsored "anti-Russian rhetoric has moved to a new level" in the region 3/
Read 11 tweets

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