Will be crunching #LocalElections2023 numbers tonight into the small hours and then tomorrow... we'll be analysing data from thousands of wards. Look out for our @SkyNews data visualisations via @gurpreetnarwan@EdConwaySky as results come in.
@SkyNews@gurpreetnarwan@EdConwaySky@DanielJDunford People have incredibly short memories in politics. In 2021 people were writing Labour off for the immediate future. We will find out tonight if those predictions were premature.
Labour has continued to make larger gains in areas with fewer university graduates, while the Conservatives are going back fastest in areas with more... #LocalElections2023@SkyNews
@SkyNews This pattern maps onto the Brexit vote. Labour has enjoyed largest gains in wards that voted to Leave the EU in 2016, while the Conservatives have experienced biggest losses in areas that voted to Remain.
@SkyNews The Brexit realignment appears to be partially unwinding, while the Conservatives are not regaining ground with graduate, Remainers but instead continuing to lose support.
Important analysis from @BethRigby ahead of the local elections - noting the historical pattern of swing back towards the government after the final local elections before a general election.
@BethRigby Of course, we may yet have a further round of local elections in May 2024 before the next general election. Also note that the smallest recoveries from local elections were experienced at what were widely considered to be 'change' elections - 1979 and 1997.
@BethRigby Looking at historical data on the 'national equivalent vote' back to 1973, there is a striking tendency for Labour to under-perform national polling in the locals. (Dotted lines here are +/- 5 per cent difference between the NEV and polls the month before.)