In today's #vatniksoup, I'll be talking about the Russian style of online propaganda and disinformation, "Firehose of Falsehood". It's a commonly used Kremlin strategy for Russian information operations, which often prioritizes quantity over quality.
1/23
I have mentioned this particular strategy in many of my previous soups, but have never discussed it in more detail, so here goes. The term was originally coined by Paul & Matthews in their 2016 paper, The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model.
2/23
They based this name on two distinctive features: 1) high volume, multi-channel approach, and 2) shameless willingness to spread disinformation.
Academic Giorgio Bertolin described Russian disinformation as entertaining, confusing and overwhelming.
3/23
The high volume, multi-channel approach means that these operatives attempt to control the narrative on each major social media platform. Russia has conducted, and is conducting, these operations on Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, Telegram, VKontakte, YouTube, and even on Tinder.
4/23
The volume of these operations shouldn't be underestimated: already back in 2015, more than 1000 paid trolls worked at Yevgeny Prigozhin's Internet Research Agency (IRA), the most well-known troll farm in Russia, and each commentator had a daily quota of 100 comments.
5/23
These numbers have probably gone up a LOT since then, and many more countries are using troll farms to conduct political campaigns or to spread propaganda.
One of the most famous case of social manipulation was the social media influencing around the Khashoggi murder.
6/23
These trolls would work in shifts, and the work goes on daily around the clock. A better description of these sweatshops would be troll factories, since they have turned trolling into an assembly line of propaganda and disinformation.
7/23
The high volume is accompanied with the willingness to spread disinformation. Russia often utilizes the "throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks" strategy, pushing out hundreds of contradicting and false narratives, only to see if some of them starts gaining traction.
8/23
Some examples of forgotten narratives include Zelenskyy leaving Kyiv after the invasion started, secret NATO base in Mariupol, Poles trying to blow up a chlorine tank, birds as bioweapons, combat mosquitos, the use of dirty bomb, and Ukrainian Satan worshipping.
9/23
Troll farms also often "borrow" ideas and narratives from conspiracy theorists. One example of this was the "bioweapons lab" theory started by a QAnon follower, Jacob Creech. The narrative was spread, along with the Kremlin,by people like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon.
10/23
There is also no commitment to any kind of consistency and these narratives can naturally be contradictory - as I mentioned, the goal is not to persuade but to confuse and overwhelm.
11/23
A lot of the "argumentation" from these trolls focuses on anecdotal evidence or faked sources. A good example of this are the "Ukrainian Nazis" replies that flood the discussion with anecdotal image collages of Ukrainians waving Nazi flags or having Nazi tattoos.
12/23
The firehose also often utilizes non-sourced and out-of-context materials. Using (fake) imagery is an effective way to invoke strong reactions and emotions. Sometimes Russia produces false flag videos, but have done them less after various videos were geolocated to Russia.
13/23
This strategy works extremely well in so-called low trust environments, meaning countries or societies where the trust against politicians, journalists and authorities is relatively low. Naturally, the effective use of this method degrades this trust even further.
14/23
The sheer number of messages and comments drown out any competing arguments or viewpoints, and this also often makes any kind of fact-checking obsolete - after the information has been debunked, the topic has already changed many, many times.
15/23
And this is exactly why #NAFO has been so efficient against this particular strategy: it counters the strategy with similar measures. High volume, nonsensical replies from braindead cartoon dogs...
16/23
...shuts down the firehose of falsehood extremely well, and as a bonus ridicules the main sources of pro-Russian narratives, including the country's ex-president, the embassy and diplomat accounts.
17/23
Like with most production, propaganda has been outsourced to cheaper sources. These days many of these troll farms have been moved from places like Russia and Macedonia into various African countries, including Nigeria and Ghana.
18/23
China has utilized the firehose in their own propaganda, and their most famous troll farm is the 50 Cent Army. The biggest difference between Russian and Chinese operations was that the Chinese focused on national networks,mostly neglecting the online world outside of China.19/23
Russia also focuses more on bashing and blaming others, whereas China focuses on praising the CCP. After realizing the success of Russia in their info ops, though, China has also started using more aggressive strategies against their rivals, especially against the US.
20/23
Based on BBC, Russian and Chinese propaganda accounts are "thriving" on Twitter after @elonmusk sacked the team that was countering them. Allegedly the current system relies fully on automated detection systems.
21/23
@DarrenLinvill, an associate professor from Clemson University said that one of these networks appears to originate from IRA. They have also identified troll farm from the opposite camp, with tweets supporting Ukraine and Alexei Navalny.
22/23
Before Musk took over the site, Twitter was relatively effective in removing troll farm accounts, but one can only assume that this is not the case anymore.
As is tradition, social media giants prioritize profits over safety.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce the Russian disinformation network “Doppelgänger”. Doppelgänger is an influence and hybrid operation spreading Kremlin propaganda via AI-generated fake news websites and social media sites, especially X.
1/20
Doppelgänger is a massive influence operation that was initially exposed back in 2022. Their modus operandi is to create near-identical copies of large, legitimate Western news outlets to spread anti-Ukraine, anti-Western and anti-NATO narratives.
2/20
The operation, overseen by Putin’s top aide Sergei Kiriyenko (who’s reportedly communicated with Elon), uses Russian firms like Social Design Agency (SDA) to create fake news sites that mimick legitimate media like The Washington Post, The Guardian, Bild and Fox News.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’m going to talk about Europe’s information defense against foreign influence operations & disinformation.
The EU can’t rely anymore on America’s help in geopolitical struggles, and it’s time we created a united front against information threats.
1/24
Recent news coming from the US should be the final wake-up call for European decision-makers. Recently, Trump’s rhetoric has been openly pro-Kremlin and both anti-Ukraine & anti-EU, and at the same time the US is dismantling all institutions fighting against disinformation.
2/24
So far, the Trump administration has put staffers working on disinformation as well as a team of election security advisers at the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) on administrative leave.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll discuss how Estonia deals with the Russian threat. Estonia’s Internal Security Service (KAPO) published their 2023-2024 annual review some time ago, and it’s packed with insights on Russian hybrid operations in the region.
1/17
Estonia is at the frontlines against Russia’s hybrid war, and they’ve been targeted by the Kremlin for decades. Russia’s main goal remains the same: undermine Estonia’s constitutional order. To do this, they use intimidation, propaganda & cyber warfare to stir unrest.
2/17
Like in all Baltic countries, one of their major tools is the manipulation of ethnic Russians in Estonia. The Kremlin pushes propaganda to create divisions, but recent surveys show integration is improving. The Kremlin is losing its grip.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I talk about populism. Populism includes a range of political stances with the focus on the idea of the “common people” in opposition to the “elites”. In recent decades, populism has been on the rise around the world,and especially in the US & Europe.
1/25
At its core, populism pits “the people” against “the elites.” It’s a political approach that claims to represent the common folk, often oversimplifying complex issues and tapping into frustrations. Populism can be left-wing, right-wing, or somewhere in between.
2/25
In the US and Canada during the 19th and early 20th century, populist sentiments often came from the small independent farmers, “the people”, who were opposing the bankers and politicians, or “the elites”. The People’s Party in the US was considered…
In today’s vatnik soup, I’ll discuss how Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania cut the cord on Russian energy, further reducing their reliance on the Kremlin.
At the same time, the Baltics set an example for EU countries like Slovakia & Hungary whose leadership still worships Putin.
1/24
Moscow has long used its vast natural gas reserves as a geopolitical weapon, manipulating energy supplies to keep neighbors obedient. They’ve used the “energy weapon” several times, with the most blatant cases of Kremlin blackmail coming of course from Ukraine.
2/24
Let’s rewind back to the 1990s: The USSR dissolved, but Russia inherited the gas reserves, pipelines, and Gazprom — its political weapon. Meanwhile, the Baltic states were politically free but economically tied to Russia, heavily reliant on Russian gas.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an Estonian politician, Jana Toom (@JanaToomEE). She’s best-known for promoting pro-Kremlin viewpoints both in domestic Estonian politics and in the European Parliament.
1/22
Toom’s mother, Margarita Chernogorova, studied law in Leningrad & worked for the Communist Party. She was also a confidant to the most notorious leader of the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic, Karl Vaino. One of Chernogorova’s tasks was to suppress the Singing Revolution.
2/22
During the early 90s Toom lived with her husband in Snezhinsk, Russia and returned to Estonia in 1994. Soon after, she joined the editorial board of Molodyož Estonii, a paper known for being a mouthpiece for the Leninist Communist Youth League during the Soviet era.