Thread by @betelgeuse1922

RUSSIA IS A CONVOLUTED MESS
the thread
For many Westerners, Russia looks either as a cunning Bond villain or as a gargantuan monolithic beast. It's none of these - just a bunch of idiots who don't know what to do. Let me paint a picture of Russia (Spring-Summer 2023).

The pinnacle of russian existence is perfectly pictured in this rhyme:
откуда дровишки > сарай разобрали > так он же железный > а нам приказали
where did you get the wood > we took the barn apart > but it's out of metal > who cares, we had the order

Here is your real-life example.
Order: People need to wear masks in the metro
Solution: Check if people wear masks when entering the metro.
Execution: Covid Hotbed 3000

Find the easiest solution even if it's impractical and dumb. Everything is done this way, varying from idiotically comedic to horrifyingly tragic cases. Take a look at the Bakhmut brute force strategy - follow the orders or die trying.

This approach only works when you have a proper direction. Go to the left, Ivan. Sir, yes, sir.
But if you ask Ivan to go to the left, but also go to the right, but also dance, but also smell funny... Ivan explodes, which I am perfectly fine with. And he really smells funny.

TASK: WE NEED TO WIN THE WAR, WHILE PREPARING FOR THE LOSS
I think even Ukraine doesn't have as much certainty in the success of the counter-offensive as Russia does. If you check Z-channels, it looks like Russia lost this battle 69 years ago, it's discussed nearly as a fact.

Imagine Leonidas addressing his spartans with a "We will fuck up" chant. Bad. But if you are unrealistically optimistic, it pisses Z-audience even more.
Solution: say everything at once. Propaganda was never that confusing before.

TASK: WE NEED TO MAKE THE MEGA DATABASE FOR CONSCRIPTION
Unique information is the reason for many government units to exist. Police has their base, customs have their base, everyone has a sort of a base. Now they need to give all their info to the military.

The unit that clicks the "conscripted" box becomes the king of the foodchain for the rest of the war. What's interesting is that recruitment offices were not ready for such an honour and... THEY DON'T WANT IT. Drafting business is better done in the shadows, you know.

Curated by FSB, this unifying DB will quickly turn into a fight of everyone against everyone and I am not even speaking about the lack of proper IT specialist to keep this base afloat. Ask russian police about the number of days, their DB worked without a major break.

SOLUTION: Do the DB and arrest everyone in the process
I am sure that this shit will work in some form but it will cause the biggest mess in history, because NO ONE WANTS THIS THING TO EXIST BUT EVERYONE WANTS THIS THING TO BE IN THEIR ARMS. Russia is a convoluted mess.

TASK: UKRAINE NEEDS TO LOOK EVIL BUT ALSO NOT POWERFUL
Here they found a solution. It's not Ukraine that kicks our asses, it's the whole NATO. But what's funny is that the major fuck-up's were caused by the most stupid solutions, that don't need NATO at all.

When a bomb explodes, when the border is breached, when drones fly around the country - how is it NATO-related? Right, it isn't, it's all Ukraine. But it's not just Ukraine. What the fuck is left in the heads of propaganda consumers? Porridge. Shit porridge.

TASK: WE NEED A WAR BUT ALSO TO GET A PLAUSIBLE ELECTION THAT WE WILL FAKE COMPLETELY SO WTF?
Solution: We will do stuff that didn't work before in a way worse situation and wait for a failure to bloom before doing what needs to be done (but late). I mean hiring contractors.

In a time frame of five hours, Prigozhin bragged that they hired 100 people from Yaroslavl, and then cried that they lost 100 people this day in Bakhmut. It looks like they know they will fail, but they need to fail to prove it's a failure. Russia is a convoluted mess.

TASK: WE NEED A PARADE WE DON'T NEED
Nobody wants a parade but Putin. So everything needs to be fine when it's not fine. Officials get creative for once, they run the faux parades of kindergarten kids or any other parade supplement that passes.

Imagine having this task list. Eww.
Forget about Russia having a plan or agenda. It's idiots under the reign of lunatics. But that is good news. Anything consistent will crush their back. So the more consistent our support of Ukraine is, the more absurd my next report will be.