Will Jennings Profile picture
May 5 5 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Labour has continued to make larger gains in areas with fewer university graduates, while the Conservatives are going back fastest in areas with more... #LocalElections2023 @SkyNews Image
@SkyNews This pattern maps onto the Brexit vote. Labour has enjoyed largest gains in wards that voted to Leave the EU in 2016, while the Conservatives have experienced biggest losses in areas that voted to Remain. Image
@SkyNews The Brexit realignment appears to be partially unwinding, while the Conservatives are not regaining ground with graduate, Remainers but instead continuing to lose support.
@SkyNews It's the same story with social class. The Conservatives are doing very badly in areas with fewest working class voters, while the Lib Dems are doing well in those areas. Labour is making gains more evenly across the board. Image
An update now we have results for nearly 600 wards. The pattern is still holding up. Image

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More from @drjennings

May 4
Will be crunching #LocalElections2023 numbers tonight into the small hours and then tomorrow... we'll be analysing data from thousands of wards. Look out for our @SkyNews data visualisations via @gurpreetnarwan @EdConwaySky as results come in.
@SkyNews @gurpreetnarwan @EdConwaySky If you want to remember what happened last year, read this post mortem by @DanielJDunford and me from 2022. news.sky.com/story/from-the…
@SkyNews @gurpreetnarwan @EdConwaySky @DanielJDunford And to get a sense of how much things have changed since 2021, read the data team's analysis after local elections two years ago. news.sky.com/story/election…
Read 6 tweets
May 2
Important analysis from @BethRigby ahead of the local elections - noting the historical pattern of swing back towards the government after the final local elections before a general election. Image
@BethRigby Of course, we may yet have a further round of local elections in May 2024 before the next general election. Also note that the smallest recoveries from local elections were experienced at what were widely considered to be 'change' elections - 1979 and 1997.
@BethRigby Looking at historical data on the 'national equivalent vote' back to 1973, there is a striking tendency for Labour to under-perform national polling in the locals. (Dotted lines here are +/- 5 per cent difference between the NEV and polls the month before.) Image
Read 6 tweets

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