Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
May 5 8 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I really recommend everyone further west in Europe to read this if you want to understand why Finland has been preparing for the worst (war) while hoping for the best (peaceful cooperation) vis-à-vis Russia.

And why Finns feel a strong “connection of destiny” with Ukrainians
Just yesterday I talked with a fellow Finn about how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year ripped open the trauma of our wars that are only 2 generations away. Finns REALLY just wanted to be over it and life to continue. But Russia didn’t let us.
We fought Russian imperialism 80 years ago and all of this is still extremely triggering. Imagine then how it is for our Baltic neighbours for whom it’s only been 30 years. And what really kills me is to know exactly what this is doing to Ukrainians.
I don’t have family in the border regions that were lost in our wars. But my grandfather fought in the Continuation War and Lapland War - like so many grandfathers. It was a weird experience last year to all of a sudden get so inexplicably triggered by this generational trauma
Growing up in the 90s & 00s, I never thought much about Russia or the eastern border (I didn’t do the military service). Finland was much more focused on the EU and that’s prob what Russia couldn’t stand. We don’t get to just ignore Russia, Putin has made sure of that
Neither Finns nor Estonians or others calling for maximum deterrent against Russian aggression are the warmongers here. All of us wished more than anything that Russia could just be a peaceful, normal neighbour with which you can have peaceful, normal neighbourly relations
The problem is that if something happens every couple generations that confirms the old trauma, you never get over it as a nation. Finns still remember the Russian oppression called “Great Wrath” in early 1700s and Russification periods in late 1800s/ early 1900s.
It’s just really depressing that now we’re again at the beginning of this generational cycle. And in Ukraine none of this will be forgotten. The most important thing for Ukraine’s supporters is not to demand Ukrainians to forgive and forget - it’ll be impossible for a long time.

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More from @minna_alander

May 3
President Zelenskyy is on a surprise visit in Finland today !

Later in the afternoon, all Nordic Prime Ministers are coming to Helsinki at President Niinistö’s invitation.

🇺🇦🤝🇫🇮🇸🇪🇳🇴🇩🇰🇮🇸
Shitty video via @hsfi
Press conference now: Zelenskyy and Niinistö discussed the 15th military aid package from Finland that is now in the works and already started preparations for the 16th. 🇫🇮🤝🇺🇦
Read 5 tweets
May 3
Germany’s Bundeswehr has launched a new ad campaign, saying “what counts when we need to show strength again”.

The alarmed reactions and pushback it has gotten is indicative of how long the mental Zeitenwende will take Image
(The ad in question in the middle).

Many Germans are very uncomfortable with the idea of a stronger military and esp the “again” (as opposed to “never again”) has triggered the memory of the nazi Wehrmacht instead of the strong Bundeswehr during the Cold War.
It’s important for Germany’s leadership to communicate wisely about the need for stronger military capability. I’d suggest to frame it very strongly around Germany’s contribution to European security and as an insurance (Germans love insurances)
Read 8 tweets
May 2
Since Pistorius took over as 🇩🇪 defence minister in January, Germany’s military Zeitenwende has been gaining momentum.

@nupinytt colleagues Eskil Jacobsen, @OyvindSvendsen & I took stock of Germany’s progress so far. Some insights:
nupi.no/content/downlo… Image
The biggest challenge for 🇩🇪 military Zeitenwende is the Zeit part.

The longer it takes to allocate money, the more inflation & interest will eat away from the €100 bn Sondervermögen. As a result, some of the initially very ambitious procurement plans had to be adapted already
Instead of improvement, the annual report of the parliamentary commissioner for Bundeswehr found that material conditions have become more dire as 🇩🇪 has supported 🇺🇦 with significant amounts of weapons but hasn’t been able to replenish stocks fast enough.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 27
The recent series of leaked Russian strategy documents regarding political manipulation of Germany, destabilising the Baltic States, and using climate cooperation/ academia as tools of Russian interests are all well-known parts of Kremlin’s playbook for psychological and info ops
1. Use pre-existing divisions and/ or sympathetic coalitions in the target society

Germany’s far left and far right already found each other during the pandemic, when neo-nazis and antivaxx hippies were protesting side by side.

washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/…
In a similar vein, Putin has known precisely how well reflexive control exerted through nuclear threats will work on the German society. Germany would’ve been the main theatre in a nuclear war during the Cold War and Putin knows how deeply engrained that collective trauma is
Read 9 tweets
Apr 27
This will make some interesting coalition negotiations, as the Finns Party and the Swedish People’s Party are pretty much opposites in many questions

But it would guarantee the good old restricting impact of Finnish coalition politics on any too extreme positions
But the National Coalition Party, which won the electrons and is to have the PM post, is also struggling to find common ground with the Finns Party on (white collar) immigration, EU and climate (the Finns Party wants less of all 3).
In any case, even without Sanna Marin the “precipitous descent into authoritarian prospects” prophesied here in the Guardian looks very unlikely.

Finland lost Marin’s boosting impact to its international image though, which was probably never properly understood in Finland
Read 4 tweets
Apr 26
Nimenomaan tällaiseen informaatio- ja psykologiseen vaikuttamiseen kannattaa varautua Suomessa tulevaisuudessa. Esim. Virossa ja Liettuassa tyypillisiä Venäjän kampanjoita on olleet yritykset diskreditoida NATO:n läsnäolo ja joukot maissa.
Lisäksi Venäjän kampanjoissa on myös kansainvälinen ulottuvuus: Baltian maiden esittäminen huonossa valossa niiden tärkeimmissä NATO-kumppanimaissa. Myös Suomesta ulkomailla liikkuvien narratiivien monitoroimiseen pitää alkaa satsata ei vain Suomi-brändi, vaan myös turpo mielessä
Suomen konsensuskulttuuri kansallisen turvallisuuden kysymyksissä voi tehdä informaatiovaikuttamisesta meidän ”kotikentällä” haastavaa, varsinkin nyt kun NATO:n kannatus on niin vahvaa. Mutta täytyy pysyä valppaana tämän suhteen ja pitää mielessä kv-ulottuvuuden vaikutukset myös.
Read 4 tweets

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