With only 4 GWs left of the season, it’s time for FPL managers to take a look at their current overall rank and compare it to their rank target. How far away from your target you are will determine how much risk is worth taking in the final weeks of the season.
Even though the template can seem strong it can’t cover every single good pick, which means that there will be high-upside players with low ownership there for the taking.
Now, bringing in an objectively slightly worse asset isn’t recommended, in most cases, but when you’re…
…chasing rank it can actually be worth going for lower-owned players just because of their ownership, and simply hope to get lucky. Of course, the differentials still have to be players that you believe will do well, & thankfully, there are a few opportunities to punt coming up.
Differentials can be picks that you want to hold for the rest of the season, or, if the rest of your team is well set up, you can spend transfers on one-week punts and try to maximize points from targeting good fixtures.
Let’s move on and look at some concrete options ⤵️
1️⃣ Phil Foden (8.0m) – MCI
Time to buy: GW 35
This recommendation is conditional because for me a punt on Phil Foden is only viable if we get early team news before the deadline saying that he starts. I do believe that he’ll get a start, but confirmation would be very useful.
Leeds (H) in GW 35 is a terrific fixture and a game where City could end up scoring 5 or 6 goals. Therefore, buying a City midfielder like Foden makes a lot of sense, especially for those owning Arsenal mids for a tough away game vs Newcastle. It’s a move with a very high upside.
2️⃣ Luis Diaz (7.8) – Liverpool
Time to buy: GW 35
If we don’t get any early Man City team news and people are still looking for a midfield punt, Luis Diaz could be a nice option. He’s only just returned from injury and has played 62 and 65 mins respectively in his last 2 games.
His xMins for the Brentford game are probably about 60 (not great), and if Jota is still out Diaz could start again and given his extremely low ownership, he’d be a tempting differential. The xMins situation needs monitoring and updating after press conferences/leaks etc.
3️⃣Callum Wilson (7.0) – Newcastle
Time to buy: GW 36
Most FPL managers will be looking to bring in & potentially captain a Newcastle striker in GW 36, and my current assumption is that most will opt for Alexander Isak as their pick. Eddie Howe has rotated strikers in midweek…
…games before, so it’s not an unreasonable prediction that Wilson and Isak each get 1 start and 1 cameo in the DGW. Wilson actually might have a higher upside than Isak when he plays (5 goals in his last 155 mins), so he’s certainly a differential to consider that week.
4️⃣ Heung Min Son (11.5) – Spurs
Time to buy: GW 38
My final differential recommendation is one to watch for GW 38. All I’m saying is, be prepared for the fact that Spurs will go up against a Leeds side in GW 38 that could already be relegated and thus have nothing to play for.
I know Son hasn’t exactly lived up to the expectations this season, but he’s still a player very much capable of doing great things, he has that hattrick potential, and with the right fixture he can be one of the most explosive differentials in the game. One to watch for GW 38.
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Nobody missed the incredible KDB performance vs Arsenal, with the midfielder recording 2G, 1A and 19 points haul. He’s now up to 25 attacking returns this season but is still a differential (due to his price tag).
With 2 excellent fixtures in GW 34 and a decent enough chance of KDB starting both games, he’s an incredible differential pick at the moment. His ceiling is extremely high and he’s reliable as well. If you can afford him, KDB is the differential to go for if you’re chasing.
Arsenal assets have been template picks all season, but with a perhaps slight drop off in performance recently, and tough fixtures ahead, is it worth considering selling some of them?
Before we begin, let’s take a look at some stats from Arsenal’s last 6 PL games.
🛡️Arsenal defence (last 6 PL games):
Goals conceded: 9 – (1.5 per game)
xG conceded: 9.35 – (1.56 per game)
📊Martinelli vs Odegaard vs Saka (last 6 PL games):
Goals: 4 vs 3 vs 3
Assists: 3 vs 1 vs 2
xG: 2.0 vs 1.6 vs 1.6
xGI: 4.2 vs 2.7 vs 2.9
FPL points: 47 vs 34 vs 36