1. Russians are once again attempting to frighten residents in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia on the left bank of Kakhovka Reservoir into evacuating. This is part of a larger information operation ahead of the Ukrainian offensive. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2. TASS reported (some western media repeated) that the Kakhovka HPP dam could burst and this would flood Zaporizhzhia NPP and surrounding communities. This is pure rubbish. If the Kakhovka HPP dam burst, Kakhovka Reservoir would dramatically LOWER as these location are upstream.
3. Russian propaganda uses facts, often reported by the west, with other false statements to create an environment of fear and uncertainty. It is TRUE Kakhovka Reservoir is at record high levels and the K-HPP controls water discharge for K reservoir.
4. Russians control Kakhovka HPP including the lock, 6 turbines and 28 sluice gates. If RF wants to discharge water & lower the K reservoir, RF has the ability to do so. Cynical Russians claim concern for civilians but shell trains, shopping centers & apartments killing hundreds.
5. Russians are spreading fear & compelling evacuations in occupied territories. Where have we seen this before? Just six months ago, RF used the same info ops playbook in advance of their "strategic repositioning" (retreat) from Kherson right bank.
6. Also part of the RF playbook: Biblical flooding and nuclear fear mongering. I'm waiting for an encore of the dramatic Dnipro flooding "movie" Russian propagandists created and disseminated in October 2022. High theater. t.me/s/yurasumy/5670 en.topwar.ru/203660-podryv-…
7. Russia is preparing for a retreat by compelling civilians to flee occupied territories. We've seen this before. Please check facts, don't quote directly from TASS @genevieve_holl@HamishDBG@djknowles22. /end
7.1 I'll be adding additional Ruschist "evacuation", aka human shield, mass kidnapping, and related genocide of the Ukrainian population from occupied Ukrainian territories on this thread.
7.6 @iaeaorg issues statement regarding Z-NPP safety concerns from Ruschist militarization of the NPP:
- situation unpredictable and potentially dangerous
- evacuations in nearby communities remove staff for NPP operation
1. Ruschist operation of Kakhovka HPP (K-HPP) dam has been reckless. Kakhovka Reservoir (KR) water level has alternated from record low to record high in just 3 months. Loop (6 FEB-6 MAY 2023) shows sand bars receding with rising KR water. #NAFOWeather🧵
2. These images are of the K-HPP from Left: 6 FEB, and Right: 6 MAY 2023 (enhanced from data included in loop).
3. North Crimean Canal intake, Left 20 FEB 2023 Right 6 May 2023: Latest image show water gushing through NCC intake gate at Tavrisk as record KR level is pushing water through gravity fed NCC at high rates.
2. Soil moisture is one element of the water balance / hydrologic cycle which includes precipitation, terrain, vegetation state, and atmosphere (temperature, humidity, winds, sunshine/solar radiation).
3. Rate of soil moisture changes over time:
Over Weeks to Months - Controlled by vegetation growth
Cite: Reference evapotranspiration in water requirement: Theory, concepts, and methods of estimation, Handbook of Hydroinformatics, 2023 sciencedirect.com/book/978012821…
1/ It has been almost a month since I provided a #MudSeason trafficability forecast. My assumption of a "normal" spring rainfall & improving trafficability were way too optimistic as it has rained Every. Damn. Day. since late March 2023. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ #BLUF The trafficability forecast (below) is based on current and predicted rainfall which are well above normal for near the Line of Conflict (LoC). In general, trafficability is delayed about 1 month versus normal.
3/ Some input on #MudSeason from authoritative sources: @DefenceHQ "severe mud is highly likely slowing operations vor both sides" but "conditions can be expected to improve in the coming weeks".
3/ For Donetsk Oblast, area-wide precipitation received in the past 10 days was about 35 mm. This puts the most recent 30 day period +16% above normal, but the past 90 days are -16% below normal. Thus, recently precipitation was a nice catch-up from winter precipitation deficit.
1/ Heavy Precipitation/Snowfall *ALERT*
Wednesday Evening (MAR 29) to Friday Morning (MAR 31)
* Heavy snow likely in Luhansk and Donetsk
* Drone operations will be severely restricted
* Trafficability will be severely restricted
* Rising water will make creeks dangerous to ford
2/ 10 Day Forecast of weather for Bakhmut and Kreminna shows rate of precipitation, snowfall, & snow depth Thursday-Friday. Additional rainfall next WED. Most snow will melt by Saturday. Melting snow will make trafficability extremely difficult & rising creeks impassable.
3/ Comparing major global weather models, but agree on extreme precipitation potential next 72 hours (50-75 mm), but position of maxima varies by about 100 km which is relevant to the line of conflict.
13.2/ Temperature and precipitation along the Line of Conflict (LoC) at control points. April and May have the greatest temperature increase but lower precip from winter and summer seasons = increasing evapotranspiration (ET) (e.g., soil water loss). Source: @meteoblue
13.3/ Ukraine spring season (MAM) maps show northwest to southeast gradient of lower to higher temperatures & higher to lower precipitation indicating lower to higher ET/water loss. Source: University of East Anglia crudata.uea.ac.uk/~timo/climgen/…