Thread by @Jack_Mrgln

Prigozhin announces that Wagner is withdrawing from future involvement in Ukraine (with some caveats), takes credit accomplishing all objectives in Bakhmut, blames MoD for further failures, says Wagner leadership would never join MOD.

1/

While he says he isnt interested in being lauded as conqueror of Bakhmut, only “ambitions to benefit our people and our state.” He goes on to say that main objective was to expend UA forces and clear path west towards Kramatork etc which he says they accomplished.

2/

He says Wagner will now retrain in Russia - confusing phrasing as he says they will “remain until threat is gone,” and then says “in the event of a threat, Wagner will stand up for the motherland.” I take this to mean he’s saying they are effectively in reserve.

3/

He repeats what he has previously stated, that Wagner soldiers and commanders would rather retire than go to MoD. This is definitely true for some but not all. And doesn’t really matter if you’re conscripted.

4/

He goes on to give an excruciatingly detailed breakdown of shell issues. He’s trying to draw a direct line between the “artificial shell hunger” and Wagner losses, and ascribe prior knowledge of the “less shells, more dead Russian men” to Shoigu/Gerasimov.

/5

Interestingly, he more clearly claims that Mizintsev was fired from his post for helping Wagner get ammo. He has alluded to this and some have suspected it, but now he is saying that Mizintsev and “foreign partners” were helping.

6/

That would support an argument that Mizintsev going to Wagner is part of the infighting.

7/

He includes familiar complaints about MoD denying medals for bravery to Wagner fighters, communications w Troshev and other intermediaries being cut, also says that MoD wouldn’t service flights to rotate Wagnerites from Africa or to fly ammo in.

8/

All of that is a friendly reminder that Wagner doesn’t own it’s own logistics, which has always been a huge vulnerability and why I’ve been skeptical of the “coup” forecasts. Wagner uses MoD planes, MoD bases, MoD arms and munitions.

9/

All of that is also a scratch against claims they are a true PMC. PMCs are supposed to alleviate logistics dilemmas! Wagner has to some degree in other theaters, but it really seems like they piggybacked in UA.

/10

Some notes from the ammo rant:

- Wagner expends 6k shells per day (he uses back of the envelope math to say Russian doctrine would call for 72k per day for UA positions and another 35k for “NATO mechanized division.” Not so sure, but hey, I’m not an expert on arty)

11/

- Wagner asked for 6k per day, MoD signed for 600 to 1k, others in MoD helped to get that number to more like 1.5 to 2k.
- goes on to do some more math based (apparently) on Russian military doctrine which all ends up being very complimentary to WG

12/

(Basically claims that according to MoD expectations, they would have been wiped out more than once.)

- claims that Russian shell production is sufficient to arm 5 formations like Wagner. First, I don’t know if this is true, and second, what about the actual military?

/13

- he concedes that about a third of the issue (more creative math) was due to actual shortages, the rest, artificial
- closes by saying that with Wagner out, it’s good that other units will have more shells.

/14

Tl;dr, barring dramatic revelations, it looks like Shoigu has won this one, at least for the time being. Long term costs for MoD include their messaging and ability to leverage Wagner for informal mobilization. Prigozhin gets to claim he salvaged victory from the jaws of defeat.