Thread by @MattooShashank

India is making a major geopolitical gambit to connect the Middle-East

If India's plan succeeds, it may unleash billions in trade

It would help counter China's influence & secure 🇮🇳's reputation as a player in the region

🧵on the economic master plan you need to know about

Last week, Axios reported that the National Security Advisers of India, America, Saudi Arabia & the UAE were set to hold a key meeting

The four countries are planning a major connectivity initiative to link countries in the Middle-East

Here's how

axios.com/2023/05/06/sau…

Axios reported that the four countries want to build railway networks to link Gulf (eg: UAE, Saudi) & Levant (eg: Lebanon, Syria) countries

These rail networks will then extend to sea ports which will boost economic linkages with 🇮🇳

The idea initially came from Israel

India also brings its "railway diplomacy"

🇮🇳 currently executing railway projects in Mozambique, Mauritius etc

RITES, an 🇮🇳 public sector firm, has worked in 55 countries including in Middle-East

🇮🇳 is among few countries w. the expertise to build rail infra abroad

This ambitious project matters for three reasons:

1⃣. China

This 4-nation infra alliance will help counter China’s infrastructure building efforts in the region

From 2005 to 2022, 🇨🇳 investments and contracts in the Middle East and North Africa have totaled 273 billion dollars

A big chunk of those investments have been in infrastructure

Major regional powers have signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is a trillion dollar project to build infra & link Middle East to 🇨🇳’s economy

🇮🇳&🇺🇸 have seen 🇨🇳's increasing influence w. concern

2⃣. Reputation

India’s diplomatic reputation would be enhanced by the successful execution of such an ambitious project

The Middle-East is in search of new diplomatic partners as it looks to move away from its traditional reliance on America

Closer ties w. 🇨🇳 are an example

For example, China brokered a normalisation agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March

This project could be a key opportunity for New Delhi to establish itself as a serious power in the region

It also complements existing partnerships like I2U2 w. Israel, US & UAE

3⃣. Trade

🇮🇳 has wanted to improve connectivity with West Asia

With overland routes running through Pakistan and Afghanistan, maritime connectivity remains the only viable option available to New Delhi

This connectivity will create new avenues for India’s economic growth.

The Middle-East is also going through a strategic shift

Major powers are settling long standing conflicts in order to build peace & economic ties

Even Iran & Saudi Arabia are now talking trade

This connectivity plan may be a good way to latch onto to regional aspirations

However, some caution

While the project is exciting and ambitious, the exact details are sketchy

Grand connectivity ambitions across borders, particularly in a complicated region like West Asia, can run into political trouble

The exact scale of the project will be important

Building a trans-national railway project, even with US & Emirati resources, may be too difficult

🇮🇳's recent experiences in Mauritius (metro project) are not the same as a grand pan-regional initiative

Major trans-national projects, like INSTC, have largely disappointed

The timelines would also matter

More than 20 yrs after International North South Transport Corridor was unveiled, key gaps remain

Involving other infra players like Japan may be necessary

Bottom Line: This new quad-railway project is immensely exciting but key questions remain

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