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David Helms Profile picture
@davidhelms570
May 8 • 3 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. Soil Moisture #MudSeason Update: 8 May 2023
#NAFOWeather 🧵
The past 7 days have been dry (yay!) along the Line of Conflict (LoC) after April's significant rainfall. Image
2. ECMWF model rainfall forecast for the next week shows 5-20 mm totals with largest rain amounts in southeast Donetsk and Luhansk. While ECMWF has been annoying me with alternating high/low rain predictions, it seems to be consistent the past couple model runs. Image
3. Impact to Soil Moisture and Trafficability: As you might expect, greatest trafficability degradation is in Donetsk/Luhansk while the impact of rainfall to trafficability is minimal in the south (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia). The longer term drying trend resumes after May 11. /end ImageImage

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More from @davidhelms570

David Helms Profile picture
May 8
#KakhovkaReservoir #KakhovkaHPP Status Follow-up: 8 May 2023. Upon further analysis of 6 May 2023 Sentinel-2 imagery and consultation with @tom_bike @Gergyl & @BruckenRuski, we believe the #KakhovkaReservoir water is "over-topping" the #KakhovkaHPP dam. /1
Time-series loop from 27 March 2023 to 6 May 2023. Note the "brightening" downstream (left side) of the #KakhovkaHPP sluice gates last frame in loop which is water flowing over the top of the dam. Over-topping is particularly evident on the 3 northern most sluice gates. /2
Why is this happening? Recall the Russian occupiers blew up the road and rail deck above the #KakhovkaHPP dam sluice gates on 10 NOV 2022 as part of the RF retreat ("strategic repositioning") from the Dnipro right bank. /3
Read 12 tweets
David Helms Profile picture
May 7
1. Ruschist operation of Kakhovka HPP (K-HPP) dam has been reckless. Kakhovka Reservoir (KR) water level has alternated from record low to record high in just 3 months. Loop (6 FEB-6 MAY 2023) shows sand bars receding with rising KR water. #NAFOWeather🧵
2. These images are of the K-HPP from Left: 6 FEB, and Right: 6 MAY 2023 (enhanced from data included in loop). ImageImage
3. North Crimean Canal intake, Left 20 FEB 2023 Right 6 May 2023: Latest image show water gushing through NCC intake gate at Tavrisk as record KR level is pushing water through gravity fed NCC at high rates. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
David Helms Profile picture
May 6
1. Russians are once again attempting to frighten residents in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia on the left bank of Kakhovka Reservoir into evacuating. This is part of a larger information operation ahead of the Ukrainian offensive. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2. TASS reported (some western media repeated) that the Kakhovka HPP dam could burst and this would flood Zaporizhzhia NPP and surrounding communities. This is pure rubbish. If the Kakhovka HPP dam burst, Kakhovka Reservoir would dramatically LOWER as these location are upstream. ImageImage
3. Russian propaganda uses facts, often reported by the west, with other false statements to create an environment of fear and uncertainty. It is TRUE Kakhovka Reservoir is at record high levels and the K-HPP controls water discharge for K reservoir.
Read 15 tweets
David Helms Profile picture
May 5
1. A backgrounder on how soil moisture changes over time. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2. Soil moisture is one element of the water balance / hydrologic cycle which includes precipitation, terrain, vegetation state, and atmosphere (temperature, humidity, winds, sunshine/solar radiation). Image
3. Rate of soil moisture changes over time:
Over Weeks to Months - Controlled by vegetation growth
Cite: Reference evapotranspiration in water requirement: Theory, concepts, and methods of estimation, Handbook of Hydroinformatics, 2023
sciencedirect.com/book/978012821… Image
Read 13 tweets
David Helms Profile picture
Apr 25
1/ It has been almost a month since I provided a #MudSeason trafficability forecast. My assumption of a "normal" spring rainfall & improving trafficability were way too optimistic as it has rained Every. Damn. Day. since late March 2023. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ #BLUF The trafficability forecast (below) is based on current and predicted rainfall which are well above normal for near the Line of Conflict (LoC). In general, trafficability is delayed about 1 month versus normal. Image
3/ Some input on #MudSeason from authoritative sources: @DefenceHQ "severe mud is highly likely slowing operations vor both sides" but "conditions can be expected to improve in the coming weeks".
Read 17 tweets
David Helms Profile picture
Apr 4
1/ Some thoughts on the flooding in Kramatorsk today (4 April 2023).
2/ To be sure, it snowed in Kramatorsk recently, probably 20-25 cm on March 30-31.
3/ For Donetsk Oblast, area-wide precipitation received in the past 10 days was about 35 mm. This puts the most recent 30 day period +16% above normal, but the past 90 days are -16% below normal. Thus, recently precipitation was a nice catch-up from winter precipitation deficit.
Read 6 tweets

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