Thread by @tobiasroemer

1/ 🚨New pre-print online!🚨"School Shootings Increase NRA Donations" explores how the pro-gun political right in the US counter-mobilizes after school shootings. I provide causal estimates for substantive and lasting increases in donations to the NRA. osf.io/preprints/soca…🧵👇

2/ The US has experienced a tragic increase in school and mass shootings. Most studies focus on effects on support for gun regulations and voting. To understand (the absence of) changes in gun regulation, we must consider the full range of political.

3/ Gun owners are a highly active political constituency. Yet, we lack systematic quantitative evidence on how their participation changes after school shootings amid threats of gun regulation.

4/ In this paper, I use individual-level donation data from the FEC (1988-2022) with geocoded school shooting data to examine county-level donation responses. Using a staggered diff-in-diff, I find NRA-PVF donations increase by ~30% and remain elevated for multiple years.

5/ I interpret these findings as evidence for pro-gun counter-mobilization in response to intensified gun regulation discourse. This study adds to our understanding of how gun violence can drive participation and the complexities for gun control legislation.

6/ Is this part of a general political activation caused by school shootings? To explore this possibility, I conduct placebo tests using donations to reproductive rights PACs, finding null effects on both sides.

7/ In the appendix, I show that the central findings of this study are robust to (a) alternative definitions of treatment, (b) stricter demands for inclusion in the control group, and (c) exclusion of any individual state/event.

8/ For a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between school shootings, NRA donations, and the dynamics of political mobilization in the context of gun policy, make sure to read the pre-print. 🔗osf.io/preprints/soca… #GunControl
#NRA #SchoolShootings

9/ Tl;dr is in the title "School Shootings Increase NRA
Donations"

[Tagging a few people who might be interested in this: @LauraGarciaMo @M_J_Lacombe
@MarkRJoslyn1 @KAGoss @joncrogowski @jschildkraut80 @anamarjona @JohnHolbein1 @tkhartman @Politics_Oxford @NuffieldLibrary]