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The russians are holding about 800km of front in Ukraine. And Ukraine is about to commit the equivalent of 6-8 mechanized divisions to strike at just one point of that line and the russians don't know where.
To be able to defeat the Ukrainian offensive before a breakthrough
5/n
To be able to defeat the Ukrainian offensive before a breakthrough
5/n
the russians would need something like the 54,000 troops per 30km of front... for the entire 800 km of front inside Ukraine this would be 1,440,000 troops.
But let us just focus on the frontline from the Dnipro river to Donetsk city, as
6/n
But let us just focus on the frontline from the Dnipro river to Donetsk city, as
6/n
Ukraine is most likely to attack in this sector: a roughly estimated 300km of front... which would require russia to deploy 540,000 troops to defend it. And this does not include a maneuver reserve.
How many troops does russia actually have in the South? An estimated 90,000
7/n
How many troops does russia actually have in the South? An estimated 90,000
7/n
or about 300 men per km of front, which equals what the NATO country's military assumes is needed to just man a first trench line.
Supposedly russia has something between 300,000 to 360,000 troops in Ukraine (I believe it's less than that) & even if the russians commit most
8/n
Supposedly russia has something between 300,000 to 360,000 troops in Ukraine (I believe it's less than that) & even if the russians commit most
8/n
of their units to likely attack points they don't have enough forces to stop a Ukrainian attack: neither in men, nor in materiel.
The key for Ukraine is to keep its point of attack secret until the last moment. Once committed Ukrainian forces will break through the thinly
9/n
The key for Ukraine is to keep its point of attack secret until the last moment. Once committed Ukrainian forces will break through the thinly
9/n
manned russian lines and whatever maneuver reserve the russians can muster in that area will find itself under incessant artillery and GMLRS fire while trying to move into position for a counterattack.
The same will happen to whatever forces russia will pull out of the front
10/n
The same will happen to whatever forces russia will pull out of the front
10/n
elsewhere and try to move towards the Ukrainian spearheads.
russia doesn't have the forces to defend the front it is trying to hold; and russia doesn't have the transport capabilities nor the air defense assets to move its few reserve forces to meet a Ukrainian breakthrough.
11/n
russia doesn't have the forces to defend the front it is trying to hold; and russia doesn't have the transport capabilities nor the air defense assets to move its few reserve forces to meet a Ukrainian breakthrough.
11/n
Furthemore Ukrainian deception, feints, and diversionary attacks will make sure that russia will have its reserve forces far away from the actual point of attack.
putin will throw everything he has at the Ukrainian offensive and it will be a bloody and brutal battle, but
12/n
putin will throw everything he has at the Ukrainian offensive and it will be a bloody and brutal battle, but
12/n
also a battle, which russia can't win. They burned away the men and materiel to withstand a Ukrainian offensive in their futile attempts to take Bakhmut.
Last but not least: right now russia has an estimated 10,000 troops in Northern Crimea: 5 per km front.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
13/end
Last but not least: right now russia has an estimated 10,000 troops in Northern Crimea: 5 per km front.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
13/end
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