Oliver Alexander Profile picture
May 9, 2023 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
🧵Russian May 9th Parade 2023 vehicle composition thread. Now we finally get to compare this year's parade to the previous years'.

This year I have not seen an official lineup released for the first time.

Last year 131 vehicles took part, down from over 200 the previous years ImageImageImage
I am expecting under 100 vehicles, with a distinct lack of MBTs compared to other years. Overall numbers will be pumped up by an increase in Tigr-Ms and similar.
First we have to get wait for the troops to leave Red Square before the vehicles come through. Image
As per tradition, the parade opens with WW2 era T-34-85s.

This year it is again just a single T-34-85. Image
This is immediately followed by 7 Tigr-Ms

(Total Vehicle Count: 8) Image
Getting an accurate count of the next set of vehicles was hard due to camera angles changing, but there are 6 VPK-Urals

(Total Vehicle Count: 14) Image
These were followed by 10 Remdiesel Z-STS Akhmat MRAPs which are only used by Chechen forces.

(Total Vehicle Count: 24) ImageImageImage
Immediately followed by 6 Iskander-M lead by a BTR-82A meaning we skipped the entirety of the IFV and MBT section from last year

(Total Vehicle Count: 31) ImageImage
Followed by 6 S-400 TELs lead by a BTR-82A skipping the short range air defense and entire VDV section from last year.

(Total Vehicle Count: 38) ImageImage
The parade then skipped right to the end with the 3 RS-24 Yars lead by a BTR-82A and flanked by 6 Tigr-Ms. This skipped their usual display of their unmanned ground vehicles. (Total Vehicle Count: 48) ImageImage
Finally the 3 VPK-7829 Bumerang IFVs closed off the parade. (FINAL VEHICLE COUNT: 51) ImageImage
The flyover is expectedly cancelled. As no rehearsals had taken place, this was a guarantee.

Since the invasion the amount of vehicles in the annual parade has plummeted into a pitiful display:
2021: 197
2022: 131
2023: 51
No reason for Ukraine to do anything at the parade. The Russian military is perfectly capable of embarrassing itself.

I am amazed they couldn't even drag one of the T-14s to the parade.
To even get to 51 vehicles, the Russian military had to "borrow" 10 Remdiesel Ahmat Z-STS from Ramzan Kadyrov.
Now we know why they did not release a line up ahead of time.
Putin when the drone attack on the Kremlin wasn't enough to get this shitshow cancelled and spare him the embarrassment.
Image

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Dec 25, 2024
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Here one can see the difference between the port and starboard side of the aircraft’s vertical stabilizer. Image
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Given cargo it carried, this is in fact even worse for Russia than if it had been heading to Tartus.
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On the 12th within 2 hours of each other, the Ursa Major left St. Peterburg for Vladivostok and the Sparta left Baltiysk for Port Said, Egypt.

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Empty pistol with no magazine in it. Image
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The weapon can’t fire live rounds with that bolt carrier. Image
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As can be seen from this video, Dali starts billowing dark smoke from its funnel just prior to the turn that sets it on a course with the pillar.

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Dali starts billowing smoke at 01:25:39 EDT and then loses power for 30 seconds at 01:26:37. This is the exact point when the ship begins to alter course towards the bridge pillar.
Image
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The vessel only drifted about 75 meters south west of where it should have passed under the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

It appears very likely that a malfunction on the vessel caused it to briefly lose power, which caused it to drift slightly off course impacting the bridge.
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