🧵Russian May 9th Parade 2023 vehicle composition thread. Now we finally get to compare this year's parade to the previous years'.
This year I have not seen an official lineup released for the first time.
Last year 131 vehicles took part, down from over 200 the previous years
I am expecting under 100 vehicles, with a distinct lack of MBTs compared to other years. Overall numbers will be pumped up by an increase in Tigr-Ms and similar.
First we have to get wait for the troops to leave Red Square before the vehicles come through.
As per tradition, the parade opens with WW2 era T-34-85s.
This year it is again just a single T-34-85.
This is immediately followed by 7 Tigr-Ms
(Total Vehicle Count: 8)
Getting an accurate count of the next set of vehicles was hard due to camera angles changing, but there are 6 VPK-Urals
(Total Vehicle Count: 14)
These were followed by 10 Remdiesel Z-STS Akhmat MRAPs which are only used by Chechen forces.
(Total Vehicle Count: 24)
Immediately followed by 6 Iskander-M lead by a BTR-82A meaning we skipped the entirety of the IFV and MBT section from last year
(Total Vehicle Count: 31)
Followed by 6 S-400 TELs lead by a BTR-82A skipping the short range air defense and entire VDV section from last year.
(Total Vehicle Count: 38)
The parade then skipped right to the end with the 3 RS-24 Yars lead by a BTR-82A and flanked by 6 Tigr-Ms. This skipped their usual display of their unmanned ground vehicles. (Total Vehicle Count: 48)
Finally the 3 VPK-7829 Bumerang IFVs closed off the parade. (FINAL VEHICLE COUNT: 51)
The flyover is expectedly cancelled. As no rehearsals had taken place, this was a guarantee.
Since the invasion the amount of vehicles in the annual parade has plummeted into a pitiful display:
2021: 197
2022: 131
2023: 51
No reason for Ukraine to do anything at the parade. The Russian military is perfectly capable of embarrassing itself.
I am amazed they couldn't even drag one of the T-14s to the parade.
To even get to 51 vehicles, the Russian military had to "borrow" 10 Remdiesel Ahmat Z-STS from Ramzan Kadyrov.
Now we know why they did not release a line up ahead of time.
Putin when the drone attack on the Kremlin wasn't enough to get this shitshow cancelled and spare him the embarrassment.
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Elvira Nabiullina is by far the most competent person in the Russian government and has almost single-handedly managed to keep the Russian economy afloat for the past year despite increasing pressure from above to change key policies.
She is however rapidly running out of black magic and the creative accounting required to continue her success. With Israel/Iran not causing the expected oil price surge, the record deficit is increasing and the methods of financing it are dwindling.
OFZs are being sold at record levels to state owned banks, but the high interest rate means the income is only just enough to cover the payments due on last year’s bonds.
The NWF’s liquid assets dipped below the government deficit last month further adding to the headaches.
Summary of the significant evidence that the B-2s currently airborne are a strike package heading directly for Iran:
1. Immediate refuelling after departing from Whiteman Air Force Base indicates that the aircraft are carry close to their maximum payload.
If not an immediate strike, it is highly likely that the ordnance would have be pre-positioned at Guam or Diego Garcia with C-5 or C-17 transport aircraft in order to save the logistical headache of the additional aerial refueling and airframe stress.
2. If the B-2s continue onward to Iran they will arrive on target a few hours prior to opening of the Futures market at 6PM ET Sunday. This will give the Trump administration time to host a press briefing to calm the markets before they open.
All the videos of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight showing the damage show holes in the wreckage have entry holes on the port side and exit holes on the starboard side, likely with a slight angle from below.
Here one can see the difference between the port and starboard side of the aircraft’s vertical stabilizer.
Visible damage to the port side flap hinge fairing prior to the crash.
🧵The Ursa Major was heading to Vladivostok and not en route to aid in the evacuation of Tartus.
Given cargo it carried, this is in fact even worse for Russia than if it had been heading to Tartus.
The Ursa was carrying two Liebherr 420 mobile cranes for the harbor in Vladivostok that is heavily backed up due to a lack of cranes and two 45-ton hatches for the construction of the new Project 10510 nuclear powered icebreaker.