Oliver Alexander Profile picture
May 9, 2023 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
🧵Russian May 9th Parade 2023 vehicle composition thread. Now we finally get to compare this year's parade to the previous years'.

This year I have not seen an official lineup released for the first time.

Last year 131 vehicles took part, down from over 200 the previous years ImageImageImage
I am expecting under 100 vehicles, with a distinct lack of MBTs compared to other years. Overall numbers will be pumped up by an increase in Tigr-Ms and similar.
First we have to get wait for the troops to leave Red Square before the vehicles come through. Image
As per tradition, the parade opens with WW2 era T-34-85s.

This year it is again just a single T-34-85. Image
This is immediately followed by 7 Tigr-Ms

(Total Vehicle Count: 8) Image
Getting an accurate count of the next set of vehicles was hard due to camera angles changing, but there are 6 VPK-Urals

(Total Vehicle Count: 14) Image
These were followed by 10 Remdiesel Z-STS Akhmat MRAPs which are only used by Chechen forces.

(Total Vehicle Count: 24) ImageImageImage
Immediately followed by 6 Iskander-M lead by a BTR-82A meaning we skipped the entirety of the IFV and MBT section from last year

(Total Vehicle Count: 31) ImageImage
Followed by 6 S-400 TELs lead by a BTR-82A skipping the short range air defense and entire VDV section from last year.

(Total Vehicle Count: 38) ImageImage
The parade then skipped right to the end with the 3 RS-24 Yars lead by a BTR-82A and flanked by 6 Tigr-Ms. This skipped their usual display of their unmanned ground vehicles. (Total Vehicle Count: 48) ImageImage
Finally the 3 VPK-7829 Bumerang IFVs closed off the parade. (FINAL VEHICLE COUNT: 51) ImageImage
The flyover is expectedly cancelled. As no rehearsals had taken place, this was a guarantee.

Since the invasion the amount of vehicles in the annual parade has plummeted into a pitiful display:
2021: 197
2022: 131
2023: 51
No reason for Ukraine to do anything at the parade. The Russian military is perfectly capable of embarrassing itself.

I am amazed they couldn't even drag one of the T-14s to the parade.
To even get to 51 vehicles, the Russian military had to "borrow" 10 Remdiesel Ahmat Z-STS from Ramzan Kadyrov.
Now we know why they did not release a line up ahead of time.
Putin when the drone attack on the Kremlin wasn't enough to get this shitshow cancelled and spare him the embarrassment.
Image

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More from @OAlexanderDK

Mar 26
As can be seen from this video, Dali starts billowing dark smoke from its funnel just prior to the turn that sets it on a course with the pillar.

At the same time the vessel appears to briefly lose power as many of the lights onboard go out for a few seconds.
Dali starts billowing smoke at 01:25:39 EDT and then loses power for 30 seconds at 01:26:37. This is the exact point when the ship begins to alter course towards the bridge pillar.
Image
Image
The vessel only drifted about 75 meters south west of where it should have passed under the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

It appears very likely that a malfunction on the vessel caused it to briefly lose power, which caused it to drift slightly off course impacting the bridge.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 27
🧵If this video was recorded on January 24th 2024, it poses as many questions as it answers.

Due to the Russian governments decision to add a cut in the middle, it is impossible to verify completely, but here are some things it does show:
The video was indeed filmed at Chkalovsky airport in Moscow where Russia claims the Il-76 that was shot down departed from.

There is a cut towards the end of the video. During this cut, the Tu-154 parked close to the Il-76 has departed.

A Tu-154M matching the aircraft that disappears during the cut departs from Chkalovsky Air Base at 09:55AM MSK on January 24th.


Image
Read 8 tweets
Oct 21, 2023
🧵After looking at all the currently available data on the al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion, I have made two discoveries.

#1: The "rocket" in this video is in fact a Tamir interceptor missile launched by Iron Dome and not directly related to the explosion.
#2 : Two of the videos thought to show the explosion at the hospital, which have been used in many analysis, do not show that blast, but another explosion in Gaza that happened approximately 20 seconds prior.

The first is the video from Netiv HaAsara.


The second is the video posted by Channel 12 News. Both these videos show the same event, which took place just prior to the hospital explosion, but end before we see the explosion or launch of the Tamir interceptor from Iron Dome.


Read 21 tweets
Oct 17, 2023
The failed rocket launch is looking more and more like the culprit in the attack on the hospital.

This video shows the impact a few moments after an interception.
The building burning in the video is the hospital.

Note the distinctive shape and solar panels on the roof of the building in the foreground.

(31.5051383, 34.4612642)

H/T @COUPSURE + @ELINTNews
Image
Image
@COUPSURE @ELINTNews The blast at the hospital happens less than 20 seconds after a large volley of rockets is launched at Israel with a trajectory over the hospital.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 26, 2023
🧵There are a few major points that never get mentioned in the Spiegel article, which add significant question marks to the Andromeda story.

- The owner of Feeria Lwowa
- Weather conditions
- Minerva Julie

spiegel.de/international/…
The article mentions that the company that paid for the Andromeda charter, Feeria Lwowa, is run by a Ukrainian woman in Kyiv.

There is however no mention of the owner of the company "Diana B."

n-tv.de/politik/Nord-S…
Diana B. was born in Uzbekistan, moved to Kerch in 2001, and has Russian citizenship. She still lives in Kerch and moves around freely inside Russia, posting images of herself on social media.

She has also worked for the Pro-Russian authorities in Crimea.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 27, 2023
Seymour Hersh’s latest dementia rant is out which includes this gem: Image
He also now claims that his intelligence sources have told him that the initial attack on the Kerch Bridge in October was done using US technology and submersible drones. Something that, like all Hersh’s statements is categorically false.

oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/the-cause-of…
Yes Hersh, this is definitely something a U.S. official told you and not just one of your many fever dreams or your Russian handler. Image
Read 4 tweets

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