🧵Russian May 9th Parade 2023 vehicle composition thread. Now we finally get to compare this year's parade to the previous years'.
This year I have not seen an official lineup released for the first time.
Last year 131 vehicles took part, down from over 200 the previous years
I am expecting under 100 vehicles, with a distinct lack of MBTs compared to other years. Overall numbers will be pumped up by an increase in Tigr-Ms and similar.
First we have to get wait for the troops to leave Red Square before the vehicles come through.
As per tradition, the parade opens with WW2 era T-34-85s.
This year it is again just a single T-34-85.
This is immediately followed by 7 Tigr-Ms
(Total Vehicle Count: 8)
Getting an accurate count of the next set of vehicles was hard due to camera angles changing, but there are 6 VPK-Urals
(Total Vehicle Count: 14)
These were followed by 10 Remdiesel Z-STS Akhmat MRAPs which are only used by Chechen forces.
(Total Vehicle Count: 24)
Immediately followed by 6 Iskander-M lead by a BTR-82A meaning we skipped the entirety of the IFV and MBT section from last year
(Total Vehicle Count: 31)
Followed by 6 S-400 TELs lead by a BTR-82A skipping the short range air defense and entire VDV section from last year.
(Total Vehicle Count: 38)
The parade then skipped right to the end with the 3 RS-24 Yars lead by a BTR-82A and flanked by 6 Tigr-Ms. This skipped their usual display of their unmanned ground vehicles. (Total Vehicle Count: 48)
Finally the 3 VPK-7829 Bumerang IFVs closed off the parade. (FINAL VEHICLE COUNT: 51)
The flyover is expectedly cancelled. As no rehearsals had taken place, this was a guarantee.
Since the invasion the amount of vehicles in the annual parade has plummeted into a pitiful display:
2021: 197
2022: 131
2023: 51
No reason for Ukraine to do anything at the parade. The Russian military is perfectly capable of embarrassing itself.
I am amazed they couldn't even drag one of the T-14s to the parade.
To even get to 51 vehicles, the Russian military had to "borrow" 10 Remdiesel Ahmat Z-STS from Ramzan Kadyrov.
Now we know why they did not release a line up ahead of time.
Putin when the drone attack on the Kremlin wasn't enough to get this shitshow cancelled and spare him the embarrassment.
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🧵What does the video of the latest ICE shooting show us? A break down of what is visible:
First shots were fired by this officer as the person attempts to get back to his feet. The shots were fired into the man's back from the officer as seen in screenshot 2.
Immediately after the first shots, the officer's scatter and the initial shooter fires several more rounds while backing up, as the man is lying motionless on the ground.
🧵1/10: Since the last thread, several things have shifted at once. Liquidity is tighter, REPO use is higher, household stress is clearer, and fiscal pressure is rising. The system is still working, but on thinner margins.
2/10: REPO has crossed an important line. It no longer spikes and fades. It keeps stepping higher and staying there. Recent auctions near ₽4.7tn show banks now rely on the central bank as a permanent funding source.
3/10: At the same time, net system liquidity has fallen deeper into negative territory. This means REPO is replacing lost deposits, not smoothing temporary gaps. That makes the system more fragile.
🧵1/12: Russia’s economy hasn’t collapsed, but it is suffering immensely. It still runs, but only because the central bank keeps it alive with constant REPO liquidity. What was once emergency support is now the daily operating system.
📷:@evgen1232007
2/12: REPO usage shows the stress clearly. Trillions of rubles are borrowed week after week by the banks with no unwind. Banks aren’t smoothing short-term shocks anymore. They are refinancing theirs and the economy's survival on a rolling basis.
3/12: Oil used to stabilize everything. Now it doesn’t. Russian crude sells at deep discounts due to Western and kinetic sanctions, and tax revenue per barrel keeps falling. Even when export volumes hold, the state earns far less from each barrel.
Elvira Nabiullina is by far the most competent person in the Russian government and has almost single-handedly managed to keep the Russian economy afloat for the past year despite increasing pressure from above to change key policies.
She is however rapidly running out of black magic and the creative accounting required to continue her success. With Israel/Iran not causing the expected oil price surge, the record deficit is increasing and the methods of financing it are dwindling.
OFZs are being sold at record levels to state owned banks, but the high interest rate means the income is only just enough to cover the payments due on last year’s bonds.
The NWF’s liquid assets dipped below the government deficit last month further adding to the headaches.
Summary of the significant evidence that the B-2s currently airborne are a strike package heading directly for Iran:
1. Immediate refuelling after departing from Whiteman Air Force Base indicates that the aircraft are carry close to their maximum payload.
If not an immediate strike, it is highly likely that the ordnance would have be pre-positioned at Guam or Diego Garcia with C-5 or C-17 transport aircraft in order to save the logistical headache of the additional aerial refueling and airframe stress.
2. If the B-2s continue onward to Iran they will arrive on target a few hours prior to opening of the Futures market at 6PM ET Sunday. This will give the Trump administration time to host a press briefing to calm the markets before they open.