Tom Shugart Profile picture
May 9 7 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A good step, but how about we build some aircraft shelters Out West that are built out of concrete, too?
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/i…
Because here's the thing: assuming the PRC has regular EO/IR satellite passes over the bases we plan to use (and I assume that they do), then something like an inflatable rubber hangar that appears overnight will obviously be fake, as a real hardened shelter takes time to build.
I mean it's a worthwhile thing to add to the mix, as the PRC won't know if there's an airplane in there or not, but we shouldn't kid ourselves that they're going to be fooled that it's a hardened shelter.
Have to say I'm not a fan of this statement by PACAF, which hearkens back to a fight where the US had near-complete freedom of action in the air.
In a large-scale fight that has highly contested skies and where quantities of precision munitions may be limited on both sides... Image
...there's a huge difference between having to assign at least one weapon (probably a precious long-range one, given IADS) to each hardened shelter, versus being able to sweep entire sections of ramp areas with submunitions from a single one (like a PLARF DF-26).
Behold Andersen AFB, with literally irreplaceable B-1 bombers sitting in the open, easily located and efficiently targeted—and within range of hundreds of DF-26s. Image
Contrast this with the PLAAF's H-6 bomber bases at Lu'An and Neixiang, where they've built bomber-size shelters that—even if not fully hardened—at least obscure, and perhaps protect to a slight degree, China's bomber force. ImageImage

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More from @tshugart3

May 4
Stumbled onto an interesting (to me) development over at COSCO shipping, a PRC state-owned shipping company that works with the PLA, and routinely takes part in amphibious landing exercises.
Turns out that due to rising demand for export of Chinese cars, COSCO has come up with a way to convert bulk carrier ships (plain old cargo ships with big, empty holds) into car carriers. Makes sense: they can transport cars out & bulk raw materials back. maritime-executive.com/article/cosco-…
They did this by developing a system of racks that can hold cars in layers, with the bottom of the cargo hold modified to accept those racks and hold them securely.
The ship even has its own cranes, so that it can unload itself if cranes are unavailable.
splash247.com/cosco-develops…
Read 15 tweets
May 4
Just a reminder, now that we have evidence of UUV-capable Russian ships operating near Nordstream 2 at just the right time to sabotage it…
…that @RStatecraft—which claims to be a serious think tank—has been flogging Seymour Hersh’s absurd America-blaming conspiracy theory for months…
Read 4 tweets
May 2
Lots of agree with here, of course, but a couple of maritime nits to pick with some of the Chairman’s statements here: foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/how-t…
First, he characterizes Ukraine as a “landlocked” country. While the war has mostly been a land war, Ukraine has a coastline over 2700km long, and the maritime picture has mattered a fair bit in its progress - remember the Moskva sinking, grain convoys, Snake Island, etc. Image
For perspective, on a straight-line basis Ukraine’s coastline is roughly as far as from DC to the end of Cape Cod. I’d say that matters. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Apr 21
We recently saw the release of the USN's FY2024 30-year shipbuilding plan. Based on that report, plus @CRS4Congress's most recent report on PLA Navy modernization, here is a chart of both navies' past and future (estimated) ship inventories over time. 😐 Image
Source data for the USN came from here: news.usni.org/2023/04/20/rep…
PLA Navy estimates are from this report, which itself gathers information from ONI, the DoD China Military Power report, etc. crsreports.congress.gov/product/detail…
Read 5 tweets
Apr 19
I hesitate to further the distribution of this @Newsweek piece, but I just...can't let it percolate out there without addressing some of its misleading statements and misunderstandings concerning the U.S. submarine force and submarine operations.
newsweek.com/2023/05/05/exc…
First, let's start with the basic premise: that we're going to spend a lot of money (more on that later) on subs that we "barely use". The first thing presented is: USN "can deploy barely a quarter" of the SSN force at any one time, & only 10% "operated stealthily". 🤔 Image
First, I've no idea what magic happens at the 30-day point that suddenly makes time submerged count as operating "stealthily". You're either operating in a "stealthy" manner (to varying degrees) or you're not, assuming enough time to lose any snoopers (hint: it's not 30 days).
Read 25 tweets
Apr 9
A couple of times now, I've posted calculations of the total tonnage of warships launched by the PLA Navy over a 5-year period, providing a comparison with similar totals for the USN & allied/partner navies.
Let’s take a deeper look: over the last decade.
These estimates will generally cover ships launched from 2013-2022, and will include ships useful in high intensity combat/power projection: subs, carriers, amphibious assault ships, surface combatants, ocean going fleet auxiliaries (e.g., tankers), and mine warfare ships.
First, let’s look at hull count. By my estimate, the PLAN launched 160 warships over the years 2013-2022.
As before, these numbers are from open source data for ship launches which China doesn't always publicize, so don't @ me if you have a niggle with them. 🤷‍♂️
Read 21 tweets

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