Checking in on regional Russian Victory Day parades. Mostly missing: professional enlisted who are deployed. Present: conscripts, cadets, instructors, other ministries. And, more tanks than in Moscow's parade. Highlights from the regions and thoughts 1/
Moving east to west: Vladivostok had a large parade, as did Khabarovsk, Ussuriysk, Yuzno-Sakhalinsk. Cadets, Yunarmiya, conscripts, MChs, Rosgvardia present. Just not the contractniki. Handfuls of tanks and BTRs. A lot of MVD equipment. 2/
Novosibirsk had a big parade, with the same thing -- cadets, Ground Forces conscripts, MVD, MChs, other units. A handful of IFVs and tanks, but other larger equipment. 3/
Nizhniy Novgorod, cadets, MVD and Rosgvardia, MChs, some conscripts from tank units, pictured. 4/
One more from Khabarovsk, 2S19 Msta artillery 5/
From Vladikavkaz, more of the same: conscripts, MChs, Rosgvardia, schools/cadets. /6
V-day in St. Petersburg, there are a lot TIGR vehicles in these parades, not associated with the Ground Forces. /7
The VDV story gets interesting. The VDV has taken heavy casualties and most of remaining units are in occupied Ukraine. Ryazan's parade was cancelled, (left) and their conscripts, cadets, and personnel marched in the Moscow Vday parade (right) /8
The VDV unit in Ivanovo (98th Guards) had a parade, looks like conscripts based on some of their ages, but not much VDV equipment present /9
Pskov, home of the 76th GAAD, cancelled most festivities. There are reportedly wounded soldiers there in hospitals, in various states of trauma and PTSD so fireworks were cancelled. Most of it is deployed along the Russian front. /10.
and finally, a sizeable event in Murmansk up in the north /11
and one more from Siberia (Chita) /12
In sum, the typical players were at these events, but the contract soldiers fighting in Ukraine are missing. There were few passing references to those fighting in Ukraine, that they were 'defending russia against faciscm' , and hopes for their safe return. /13
It's surreal watching these parades, venerating WW2 while no one can have an open discussion about what's happening to their CURRENT army and airborne -- both equipment and men-- that are being destroyed or damaged beyond repair. /end
Russia did not call off a large drone attack last night within ten minutes of the presidents’ call, and 100+ drones were launched last night from 1900 (when call ended) until after midnight Moscow time. We can step through this with basic timelines and calculations. /1
We know Shaheds speeds, launch sites thanks to various monitors, we know general routes, and what time they impacted cities last night. (Older image below for reference). /2
Ukraine said the attacks began at 1900, close to when the call ended, until 0200+. So some Shaheds were probably already airborne by 1800 Moscow time, but Russia continued to launch fresh waves up to 5-6 hours after the call ended. /3
On the operational impact of US aid suspension to Ukraine: frontline stability for the AFU rests on effective drone and artillery use. The timeline below is a gradual degradation and not off/on switch. The suspension will have other problems for soldier morale and operations. /1
Morale: Ukrainian forces are undermanned already, and this problem is unresolved. Desertions, recruiting, soldiers going AWOL for a few weeks to recover, are known problems. Suspension of aid and simultaneous rapprochement with Russia worsens these problems /2
Will to fight: Ukrainian forces continued to fight through wavering US support in 2024 when aid was paused in Congress for over six months. They are tough. Too soon to assess impact of this situation but there are negative potentials here and I will watch closely. /3
Pausing to reflect, I've now worked 20 years in DC. 20 years on the Russian military. 5 U.S. administrations and 4 Russian wars. What a time it has been. A brief thread of gratitude to those I've met on the way. /1
To friends and colleagues from the Pentagon and the shadows: as we said back then, if they made a movie about things we've seen with our own eyes, no one would believe it. Pacing the Pentagon courtyard at dawn and late night, windows all lit up, I was proud to be part of it. /2
To our 🇺🇸servicemen and women that I've met, from our most senior officers to our junior enlisted, it has always been one of my greatest privileges to support you, work with you, study with you, and understand the adventures and sacrifices of a military life. I'm proud of you. /3
There are many rumors that Russia is evacuating its bases at Tartus and Khmeimim in Syria, but most assets remain there. If evacuation happens, it will be obvious. A brief thread on what is happening now and what future moves would look like. 🧵
As of 7 December, most of Russia’s ships are in or near port in Tartus. Follow @KaptainLOMA for updates on their presence.
These ships cannot return to the Black Sea while Turkey has closed the straits under the Montreux Convention so they would have to attempt a very long journey to the Baltic Fleet, or try to find a temporary accommodation nearby at a limited number of ports (Libya, Sudan, Algeria)
One of Russia’s top priorities in Syria is maintaining base access. Syria is a critical waypoint for Russian activities elsewhere in the region. Watch for signs that PMCs are redeploying to Syria. By now, Russia probably has made its assessments and is executing plans. (1/3)
Z channels lament the loss of experienced commanders like Surovikin/Prigozhin. Surovikin has been tapped before to address hard problems like this and received awards for his Syrian command (old photo). There are politics involved now, Gerasimov tapped in Chaiko. Let’s see. (2/3)
Russia has some tactical aviation bandwidth it could surge, limited by base capacities (+ base protection capacity which has never been robust), and spare PMCs not in Ukraine. Long range strike options limited by Ukraine ops and on hand/resupply capacity to ships at Tartus. 3/3
I've returned from a research trip to Ukraine, where I met many people in Kyiv and along the frontlines. They are brave and kind in ways that words fail to capture. The situation is serious and urgent for many reasons. I share my thoughts in the thread below. /1
As officials and others have already said publicly, Ukraine is facing a shortage of manpower - infantry in particular. Mobilization has not brought relief for many reasons. More impacts in the story below. /2 ft.com/content/adbef9…
Manpower and force employment issues are challenges right now, and manpower is stretched across the front. A shortage of western weapons was not the most critical issue during this particular snapshot in time, although it has been in the past. /3