Dara Massicot Profile picture
May 9 15 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Checking in on regional Russian Victory Day parades. Mostly missing: professional enlisted who are deployed. Present: conscripts, cadets, instructors, other ministries. And, more tanks than in Moscow's parade. Highlights from the regions and thoughts 1/ Image
Moving east to west: Vladivostok had a large parade, as did Khabarovsk, Ussuriysk, Yuzno-Sakhalinsk. Cadets, Yunarmiya, conscripts, MChs, Rosgvardia present. Just not the contractniki. Handfuls of tanks and BTRs. A lot of MVD equipment. 2/ ImageImageImageImage
Novosibirsk had a big parade, with the same thing -- cadets, Ground Forces conscripts, MVD, MChs, other units. A handful of IFVs and tanks, but other larger equipment. 3/ ImageImage
Nizhniy Novgorod, cadets, MVD and Rosgvardia, MChs, some conscripts from tank units, pictured. 4/ Image
One more from Khabarovsk, 2S19 Msta artillery 5/ Image
From Vladikavkaz, more of the same: conscripts, MChs, Rosgvardia, schools/cadets. /6 ImageImage
V-day in St. Petersburg, there are a lot TIGR vehicles in these parades, not associated with the Ground Forces. /7 Image
The VDV story gets interesting. The VDV has taken heavy casualties and most of remaining units are in occupied Ukraine. Ryazan's parade was cancelled, (left) and their conscripts, cadets, and personnel marched in the Moscow Vday parade (right) /8 ImageImage
The VDV unit in Ivanovo (98th Guards) had a parade, looks like conscripts based on some of their ages, but not much VDV equipment present /9 Image
Pskov, home of the 76th GAAD, cancelled most festivities. There are reportedly wounded soldiers there in hospitals, in various states of trauma and PTSD so fireworks were cancelled. Most of it is deployed along the Russian front. /10. Image
and finally, a sizeable event in Murmansk up in the north /11 ImageImage
and one more from Siberia (Chita) /12 Image
In sum, the typical players were at these events, but the contract soldiers fighting in Ukraine are missing. There were few passing references to those fighting in Ukraine, that they were 'defending russia against faciscm' , and hopes for their safe return. /13
It's surreal watching these parades, venerating WW2 while no one can have an open discussion about what's happening to their CURRENT army and airborne -- both equipment and men-- that are being destroyed or damaged beyond repair. /end
did i miss up my own thread? here's the rest.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dara Massicot

Dara Massicot Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @MassDara

May 7
Prigozhin's publicity campaign yields results: Wagner to get weapons/ammo, and Surovikin is named as Wagner-MOD liaison. I can only speculate on the level of Kremlin intervention here. Shoigu and Gerasimov still retain the means to play their long game & isolate their rivals.
Shoigu and Gerasimov control logistics, plans, and resources, and they both know how to play the game in Moscow. Perhaps they will be less obvious about sabotaging Prigozhin, but I doubt they will stop unless threatened directly by Putin himself. The bad blood goes back years.
The Kremlin is looking for a 'win' - and Bakhmut is the closest one they have right now. The Kremlin can't risk messing that up, given how many pressures are going on at once. Wagner is needed to achieve that goal. The larger effort also needs all fighters it can get right now.
Read 5 tweets
May 2
Russian casualties are in the news. Yesterday, White House spox John Kirby said that Russia had sustained 20,000 KIA since December along the front. I'd like to highlight the in-depth work on this grim topic that is being done by @bbcrussian and @mediazona_en /1 Image
First, there are many different numbers out there for Russian (and Ukrainian) casualties. This is time-consuming work these organizations are doing, and many thanks go to the research teams at @bbcrussian and @mediazona_en to verify this information, and making it available. /2
Their numbers are confirmed through a variety of methods but mostly use confirmed methods of KIA such as funerals or announcements. As such, they note that the numbers are likely underreported and there may be a lag. Here are their totals, as of 7 April 2023: 19,688 Image
Read 13 tweets
Apr 28
Well, this is is twisted. Russia has a new program to take demobilized Russian soldiers from the war in Ukraine, give them 4 days of basic psychiatric support and training on how to be a mentor for kids, then sending them to Russian schools. /1

meduza.io/en/feature/202…
If you think this sounds like a bad idea, you're right! Yet, it is part of a larger effort underway to increase patriotism, 'moral, spiritual, and psychological strength' in Russia. This included in major strategy documents and efforts are especially pronounced since 2022 /2
Youth patriotic education is an area of particular focus. This particular effort, "Your Hero" takes recent veterans, perhaps in various states of post-traumatic stress, and potentially witnessed or participated in systemic war crimes in Ukraine, and puts them in schools /3
Read 9 tweets
Apr 18
Victory Day celebrations will look different this year, as Russian authorities try to manage public perceptions of the damage to its military. A roll up of changes so far: Image
First - there will be no Immortal Regiment marches in Russia at all this year— online events will be offered and other alternative celebrations, announced today. The authorities have said this change is due to unspecified security risks to march participants. / 2
The Immortal Regiment is a memorial procession of family members and pictures of those killed in war, mostly from WW2. Russian authorities say the change is for “security reasons” for a congregated group. These type of celebrations will consist of posters and online events /3
Read 13 tweets
Apr 3
I’ve been quiet lately; buried in an avalanche of things. It’s that time of year again- the Russian spring draft. 145,000 is a slight increase over recent draft cycle goals. Big picture, their manning numbers don’t make a lot of sense right now, and it tells me a few things:
Their stated goals to reach an expanded force of 1.5 million remain aspirational and probably unlikely, without multiple rounds of mobilization or an extension of the conscription period from 12 months to 24 months again (as it was until mid-2000s).
If they elongated service time to two years, assuming two drafts each year at a capacity of 130-150k, that could net the military somewhere around 300,000 additional conscript billets on the books in a few years, but it comes with drawbacks…
Read 10 tweets
Mar 23
📣Proud to announce that 2 of 3 RAND reports I oversaw on the Russian military are finally cleared for public release. Written in 2021 by talented teams, they are: one report on the General Staff, one on gaps between theories & capability, & one upcoming on military personnel./1
This new report, led by Alexis Blanc, discusses the the Russian General Staff: its organizational culture, its authorities, how it has commanded previous conflicts this decade, and its unique obstructionism. /2 rand.org/pubs/research_…
The report notes how many different factors had to align for military reform back in 2009: money, operational problems as public catalyst, top cover from the Kremlin to make major changes, leadership willing to withstand public critique, + demographic pressures. /3
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(