Thread by @YudinGreg

Defeat. A thread 1/23

One important indicator for me is how often people in Russia talk about possible defeat. I must confess that it happens now really often, which is a dramatic turn from the early months of the war 2/23

For quite a while, nobody took the word “defeat” in their mouth, even if they considered the invasion to be an insane choice. That has changed 3/23

While majority in Russia remains detached and prefers to avoid bad thoughts, those who dare to think are increasingly accepting that the war is likely to end with a defeat 4/23

That applies perhaps mostly to those who tend to support Putin in this war for one reason or another (mainly because they fail to make difference between Putin’s and national interests). This is a mood I notice in people from various industries, all of them rather elevated 5/23

Similar mood flows over into the public sphere. Both Prigozhin and Kadyrov play their games, but between the lines they let out the shared assessment of the situation. Kadyrov says "it is very difficult", while Prigozhin warns of a looming catastrophe 6/23

The whole public fight between feudal warlords makes it extremely difficult to imagine this army achieving any success. Their language projects defeat, and this is what I often hear – “I don’t know how this can possibly end with a victory” 7/23

A recent confession from Andrey Kovalev, one of the major Russian developers, is indicative, too. Putin was feeding the rich people with the stories of how he is going to win it in the end, and now they seem to lose confidence 8/19 cnn.com/videos/world/2…

I am no military expert, but I have a better view of morale in the Russian army. It is very low, and the two motives to go to war remain (1) rare chance to earn some money and (2) submissiveness 9/23

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russian army collapses after a couple of setbacks. I have no idea how likely that is (the Ukrainian offensive capabilities are often debated), but I consider it to be a distinct possibility 10/23

The state-controlled media are preparing the audience for possible setbacks. meduza.io/en/feature/202… 11/19

Putin’s ability to recruit more soldiers remains significant but limited. Importantly, it is affected by the situation on the battlefield. Nobody wants to be part of a losing army, but that matters more for the sort of motivation dominant among the Russian soldiers 12/23

These are all early signs, of course, and Putin will be constantly killing the flames. In order to translate into action, these attitudes should rely on some vision of how the future might look like 13/23

That poses a difficult question. How a defeat might look like? 14/23

Putin has been pushing the idea that a defeat will mean the invasion of Russia, the country dismembered, the Russian women raped, children slaughtered and crucified, the foreigners ruling the land. Even Kovalev’s ends with stressing that defeat would be a catastrophe 15/23

Many Russians are convinced that the country is mortally threatened by the NATO forces. Several times I was told by the people I respect as cold-headed that this is all extremely bad, but what can we do – “if we don’t take Kyiv, they will take Moscow anyway” 16/23

The conversation about defeat is taking off in Russia, and it is important to untie the idea of defeat from the fears of catastrophe. Whose defeat it will be? This is another question 17/23

While there is no doubt that Russian people will take significant responsibility for this brutal assault on Ukraine – it is still important to discuss the differential responsibility. The defeat of Putin’s atrocious plans should be separated from the defeat of Russia 18/23

Russia has already lost when this war was launched – an unspeakable damage has been done to the country. Ending this war by recognizing internationally recognized borders of all countries is not a defeat for Russia, it is a beginning of the revival 19/23

It is no coincidence that Zombie TV tries to convince the audience that “everyone will go to the Hague is we lose”.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1597570801166942208

20/23

This is a lie, however, that shouldn't be supported. THEY will lose, and they will go to hell, and they know it. While WE have already lost when this war started, and we will have to rebuild the country and start restoring relationships with neighbors 21/23

This new emerging attitude offers new opportunities. Instead of trying to figure out what part of Ukraine will be enough for Putin (my answer is always Dresden), it is high time to think what are the costs and opportunities for Russia after Putin’s defeat and removal 22/23

This is a task for both the conversation between Russians and an international dialogue. There is no doubt Putin will do everything possible to preclude this conversation. But the sooner the solution emerges, the faster this war ends with justice 23/23