Hidden Value Gems Profile picture
May 10 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Is #VW $VOW.DE a value trap?

Cc @StefanHesse68

Some interesting points by @FT

1 | VW has been too slow in developing software.

2 | it is losing mkt share in China which is becoming more electric. ~ 50% of VW profits come from China

Some quotes 📝👇
3 | “Decisions over design and engineering problems get stalled between Wolfsburg and the group’s numerous Chinese offices and factories. VW cars are developed in Germany for European customers before models are tweaked to become China-made for Chinese consumers.”
4 | “As it tried to pivot to electric models, VW remained “highly dependent” on major suppliers who made parts for internal combustion engines, the former executive said. This meant that it had fallen behind not only Chinese rivals but also Tesla, which was becoming deeply… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
5 | “Volkswagen is a giant of fuel vehicles . . . It is like asking an elephant to turn around,” the former executive said.
6 | “They can offer beautiful cars also with an electric battery, that is no problem at all, but the software is just so outdated, it is just embarrassing,” he said.
“Maybe for Europe it is good enough for a few more years. For China very quickly that will run into a dead end.”
7 | “If they cannot solve that they will have a ‘hole’ in new product launches for maybe one or two years — that can really kill a company,” the former executive said.

Full article

Can Volkswagen win back China? on.ft.com/41cofNX

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More from @HiddenValueGems

May 10
I rarely pay attention to macro forecasts. I’d rather spend time looking for great businesses selling cheap.

However, one person I listen to on macro is Stan Druckenmiller. Just finished listening to his presentation at the USC 🧵👇

1/15 Image
US fiscal position is on unsustainable path. US is already spending almost 40% of all taxes on seniors. In 20 years this will rise to 60%.

2/15 Image
During the last decade, US debt grew from $15T to $31T today, a level only comparable to that after WWII.

“But what is worse is that this debt does not account for what the government has promised it will pay you in terms of social security and Medicare.”

3/15 Image
Read 15 tweets
May 10
A good summary on why US homebuilders have rallied this year by @rbrtrmstrng

1 | the obvious reason is the low valuation and very weak expectations last year.

2 | more important is the decline in supply of existing homes available for sale.

$DHI $NVR $PHM $LEN $TOL

🧵👇 Image
3 | as a result, the share of new homes in total supply has gone up benefiting the homebuilders.

"It's as if there is a game being played and one team decided not to come." ImageImage
4 | small builders also suffered from limited resources and access to capital allowing large homebuilders to gain market share.

5 | large homebuilders have internal mortgage units allowing them to offer cheaper loans to keep prices stable and win more customers.
Read 4 tweets
May 8
$BABA stock is down 73% from the all-time high and is only 22% above the IPO price in 2014.

Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen its active customers in China grow by 2.7x (to 930m), revenue by 11.3x (to $130b) and profits by 4.7x (to $24.3b).

5 reasons why I still like it
🧵👇 $BABA share price performan...ImageImageImage
1 | Jack Ma’s conflict with the government seems to be over

2 | Group reorganisation should lead to further efficiency and potential stock re-rating (headline earnings are suppressed by losses in non-core segments)
3 | The company has shifted its focus from building the largest eco-system to maximising profits

4 | Opening up of the Chinese economy

5 | The sale of Softbank’s stake in Alibaba ($36bn) is largely over (no more technical share overhang) ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
May 7
The most important points I picked up from the Woodstock for Capitalists (aka as $BRK annual meeting) 📝👇
Current banking crisis:

1 | depositors are safe, but not so obvious for banks’ lenders and shareholders. You need punishment for people whose behaviour has led to the current problems if you want their behaviour to change in the future.
2 | The risk is that the traditional stickiness of deposits is not there anymore. Not least because of technology and confusing communication

3 | $BAC is the only bank stock Berkshire holds. Seems like they are not keen on buying other banks, sold all other bank stocks recently
Read 12 tweets
Apr 17
The new memo by Howard Marks, unsurprisingly on #SVB debacle and broader banking issues. Some points which caught my eye 📖👇
1 | “My sense is that the significance of the failure of SVB is less that it portends additional bank failures and more that it may amplify preexisting wariness among investors and lenders, leading to further credit tightening and additional pain across a range of industries and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2 | “I think the similarities between 2008 and 2023 are limited to the mere fact that, in both instances, problems existed at a few financial institutions.  I find the common elements mostly superficial.  What follows are the differences.”
Read 7 tweets
Apr 17
For those considering or holding $SCHW, some points to keep in mind:

1/ “ We believe Schwab has enough liquidity to operate its business, but we no longer believe the company is in a position to return capital.”
2/ “Schwab saw a higher degree of deposit flight in Q4 than we expected leading us to believe the problem could get worse before it gets better.”
3/ “Schwab may even need to raise additional equity capital to reassure the market of its liquidity position which would drastically change the risk/reward calculation of investing in the stock.”

H/t @LuisVSanchez777

lvsadvisory.com/wp-content/upl…
Read 4 tweets

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