Thread by @nialloconghaile

Precedents, #Brexit, #rejoinUK and how Europe works

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The origins of this thread lie in a discussion around the 2016 ref with a Brexiter. He stated that “all we want is what Liechtenstein has – single market with no free movement – the precedent is there. EU should give it to us”.

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I am dubious that this would have satisfied either him or the Brexiters, who needed to go through Brexit to understand why they shouldn’t want it.

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(Sidenote: British friends, both remain and Brexity, never talk about Brexit anymore. Is it Brexit or is it me?)

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This idea that there is a “precedent” comes from a fatal misunderstanding of what Europe is and how it works.

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Decision-making is laborious in Europe, and rightly so. It has to balance the needs of small and big states, rich and poor, northern and southern, western and central European, industrial and agrarian… and then all the competing interests among citizens and groups.

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It is a very complex polity.

Yet throughout it has had two primary standards when it comes to policy:

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Compromise – which can seem messy, but pulls states along together. That may involve opt-outs for MSs. It does make it incredibly hard, perhaps impossible, to break into and change policy in favour of an outside interest.

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Freedom of action – Europe always retains decision-making autonomy and freedom to take the action it sees as necessary – is always retained. The walls between MSs and non-members is clear and never breached.

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Europe does understand precedent, of course: Barnier’s famous steps of doom are an expression of that.

But it reflects precedents that suit Europe’s relationships, both for MSs and for close states like Norway or Ukraine.

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What my Brexity friend had misunderstood is that the dispensation from the four freedoms was given to Liechtenstein because of its very unusual situation – a tiny, rich, mountainous state.

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It is not a “precedent” for the UK because that doesn’t apply to the UK. And even if it was, it’s not a precedent because Europe will take decisions on the merits on *what’s good for European states and citizens*

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It is not a business that has to sell something to the UK, say, and therefore needs to match the offer given to others.

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Unfortunately, we see this problem – can we say “precedentism” – all the time among both Brexiters and rejoiners.

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An obvious example: Switzerland. Brexiters long argued that CH’s special and separate deals were a precedent UK could use to negotiate financial-services access and eliminate free movement.

Cunning, eh.

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Except Europe is not interested in this "precedent", because it doesn’t work for Europe, and would be even worse with a truculent ex-member state.

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Exceptionalists: “But Japan has a six-month visa waiver, they’ll give that to us too”
Japan’s dates from an agreement with Austria from 1958, before Schengen existed. It’s not available to third countries today.

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"Denmark has a home-affairs opt-out, and it's only Denmark".

Denmark is not applying to join Europe. It is not a precedent.

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"Romania didn't join Schengen, we won't have to".

Not for want of trying. It's also not a member who left Europe.

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Brexiters: "They gave NI a deal with goods access but no free movement. They can extend that to Britain"

NI is a post-conflict zone where everyone born there is an Irish and European citizen by birth right.

Not a precedent.

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"We have free movement with Ireland. We can just negotiate the same type of deal with other European states, the ones we want to be able to live and work in"

As yes, 180-days in Spain nonsense.

CTA predates Europe and Ireland is not in Schengen

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"Portugal gives special work visas to Lusophone countries, they will give them to Brits too, and we can sidestep Brussels".

Not a precedent. Why would Portugal take the side of people who damaged their partners and allies by Brexiting and try to con those same allies?

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"Come on, Sweden hasn't joined the euro, we won't have to".

Interesting non-precendent. Sweden didn't try to undermine the euro when a member; and Sweden is trusted.

UK will have to commit to the euro at a minimum.

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"So the UK doesn't meet the economic and political requirements for entry to Europe, Europe will fudge that cos we're Britain, like they did for Greece joining the euro."

I'm fairly certain we've all learned lessons from Greece and the euro.

"The EU won't insist on democratic requirements for accession. After all, Hungary is a member".

All the more point not to have a bigger Hungary

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"EU allows diagonal cumulation for RoO with some African states. It will allow us to do so with Japanese inputs and sell them as British into the European market".

Eh, why would we let Britain become a low-standard assembly line? Not a precedent.

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"We just have to accept equivalence, then they'll accept our goods".

Sorry, @BremainInSpain , the Norwegian precendent requires a huge nest of agreements, trust, and court oversight. You don't "accept" it.

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Brexiters: "They gave SPS equivalence to NZ, why not us too?"

Hmm. We trust NZ not to lower standards. And it's very far away.

Here's a CH-SPS deal.

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(sorely tempted to put up Minas Tirith)

"Spain has a golden visa, they can just give us visa waivers so we can visit our summer houses on the costas without worrying about 90/180".

Dunno where to start with this. But anyhow, it's less of a precedent than a Roald Dahl novel.

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Europe is full of beautiful exceptions. It's part of what makes Europe Europe.

@IrishEUPassport @goodclimate

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https://twitter.com/nialloconghaile/status/1653477085451567121?s=20

But it is a nonsense to think that these exceptions are precedents for the UK. Mainly because it's not like these places; it's bigger. But also because the UK is a departed state and not in a good place vis-à-vis Europe right now and won't be for a while.

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Rejoiners and Brexiters have to get over the fallacy that agreements are precedents

Fantasies are a waste of energy. Brexiters, it’s probably too late for them.

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But rejoiners need to focus on what Europe wants - not opt-outs or pulling the wool over our eyes - what Britain can bring to the table, with commitment. Commitment to defending Europe, our values and our way of life.

Ends