Thread by @Usherwood

A quick parsing of the #REULBill u-turn

tl;dr the ice feels a bit thin for No.10, compared to the post-Windsor glow

1/

You will recall that Windsor was notable as much for the lack of pushback by CON backbenchers as for its content

2/

At the time, I put this down more to a collective action problem than any substantive agreement over the Framework's content

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1630185860011372544?s=20

3/

Part of that was down to a high level of coordination in govt about the messaging: this was a meeting of minds and a win for hard negotiating with EU, rather than any kind of sell-out

Fine, as far as it went

4/

But #REUL is different, as there's no (formal) cross-linkage, despite some people's suspicions

https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1643538538842005504?s=20

5/

The change to #REULBill is justified by Badenoch by approach taken in Whitehall (in much less lurid terms than the DT's accompanying headline)

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/…
6/

In Badenoch's terms, it's a procedural change, rather than a change of ultimate objective (and that would fit with most observers' views too)

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1656330790240940032?s=20

7/

But there's much grumbling in the ranks

JRM blames Sunak: bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

And the UQ happening now is mostly MPs blaming govt too

8/

So this is becoming all very personalised, which might concern Sunak, who's built up his rep during 2023 on 'getting things done'

9/

It's also telling that while backbenches seemed to cope with deals with the EU, they aren't taking unilateral 'flakiness' (my word) nearly so well, suggesting that there remain strong limits on how biddable they are

10/

Evidently, we're not in full-blown rebellion yet and #REULBill amendments are likely to pass, but this hurts Sunak's narrative and all remaining plans for UK-EU coop in this Parliament

11/

And to finish, we might put all this back on the continuing unwillingness of No.10 (and not just the current resident) to try to be more open about what it's doing

/end

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1643545644265504769?s=20

@UKandEU @AndrewSparrow @OUPolitics