Thread by @ChadPergram

1) User’s Manual to How Democrats Could Try to Make GOPers Sweat Over Santos

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) just blasted GOPers about Rep. George Santos (R-NY).

2) But why wouldn't Democrats try to engineer Santos's ouster from the House? They have the tools to do so.

3) But Jeffries says he has not yet spoken with various members of his caucus who want to expel Santos nor has he had a conversation about it with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Jeffries says they’ve been consumed this week because of the debt ceiling talks.

4) However, here are the mechanics:

Any member from either party could introduce a “privileged resolution” to expel Santos. By its nature, the House must consider a privileged resolution immediately or within a two-day window.

5) An expulsion requires a two-thirds vote (290 of 435, if everyone is voting). The House has only expelled five members in its history.

Here’s the gambit if Democrats were try to expel Santos:

6) There are a lot of Republicans who have called for Santos to “resign” or have declared he isn’t fit for office. So a Democratic resolution to expel Santos would put them on the spot. Democrats would likely have all 213 members vote to expel Santos.

7) So Democrats would be putting GOPers on the spot. Either they vote to expel Santos or they stand with him.

If the House gets two-thirds of its members to expel Santos, the deed is done. But even so, Democrats can point to the GOP members who voted against expulsion.

8) That is politically explosive in and of itself. Moreover, Democrats will have created a toxic vote for GOPers if Republicans stand behind Santos and DON’T expel him.

9) Democrats and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) could then weaponize the expulsion roll call vote against vulnerable Republicans from swing districts.

But Republicans could try to dodge the bullet.

10) They could move to table the Democrats’ resolution to expel Santos or move to refer it to the Ethics Committee (the Ethics Committee is already investigating Santos). Those parliamentary moves would be made on the floor.

11) If the House voted to table, the gig is up. Santos remains in the House. If the House votes to send the resolution to committee, that extinguishes it, too. Simple majorities are needed for those roll call votes.

12) Republicans will have avoided a straight up or down vote on Santos’s future. But Democrats could also use those roll call votes against the GOP by saying Republicans can’t even bring themselves to expel Santos.

Democrats can also make mischief for Republicans in another way.

13) Let’s say the House votes to expel Santos. He becomes the sixth member expelled from the House in U.S. history and the first since 2002.

His seat on Long Island is vacant. The governor cannot appoint someone to fill his seat.

14) There must be a special election for fulfill the remainder of Santos’s term. Santos flipped that seat from blue to red in 2022. Democrats believe they have a better than even chance of winning that seat back.

But it’s about the math.

15) If the House expelled Santos, the new breakdown would be 221 Republicans and 213 Democrats. There are 434 members. 218 is the magic number to pass anything. So McCarthy’s margin slips from four votes to three.

16) Moreover, if Democrats were to win a hypothetical special election in Santos’s district, the breakdown would be 221 Democrats and 214 Democrats with 435 members. The magic number to pass a bill is still 218. But McCarthy can still only lose three votes.

17) So, it’s unclear why Democrats won’t execute this gambit to expel Santos. Or, at the very least, make Republicans sweat and give them headaches.

18) One senior House source suggested to Fox that, ironically, BOTH SIDES NEED SANTOS around potentially to vote on a debt ceiling deal to avoid a default.