There's starting to be a slight uncomfortable feeling in the Russian telegram channels. The last few days there have been reports about a "river" crossing close to Velyka Novosilka. There are also some local counter attacks with success in the Bakhmut area.
In addition to that, there are very recent Russian telegram reports of Ukrainian offensives in the Soledar and Mayorsk area.
It seems units of the RU 3rd Army Corps have been holding the line in the area SW of Bakhmut. These are rapidly trained personnel which were recruited last summer. Their losses are now being replaced by mobik regiments. I think it's likely Azov will eat them for breakfast.
I think it's likely we are seeing UA shaping operations to force a reaction from the Russians. I find it unlikely Bakhmut direction will be the main effort of a UA offensive.
We will most likely see pretty heavy preparation once Ukraine is ready to start their main effort.
There was reported fighting on the border of Belgorod peoples republic this morning.
Kots must be the Russian version of JR:
" Tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine go along the Kharkov bypass towards the border with Russia." t.me/sashakots/39713
"The breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Bogdanovka, unfortunately, was successful. Units of the 9 SMEs of the RF Armed Forces have lost several more square kilometers." t.me/brussinf/5964
The feeling in the Russian channels have gone from uncomfortable, to worrying. t.me/notes_veterans…
Please this thread is not a confirmation about what is actually happening, I'm just enjoying the increasing Russian panic.
Funny thing, when the Russians started their winter offensive. It took 3 weeks for people to notice.
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The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992