There's starting to be a slight uncomfortable feeling in the Russian telegram channels. The last few days there have been reports about a "river" crossing close to Velyka Novosilka. There are also some local counter attacks with success in the Bakhmut area.
In addition to that, there are very recent Russian telegram reports of Ukrainian offensives in the Soledar and Mayorsk area.
It seems units of the RU 3rd Army Corps have been holding the line in the area SW of Bakhmut. These are rapidly trained personnel which were recruited last summer. Their losses are now being replaced by mobik regiments. I think it's likely Azov will eat them for breakfast.
I think it's likely we are seeing UA shaping operations to force a reaction from the Russians. I find it unlikely Bakhmut direction will be the main effort of a UA offensive.
We will most likely see pretty heavy preparation once Ukraine is ready to start their main effort.
There was reported fighting on the border of Belgorod peoples republic this morning.
Kots must be the Russian version of JR:
" Tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine go along the Kharkov bypass towards the border with Russia." t.me/sashakots/39713
"The breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Bogdanovka, unfortunately, was successful. Units of the 9 SMEs of the RF Armed Forces have lost several more square kilometers." t.me/brussinf/5964
The feeling in the Russian channels have gone from uncomfortable, to worrying. t.me/notes_veterans…
Please this thread is not a confirmation about what is actually happening, I'm just enjoying the increasing Russian panic.
Funny thing, when the Russians started their winter offensive. It took 3 weeks for people to notice.
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I discussed this yesterday with a few guys on my discord. Our conclusion was those are Leopard 2R mine clearing vehicles. We based that on the bulky camera and lack of main gun.
🚨Looking for tourniquets for training purposes in Ukraine. Send me a DM if you have anythign that could be useful to spare. The amount needed is unknown for me at the moment, waiting for clarification. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
So before people go crazy. No there is no cross-Dnipro offensive. There is no bridge head. There are scattered reports of UA forces having positions on the left bank of the Dnipro. This has happened since they liberated Kherson. It's a roadless swamp.
The only way to get in and out of the area is with boats. You can possibly walk too, but there are no roads. It's gonna look like roads when you check google, but they are animated to enhance paths you can travel.
This is the same as when people claimed Ukraine had a bridgehead months ago. Complete garbage.
Bakhmut
RuAF made some advances NW of the city towards the O0506 road and subsequently getting it in line of sight and under small arms fire control. It is possible they have all the approaches in to Bakhmut in visual range at this point. It's a matter of +/- 200m.
By applying an enhanced 3d view in google earth, we can get a good understanding of what is going on. My assessment is that isn't an optimal situation for Ukrainian forces.
When it comes to the city it self, a rough estimate is RuAF have captured about 1/3-1/4 of the city the last month. At the moment, the AFU are tying to hold the railway line from the east. RuAF are at the moment mostly advancing in the north, the south half is more stable.
Armored UA assault on RU positions in the Verkhn'okam'yans'ke area, with a VERY close call for a UA tank. Point blank tank -> trench combat. t.me/k_2_54/75
Previous UA positions at 48.878854754, 38.217068937
It's not a white flag, it's just junk stuck on a tree. It can be seen at 0:30ish