Ragıp Soylu Profile picture
May 12 4 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Turkey poll alert: PanoramaTR survey indicates:

• Kilicdaroglu: 47.9%
• Erdogan: 46.6%
• Ogan: 5.6%

Poll was conducted with 2,738 people on May 8-11.

2.4% margin of error Image
This poll was leaked to social media. The company didn’t publish it, only sent it to its subscribers.
Another Turkey poll from ORC which accurately predicted 2018 elections:

• Kilicdaroglu: 51.7%
• Erdogan: 44.2%
• Ogan: 2.8%
• Ince 1.3%

The survey was conducted on 10-11 May with 3920 respondents.

Margin of error: 1.8% +/- Image
Here is Optimar polling, which also accurately predicted 2018 elections

• Erdogan: 50.4%
• Kilicdaroglu: 44.7%
• Ogan: 3.4%
• Ince: 1.5%

Survey was conducted on 9-11 May, with 5950 respondents.

Margin of error: %1.8 +/- Image

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More from @ragipsoylu

May 13
Erdogan tonight recited the Holy Quran’s surah Al Baqarah at The Hagia Sophia

“Alif- Lâm- Mîm. This is the Book! There is no doubt about it, a guide for those mindful of Allah…”
Erdoğan at Hagia Sophia from a different angle

Another one

Read 4 tweets
May 13
One day to go to Turkey’s elections, and here is a thread of stories which I think is useful to understand what’s at stake.

First, what kind of a campaign does Erdogan run, and what does his close advisor think on the elections? Here is a gist

middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-el…
2- There are more than 5 million first time voters, the GenZ. And their political leanings might decide the future of the country

middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-el…
3- Kurdish voters are overwhelmingly support Kilicdaroglu according to the polls. Their mobilisation has given him a chance to stand up against Erdogan

middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-el…
Read 15 tweets
May 12
I talked to a senior Turkish opposition official on why Kilicdaroglu thinks there is a Russian interference in elections 🧵 1/

middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-el…
2- First, the official said Russia is helping Erdogan’s campaign promises by pumping dollars to Turkish Central Bank via Akkuyu power plant and energy payment deferrals
3- The opposition believes Putin’s speech at the Akkuyu nuclear power plant fuel delivery ceremony where he generously praised Erdogan is also bothering
Read 7 tweets
Mar 6
For sure it is an unlikely alliance.

You have a Republican Alevi candidate from Tunceli. The guy who introduced him is a political Islamist, he was the mayor when a pogrom was conducted against Alevis in Sivas.

You have former Erdogan comrades. And an ultranationalist
But in many ways it is a testimony that if there is a Republican Project that was intended by Ataturk and his friends, it succeeded.

A member of a long persecuted sect may become the next president of Turkey with the support of regime dissident Islamists.
The said candidate who was born in a village in Tunceli — the name comes from the military operation that killed thousands of Alevis in 1930s — state’s bronze hand— is now leading Ataturk’s party which conducted the very same military operation
Read 4 tweets
Mar 6
Operation Convincing Aksener is underway as Kilicdaroglu camp is trying to offer deals and receiving counter deals to patch up the wound that is called Table of Six
I know it doesn’t look much for people who aren’t Turkish. But we all are consumed by the Table of Six joint presidential candidate crisis since last week in Turkey.

It is basically 24/7 news right now. Nothing else is given any thought
Operation Aksener is on full steam as Istanbul and Ankara mayors are now in a meeting with her in Ankara, trying to convince her.

One proposal is to have Yavas and/Or Imamoglu as the vice presidential nominee along with Kilicdaroglu
Read 6 tweets
Feb 6
Pretty horrible situation in Turkey over all. There are hundreds of collapsed buildings in 10 cities.

No cell phone coverage in many cities and it is snowing in Malatya as rescue workers dig through the rubble.
Runway in Hatay airport per social media reports. CNNTurk says the airport is damaged
Hatay airport

Read 6 tweets

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