As I feared and tracked, #RIAH [#Russia-#Iran-#Assad-#Hezbollah] is going to kill a lot of #Syrian people in #Idlib with CW and without CW then falsely claim that RIAH is innocent, its CW as well as all its killing is fabricated.
Why I am saying this?
I clarify in this thread
1/ #RIAH [#Russia-#Iran-#Assad-#Hezbollah] prepared #Idlib Ops almost to perfection. But every criminal commits a mistake which exposes his crime. And RIAH committed a huge mistake. But first let me dive into RIAH's criminal mind.
2/ I grew up in war in #Lebanon and witnessed it, it took me time in retrospect to understand what happened. The disinformation campaign by Assad was huge I'll explain few things so that you understand RIAH's modus operandi and psychological warfare, its raison d'etre and effect.
So it seems #Idlib ops (divided into 3 stages) has been moved for a further date, giving me enough time to close the Iraqi news and return to #Syria, soon.
#Turkey failed to integrate al-Nusra, aka Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham, within rebels army (it might succeed at a certain point); failed to isolate al-Qaeda (Hurras el-Deen) & foreign fighters, incl Chinese Uyghur jihadists. So Erdogan turned against the #EU
Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow: 1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
Iranian militias in #Syria
By the beginning of 2012, with the increasing peaceful demonstrations the #IRGC began to feel the danger to the regime of its ally Assad and the major schisms within the #Assad army. Opposition sources estimate the number of dissidents at 150,000.1/12
Because of Assad's field losses, Tehran gave orders to #Hezbollah terrorist militia to conduct military intervention to save #Assad. It was the first direct military presence of the militia in southern #Damascus and the vicinity of Damascus International Airport.2/12 #Iran#USA
“Moderate rebels played a key role in Turkey’s fight against terrorists in Northern #Syria; their assistance and guidance will be crucial in Idlib as well”
2-Erdogan: “Preventing the assault on #Idlib need not set back counter-terrorism efforts. Turkey has succeeded in fighting terrorist groups, including ISIS and the PKK, without harming or displacing civilians”
Notice how he doesn’t include Nusra /al-Qaeda in above group
3- Erdogan: “Turkey’s ability to maintain order in Northern #Syria is proof that a responsible approach to counter-terrorism can win hearts and minds”
In order to truly understand the dynamic inside the #Syrian Armed Opposition, one must start to look into the ever closer marriage between the the Moslem Brotherhood and Nusra / al-Qaeda. Both have been joined at the hip through the sponsorship & support of #Qatar#Turkey ==>
2-Moslem Brotherhood (MB) lost its original military wing during the battle with the Syrian State in the 80’s. Best to think of Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda in #Syria today as the new military wing of the M Brotherhood. One is the brain, the other represents arms & legs of the same body
3-The coordination between MB & Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda has afforded the latter the chance to transform itself from non-state actor that had been hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan to an outfit with clear lines of communications to regional capitals that are supporting the MB
..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
..(a) #Turkey maintained credibility of the oppoaition (by that good cop-bad cop thing #Erdogan & #Putun played), (b) #Russia got his promise to deal w/ those attacking #Hmeymim (c) #Ankara received time to settle the major task of assorting militants (d)..
At #TehranSummit Erdogan asked Russia&Iran to allow time so Syrian opposition groups can surrender. This was agreed by Rouhani and Putin. Rouhani:"Mr Putin we should allow all the groups to surrender and give up their arms[as Mr Erdogan mentioned]." Putin:"Yes, absolutely."
Today Erdogan was humiliated by Putin again. Erdogan asked Iran&Russia to change the 3rd clause of the agreement but his request was refused by Putin: "No.We(indirectly he meant Erdogan)aren't representatives of the terrorist groups." #Russia and #Iran used #Turkey to gain more.
Erdogan wanted ceasefire in #Idlib in the statement/agreement, However Putin and Rouhani said: We would agree if Syrian opposition groups lay down arms and surrender.
Erdogan lost the game.He has no back up plans/allies as he has betrayed US and Turkey is all alone.
After #Turkey launched airstrikes against the #PKK in Iraq and Syria on 25 April 2017, the U.S. attended one of the bases in Syria to signal solidarity with PKK. The PKK made sure that the U.S. military was photographed with Shahin, one of PKK's most-wanted men.
If you imagine a U.S. General meeting with Naim Qassem, the deputy of #Hizballah, to plan anti-terrorist operations that leave Hizballah controlling most of the Israeli border, then picture #Israel's reaction; you have some idea what this does to #Turkey.
Our volunteers inside #Afrin confirm that #Turkish army has closed the border crossing in village of Nisria of Jindirese town, where #FSA fractions used to smuggle armament and people into #Turkey, after a dispute between smugglers. The smugglers have instead started to++
use the border crosssing at village of Hamam of the same town.
Sources on the ground told AAN that #Turkish troops closely collaborate with the smugglers to use the crossing into Turkey in exchange for $1.500 per person. The smuggling activities on the border with #Turkey++
video of which has just been released and been circulated on social media platforms, has increased after the recent operations by #YPG targeting terrorists and other local groups targeting both terrorists and their families.
Francona: #Syria would be insane to use chemical weapons in the assault on #Idlib governorate. Bashar al-Asad knows using chemical weapons will draw a military response from the United States, France and possibly the UK.
It’s hard to understand the absurdity, but it appears that as long as you only use barrel bombs, artillery, rockets, and missiles to kill, it is deemed almost acceptable, but cross that line and use chemicals, the ire of the world demands a military response. So why use them?
There is no military reason for the Syrians to use chemical weapons. With #Russia|n airpower, artillery, and rocket and missile strikes, combined with #Iran|ian and Hizballah support on the ground, the Syrian military has the required force to reassert control over Idlib.
#Lavrov now: De-confliction b/n #Russia & #US in #Syria wotking wrll, when there's a need Americans turn to us for explanations of certain things and we do the same
#Lavrov now: When we intervened in #Syria in Sep'15 #ISIS wad at the gates of #Damascus. Not a single power that are today raising voices about humanity, rights, etc moved their finger to prevent #Daesh from almost capturing the city & making it the capital of their caliphate
#Lavrov on @realDonaldTrump tweet on #Idlib: #Trump's right-we need to avoid a humanitarian crisis there. That's what we always try to do w/ humanitarian corridors & other coverups for civilians unlike Americans,say,in #Raqqa who just ironed the city. Now they want to cover Nusra
Thread Upsum #IRGC and #Hezbollah have trained hundreds of #SDF fighters who will be joining the #SAA offensive on the W. #Aleppo - #Saraqeb Axis. The deal was forged in August and immediately put to work.
It began back in July when an #SDF delegation met Gen. Ali Mamlouk in #Damascus. His coterie included the #SAA Coordination officer with #Iran-ian forces. He berated the SDF for dealing with Americans, called them “US agents” and asked them to "show loyalty" to #Syria.
Then, negotiations began when #SDF offered to take part in the forthcoming #Idlib offensive, as a way of building trust between both parties. In return, the #SAA would have to back up their claim for #Afrin. The idea sounded agreeable and tweaks began.
Ladies/Gent: don't bother. #USA killed many top AQ in #Idlib; is aware it is the biggest concentration & gathering of AQ; the US establishment is not fooled but fully aware of the situation. Thus, it will stand against any attack on Idlib, period.
Did you realise that if #USA bomb #Syria, the #idlib operation won't stop? The bombing would give a little boost to al-Qaeda that is on #Turkey#Russia#USA terrorist list but won't stop the end of #AQ and Jihadists control of #Idlib.
In October 2017, President Trump posed with a group of high-ranking military officers and cryptically declared that it was “#TheCalmBeforeTheStorm.” Most journalists puzzled over the remark for a moment and moved on to whatever chaos came next.
But that seemingly random comment was the spark for a what’s now become the new right-wing conspiracy theory du jour: “#TheStorm”
"..from my contacts w/ al Jubeir, other colleagues from the region it appears they all grew stronger in understanding that the reality is government of #Syria providing sovereignty & legitimate security interests of its country."
3/3 #Lavrov concludes: "#Russia always urged unity in #Arab family. Today the family has many problems. But we argue for it to live the way they want in their region. and resist attempts to have their own interests manipulated for the sake of someone else's geopolitical goals."
@Rob_Malley : “We were part of what fueled the Syrian conflict rather than stopped it”. The ex-Obama advisor proceeds to tell how he preferred to put more pressure on the regime (that he blames mostly for the conflict) not to use CW or Barrel Bombs
2-@Rob_Malley Talks about rationale of putting more pressure on the regime but offers no specifics. Sanctions were already slapped. All diplomatic channels were cut. Surely, all that could have been done to “change the behavior” of the regime has already been tried and used =>
3-@Rob_Malley Also ought to include the fact that Damascus would have cooperated on some of those demands that he made in the interview (cease barrel bombs) had the US and others pressured allies like #Turkey to control borders and stop infiltration of jihadists. Alas
If the Crimes #Turkey & mercenaries commited in Efrîn this week were committed in #Gaza, world would have been 2 small. This week alone dozens of kidnappings, civilians tortured to dead, pregnant women raped till they loose their child etc etc But it's Efrin so silence Only
A report even came out abt a slaughterhouse jail where Turk backed mercenaries under Turk Control torture men & women 24/7. Where people are SHOT on video to extort money from their relatives...A report came out abt horrible situation of Efrins Refugees💤🙈🙉🙊💤
But when YPG says we will never give up the fight to free Efrin from Occupation. Efrîn will be returned to its rightful inhabitants, idiots who are silent abt ANY & EVERY #TurkishWarCrime there scream: YPG threatens our NATO Ally.
1/ My 2 cents on #Turkey-#US relations and the GordonAfrin-knot
As I always say: The devil in the detail
Turkey knows it cannot rely on Russia & Assad for various reasons
1-Russia has expansionist endeavours
2-Assad will use #Kurds to get back #Afrin-#Jarablus
2/ Despite current #US sanctions on #Turkey, Turkey is in check if not checkmate.
It knows it cant trust Assad not to use #Kurds in case of reconciliation to re-gain territory from #Afrin to #Jarablus
3/ #Turkey's options is to "swallow the razor" and side with #US to halfway control #Kurds from attacking it. On the other side, US will not allow Turkey to attack #SDF in SDF areas.
2-Note that Lira’s fall has come after #Turkey achieved credit fueled 7.4% economic growth (one of fastest amongst G20). Higher growth brought more imports (all energy imported) and added to the persistently large trade/current account deficits. Such Deficits have to be funded
3-Funding need of #Turkey to pay for this trade/current account deficit is estimated at $230 Billion per year. This is what happens when you persistently import more than you expert. Foreigners suffering from low rates in G3 & in search of higher returns funded this deficit
2/ In North Lebanon, most Sunni support #Turkey, not Saudi.
They're the Sunni led by Mikati.
They're allies with #Hezbollah.
Pro-Saudi Hariri lost in N. #Lebanon.
Hezbollah is trying to substitute Hariri & get a Sunni Prime Minister who is a staunch pro-Hezbollah like Mikati.
3/ The other point is, that Tripoli has now a sea port. Hezbollah has prohibited anyone from having a sea port as they want to rule over all infrastructure, trade routes, border check-points, sea and airports but they allowed Tripoli in a deal that Sunni would be their allies.
Thread - Was #Syrian Ba’ath Party Economic Policy which was built on Self-reliance and local industry ahead of its time? Did that policy anticipate what we know now as the power of Western Economic Sanctions? Has Erdogan been lately repeating words taken from Baathist textbooks?
2-It’s hard to argue with possibility that the answers to all the above questions is in the affirmative. Coming from a Neo-Liberal Free Markets proponent like myself, I must admit to now seeing the political rationale behind deciding to shun globalization & purity of free markets
3-Having just listened to Erdogan’s lspeech calling on shunning imports and trying on local industry instead, one can’t help but see the similarities with the Baathist policies that I grew up with in #Syria . His attack on America and its economic power also sounded too familiar